Tp Share Discussion Threads

[mciw] 11/1/2018 22:20

PA, you are being a little thin skinned, it's a fact that unless you work in TPG's finance team, all analysis regarding revenue will be based on what is in the public domain, available to shareholders. Theoretically all companies are transparent and keep their shareholders fully updated and results day / trading updates are never a shock, but we all know this is not the case. I appreciate your analysis however and have added to my holding twice in the past couple of months so am hopeful that the projections / estimates pan out and we may even be exceed these.

[smokey 1o3] 11/1/2018 15:32

Pavey Ark
Keep it up I much appreciate your comments.

[pavey ark] 11/1/2018 14:21

On a more positive note it is nice to see the price ticking up but given the news flow over the last month it is still a much smaller rise than other companies seem to manage on ,what seems to me, less important news.

[pavey ark] 11/1/2018 14:09

"It doesn't look too outrageous to suggest that this unit could have a t/o of close to £20m this year.
With the two new MS companies fully engaged and engineering on the up the turnover could be close to £40m before we have any additional acquisitions."

I am neither dogmatic in my assertion that £40m is possible this year ,from existing businesses, nor am I blinded by my attempts to justify what was a simple reasoned and reasonable prediction based on a number of hard facts.

My prediction is large substantiated with very hard facts but not certain ( how could it be ?)

£3.5m from Polaris, Maritime going great guns, engineering book rising all building on a year end (2017) figure of c.£30m.

I continue to harp on about this in a rather sad fashion because of your meaningless and totally unsubstantiated comment and in this respect you are totally missing my point.

[catch007] 11/1/2018 09:20

Pavey unfortunately you miss the basic point that your numbers are not actuals they are based on your research and therefore there is a clear risk 'you may be some way out' as you do not have the finer detail it is your best guess. You seem to be blinded in attempts of your own justification with absolutely no need. I am not being critical of you at all.

The true trading picture will emerge this month and confirmed on final results. I think it best that we await the actual numbers at this juncture.

[fernandesb] 11/1/2018 00:23

Thanks SmartMoney100 so perhaps this year it will be the same time

[smartmoney100] 11/1/2018 00:14

Trading update 25 jan last year.

[fernandesb] 10/1/2018 23:46

Hi all could some one inform me when the next announcement will be made regarding trading for the financial year?









/

[pavey ark] 10/1/2018 21:44

Catch007, Both broker's estimates are for £29m this year and if we were missing that the management should have said by now.
Polaris had a turnover of £3.5m and are obviously confident of this at least being maintained or they would not have gone for such a large earn out proportion in their sale price .
I have given figures in great detail when I suggested the maritime should move closer to £20m a gain of £5m on my estimate for this year ( based on H1 figures and hard information since)
The engineering unit has increased its turnover considerably (45% increase over H1 2016) and even without factoring this in we are well on our way to £40m.
Of course we have no idea as to what is meant by "some way out"
From your recent post I see that you have managed to take my simple turnover prediction and mix it in with an earning scenario for the recent acquisitions you are also suggesting that unless there is an announcement I cannot assume orders have been placed and work carried out. After studying the results and announcements from TPG very closely for the last three years I am very confident in my assumptions and methodology.
These are not random thoughts and much more substantial (and substantiated) than mere guesstimates.
I am certainly not focused solely on the turnover but it is an important measure of where the company is going.
As I said before, I have given a substantial amount of detail and I would suggest that these are much more than a random,over optimistic, wish list.
I would expect matching detail if I am to reconsider my figures.

[catch007] 10/1/2018 19:05

Pavey my note was supportive of your analysis and echoes my own thoughts however unless you have actuals the numbers hypothesis can only be based on best guesstimates. As such we do not know of any smaller new contracts, renewals or maintenance service agreements nor do we know how the acquisitions have fared under new ownership whether they have been accretive to earnings or have needed close management and therefore cost impacts. There has been discussion on this thread around the operational centres and their capabilities, again we can only speculate hence my supportive view that we will see a positive outcome and not be too focused on your best turnover guesstimate (which I value as I have previously stated). I am keeping an open mind and like other value investors watching the upward trend that will hopefully bear fruit very soon.

