Tp Share Discussion Threads

[trentendboy] 18/12/2017 07:45

Interesting. Means they may also be taken out especially at these low prices

[pavey ark] 17/12/2017 19:40

catch007, thanks for that.
I've always thought the directors were focused but as far as the trigger point of the options is concerned the price has to be above 9.15p for twenty consecutive trading days so realistically the price has to be closer to 11p for them to meet this target.
As far as the current year is concerned,the average of the two brokers covering TPG is for £2.6m EBITDA but picking up on the current positive tone I wouldn't be surprise to see closer to £3m.
Only down side is the £300k hit in H1 to reorganise MS and integrate the new acquisition. The house broker has suggested a further £200k in H2 but this should mean that Polaris and subsequent acquisitions slot into place more easily.

Re: Acquisitions
Interesting piece today on BBC website about MoD not meeting cost savings etc
Perhaps strangely I see this as good news for TPG at this point and I read recent statements from them as a bit of a warning shot to the companies they are looking at.

From the fund-raising document:-
"The Directors understand that both the Government and the tier-1 contractors are keen to see a rationalisation of their supply chains and would therefore welcome a consolidator amongst the lower tiers of the supply chain and believe that TP Group, with a stronger balance sheet, would be well placed to be such a consolidator"

[catch007] 17/12/2017 16:22

Pavey, I have been accumulating shares in TPG for the past three years and recently been buying again at prices I consider to be well below the sum of the parts as you have IMO correctly pointed out. The news is being carefully drip fed into the market in a carefully co ordinated communications plan to gain market attention. We are yet to see the trading update and I hope this is positive news flow. A couple of points of note: a) The Directors subscribed for the fund raising and are underwater at the current price b) The share options target trigger I believe is 9.15p both of these will bring a management focus to enhance the share price Unless there has been a catastrophic failure in the contracts pipeline status it is hard to see a further negative EBITDA in this years results. I am relatively relaxed on the acquisition front far better to buy a real quality business which will directly enhance earnings but takes mid term negotiation than waste investors money on quick borderline deals. Thank you for your posts they are informative and draws attention to the underlying value inherent in this company. The shares are due for a rerating very soon by the market and hopefully will reward long term holders.

[mfhmfh] 15/12/2017 17:05

Bought in today. GLA

[pavey ark] 15/12/2017 16:57

I can make a very robust case for 10p now but given the reaction to the current news it is difficult to see a rapid rise in the share price.If people haven't bought on this new I don't know what will make them buy.Perhaps people would like to wait to see hard figures set before them, or more likely, as tip in the financial press.Prudence has its place but if the share price does rise swiftly hope we don't get"I wish I had bought at 6p"

[timojelly] 15/12/2017 14:24

I'll be very surprised if we are still under 10p this time next year Pavey.

[pavey ark] 15/12/2017 12:10

Nap14,you could easily have made money here but perhaps you simply got your timing wrong or misread the situation.
I'm always taken with the idea that,with hindsight, money would have been better used elsewhere.
We are never going to agree if our time horizons are completely different.
This company has made absolutely fantastic progress and has set itself up for even more accelerated gains IF they can get their acquisitions right.
At the time of the fundraising they said that they would complete ONE ACQUISITION before the year end....they have.
They are not going into Tescos to shop,they are taking great care and I suspect they are playing hardball.
My point to you is that you seemed to be fixating on the fund raising and acquisition and I was pointing out that there is so much good stuff going on that any reasonable investor must be happy with the progress being made,with the ADDED BONUS of a thoughtful, skilled, earnings enhancing acquisition programme up and running.

I will certainly admit that it is your money to do with what you wish but right now I ,as a value investor, consider this a fantastic, low risk investment which has upside potential out of all proportion to any downside.

Warning you may have to wait a 12/18 months to double your money so perhaps you have other shares to consider.

