Tp Share Discussion Threads

[pavey ark] 08/12/2017 11:54

Cerrito, I did have a look at all the main defence contractors and they all had a very poor November share performance.
As you correctly pointed out TPG has substantial, long term contracts in the bag and as Simon Kings pointed out , the initial order for their equipment may be a couple of million (which is nice) but you are then in for up to thirty years of repeat income worth many times more than the head line figure.
Trident, Astute fleet, French fleet, TKMS orders, Far East (very twitchy and concerned over N Korea ) Australian 12 boat fleet.
As I previously posted I expect the Maritime unit to be close to or over £5m EBITDA this year yet if you give away the rest of the business for nothing and take out the cash it is currently valued at under £15m.
Even if you value the rest of the business at a very, very silly £5m you get a world class, defence contractor with a large order book and little or no competition for twice its current EBITDA.
I'm at a loss but I think that people may be caught in the headlights here.
Still open to any doubts, info or concerns people may have.
Nothing is certain especially on AIM so there may be something lurking but I can't see it.

[cerrito] 08/12/2017 11:21

I am not selling either-sold about 20% of my holding at 6.5+ in July.
The question which I am having difficulty answering is why am I not buying at these levels, given that I bought some in May at 7p+ and no negative news since then apart from arguably the equity raising. I need to see if that is apart from apathy and indecision on my part.
With quite a concentrated shareholder register and roughly 0.0005 of the shares being traded everyday the share price will not always be an accurate reflection.
Is it being affected by question marks on defence suppliers a la Ultra? Perhaps but logically in this case given Trident exposure and overseas sales should not be.
I too look forward to people's views on this.

[pavey ark] 08/12/2017 11:06

TM , I think that peopled expect things to move a bit quicker on the acquisition front (myself included) and it didn't help that management did say :-
" The Directors have identified over 20 potential acquisition opportunities
and have entered discussions with ten. All targets are intended to
be accretive to earnings in the first full year following acquisition
and cash generative"

They did follow this up with the prediction that ONE of the acquisitions would/could be completed before the year end.

I think we focused on the first statement and skipped over the second.

My money is for some sort of an announcement/update next week.

As a fairly substantial and relatively long term investor I am very happy with progress made and being made by the company.
My preferred route would have been more acquisitions like the February one , build up the MS unit and use cash they had to continue the improvements in the engineering unit.
Under my model I could have seen a steady but substantial improvement without the need for more cash.

The reason for the relatively large fund raising was in some part due to encouragement from the MoD and the tier 1 defence contractors as they wanted to deal with a substantial tier 2 contractor (TPG ?) and not a very large number of small contractors.
With this background and cash in hand the advantage is certainly with TPG.
Perhaps the delay is due to the reluctance of the small companies to recognise their relatively weak position ?

[pavey ark] 08/12/2017 10:08

It's a funny old world and certainly funny,in a very odd way,when it comes to company valuation, especially on AIM.
On the positive side there would be little point in investing in shares if every company was correctly valued.
Perhaps I'm missing something (a lot ?)and I'm not being funny but I would really like to hear from anyone selling at these levels.
Hopefully a reasonable debate could follow these posts but it would certainly be OK if people just expressed their fears/concerns and left it at that.

[timojelly] 06/12/2017 14:58

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2017/06/01/tips-and-ideas/share-tips/tips-of-the-week/just-the-tip-of-tp-s-value-iceberg-uN5EMvxhbXcC6oOCwcS11L/article.htmlThat was at 6.5p earlier this year.

[swiss paul] 05/12/2017 21:53

IC = Kiss of death

[timojelly] 05/12/2017 16:50

And it drops

[justiceforthemany] 05/12/2017 14:43

Strongly tipped by Investors Chronicle. Update and further acquisition due before year end. Earnings and profits enhancing. The market usually likes 'growth' shares. Lets see what happens. With the large cash pile very attractive and susceptible to a bid.

[justiceforthemany] 05/12/2017 14:41

Market cap of £40M. The company holds £28M in cash; 2/3rds of the market cap.

[justiceforthemany] 05/12/2017 14:40

Technically very oversold. RSI of 12 ONLY.

[pavey ark] 05/12/2017 09:09

There has been a trading update in the first half of December ( 9th & 14th ) in 2015 and 2016.
I am expecting an update this year with details of an acquisition or details of progress.
Brokers' estimates for EBITDA in 2017 are £2.5m and £2.6m.
I'm looking for slightly higher ( ever the optimist ) but with the loss making units now moving into profit and Maritime going full steam ahead I could certainly see the pre fund raising business having an EBITDA of £4m -£5m next year.

We will see what the £25m+ acquisition programme adds to this.

[timojelly] 05/12/2017 07:48

It's all go isn't it.

[napoleon 14th] 02/12/2017 17:08

Chart looks a pile of pooh!

[blockchain] 02/12/2017 16:33

4.5p target - SAYS THE CHART

[napoleon 14th] 02/12/2017 11:59

No news is NOT good news.
At the risk of missing out, I'm close to moving to another stock that has a life!

[timojelly] 29/11/2017 06:14

I know from experience that if you are under a takeover is 'business as normal' but you are held in no man's land so to speak as you have no one with authority to make decisions. Just speculation on my part.

[timojelly] 29/11/2017 06:12

Strangely quite from TPG... I wonder if someone is sniffing around the company and any additional acquisitions are on hold?...

[timojelly] 27/11/2017 09:59

What a numpty! Move along now

[blockchain] 27/11/2017 07:20

SOME BAD NEWS AHEAD - SAYS THE CHART

[richie32] 22/11/2017 16:41

Seems TP are in a good position to pick up business

[cerrito] 20/11/2017 23:49

sorry PA
I have missed reference to Thin Prime contract news...where did you read about it?
Thanks

[pavey ark] 20/11/2017 16:01

I said I wouldn't post until further news but I must point out that there has been significant and very positive news.
It was bad enough that most were unable to grasp that TPG were being paid £770k to do research into air management systems but now we have the Thin Prime contract news and that would seem to have been ignored even though it is likely to be very lucrative and a long term source of income.
I really did despair when I saw what I thought were sales at this silly price but I've just bought shares for my grandson's account and was very surprised to get them for 5.75p.......something strange going on ?
Not likely to be any more strange than the lack of appreciation of the recent important news items.

[timojelly] 17/11/2017 18:34

The Maritime division obviously doing very well.