[pavey ark] 10/1/2018 12:28

Unfortunately my estimate of c. £40m will almost certainly be lost in acquisition input but I certainly try to put some thought and substance to any figure I put out .
I am interested in the suggestion that I may be "some way out" .

I have given serious thought to input from the two acquisitions, brokers estimates, the engineering business and of course maritime.
More than willing to hear of a more conservative estimate with the relevent figures.

[catch007] 10/1/2018 12:11

Pavey's best guesstimates may be some way out however his underlying logic is very strong and in my view undeniable as it highlights a company undervalued and an share price that has not moved in line with the business. Hopefully we at seeing the signs of movement now following a series of positive announcements.

[bullster] 10/1/2018 09:39

.
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The bid is moving up nicely.




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[pavey ark] 09/1/2018 19:04

In 2016 maritime had a t/o of £12.2m and after the H1 results I expect the full year for 2017 to be c.£15m.
All very good I hear you say but I've been looking at the orders since the H1 results and I would suggest that these previous figures now look rather shabby.

The £6.9m order I've put £4m against 2018
The previous (Dec 2016) £5.3m BAE contract was over two year so £2.5m
The MoD contracts should run at c.£7m a year in total.
The recent orders £.7m £.9m £.77m = £2.37m
The July order of £1.9m was over two years so £1m
These add up to £17m and there are obvious additions to come from the large order book at the end of H1 together with any additional orders in H1 of this year to be completed before the year end!!

It doesn't look too outrageous to suggest that this unit could have a t/o of close to £20m this year.
With the two new MS companies fully engaged and engineering on the up the turnover could be close to £40m before we have any additional acquisitions.
With turnover in 2017 expected to be c.£30m TPG would have gone from £20m to £30m and then £40m in three successive years and this with an outlay on acquisitions of only £6m.

Impressive growth,very large order book and plenty of cash !!!
At the close of play today I calculate the Enterprise Value of TPG to be c.£23m

Methinks something not quite right here.

[paulgo] 09/1/2018 15:38

Thanks Larry, I wasn't aware of that.

[larry laffer] 09/1/2018 15:20

Paulgo

That's one of the changes brought about in MIFID2

tick tables have been modified to improve liquidity.

The old system of tick increments of 0.25p meant substantial change in market cap on very little liquidity. 0.25p was about 4%, clearly a ridiculous amount of change in bid/ask for a company whose mid price was roughly 6p

one of the better changes.

[fernandesb] 09/1/2018 14:10

Hi Pavey Ark,
Spread betting is very risky mainly because of the Volatility and spread,but if you get it right the profit can be substantial, because of the leverage element,the downside is that if you get it wrong you could be "wiped out".

[tday] 09/1/2018 14:05

Yes, the two 100,000 trades were both purchases.

[paulgo] 09/1/2018 13:57

The 6.25p trades are buys. I like the fact that the share price is not now just moving in .25p increments on the bid/offer; this suggests a little more fluidity

[catch007] 09/1/2018 09:51

Three contract announcements total £8.5m turnover alongside an acquisition announcement in a month. There is clearly a strong momentum building now and the fund raising cash has yet to be deployed. The cumulative activity impact on EBITDA should be significant and we can expect a positive set of results and full year trading outlook.

[grayako] 09/1/2018 09:41

Mon..Am had an RNS up this am at 07.00am today

[pavey ark] 09/1/2018 09:32

Fernandesb, good result and good luck to you.
I've never dabbled in spread betting and I find it hard enough to get my timing/decisions right using the old fashioned method.

[fernandesb] 09/1/2018 09:23

Hi Pavey Ark, I have a big spread bet apart from my substantial holding ,it is surprising what a small increase (0.20p) on the bid makes.

[pavey ark] 09/1/2018 09:21

"This contract is expected to be delivered during 2018 by the Company's engineering teams across the UK."
Am I reading too much into this but don't they usually just mention Portsmouth ?
Are they using Manchester perhaps for specific components they previously had to source outwith the company ?
Just a thought.