[napoleon 14th] 15/12/2017 09:41

Pavey, I don't contest what you say for one second, but I still think 'at last'.
The merits and demerits of a company can be seen in many different ways.
Regarding the merits and demerits of a share, the subject is far more clear cut...

Has it made me money or not?
Simples, IMO, and in the case of TPG the simple answer to date is NO.

I have other investments that also require patience, but TPG have taken up
space in my PF which would have been far better used by any number of shares.
TPG raised a whole load of money for reasons not yet justified in any way.

Progress has been made independently of this which is good, and just as well, as a
substitute for the reasons for the relatively large fundraising.

At last indeed......

[bullster] 14/12/2017 17:45

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Pavey Ark,

Try this one:-




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[pavey ark] 14/12/2017 16:28

The RNS I was looking for was the one saying that they would beat market expectations this year but now I don't care.
Next year they will , in my opinion, blow all forecasts out of the water.

The comments I see like "at last" and "more like it" suggest that people are especially taken by today's announcement but they obviously failed to appreciate the thin prime announcement, the $1m to do research for an overseas customer (where is that leading?) the significance of the £700k order which looks like a refit order, the Polaris deal which greatly strengthens the high margin MS business they are building.
Even today's announcement requires a bit of thought and appreciation of the Manchester angle.
They have had large orders of this magnitude before and they are great but there are many other irons in the fire and people should consider them.
This management has been very active and continues to produce the goods.

[grinley boy] 14/12/2017 15:25

just had a thought, maybe they are doing the twelve days rns of Christmas!!

[richie32] 14/12/2017 12:39

All looking good. Dividends within 2 years perhaps?

[bullster] 14/12/2017 11:57

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Consolidation of (ETA) ?,
How many members ?.








Polaris Consulting was a member of the TP Group (TPG) Enterprise Technical Alliance (ETA).

(ETA) has been selected as one of 11 companies to form part of the MOD’s Submarine Enduring Naval Design Partnering (ENDP).


TPG has founded the ETA from a group of Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to deliver independence, simple contracting, agility and responsiveness as well as collaborative working and value for money through small and large-scale support.

The ETA will provide the newly established Submarine Enduring Naval Design Partnering team (ENDP) with the best technical expertise to undertake:-

pre-concept and concept study submarine design and technology studies, and
through-life technical support work for RN Submarines, their systems and equipment.
Supporting the MOD in undertaking through-life technology management studies.


TPG and the ETA members have the experience, know-how and expertise to design, manufacture and deliver mission-critical systems to the most demanding standards, across all stages of the CADMID lifecycle. We draw from experienced and highly competent resources to deliver our services and engineering solutions, working in partnership with our customers helping them achieve their goals – over a 20 or 30-year equipment lifetime.

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[napoleon 14th] 14/12/2017 11:27

Nice one. At last...

[pavey ark] 14/12/2017 10:34

From the BAe contact news £5.3m Dec 2016

"The contract commences immediately and will be delivered over the next two years by the Group's engineering team in Portsmouth."

One year later we have an additional contract for £6.9m and I can only assume it is from BAe but this was not disclosed in the announcement.

"This contract will ease the delivery of the overall programme by aligning the skills and competences of our engineering businesses in Portsmouth and Manchester with our delivery partners."

Now the big thing here isn't the £6.9m contract, nice though it is, but that some of the contract is to be completed at Manchester where TPG's more traditional(but now high tech) engineering work is carried out.

The Trident programme is worth £40 billion over the next 25 years and tiny TPG is one of BAe's 12 or so "trusted" suppliers.
If we are in for work other than the submarine gas management side this is big news.

The traditional engineering unit lost £1m last year (restructuring)
The new MS unit lost over £1m (last of the old compressor losses)

The engineering unit had reduced losses to £227k in H1 and the new MS unit (which includes the old compressor business) is expected to break even in H2.
Maritime is looking at an EBITDA of £5m in current year.

My rather laboured point is that we could have £6m +£1m +£1m EBITDA from these next year less £1.2m unallocated central costs gives EBITDA of £6.8m.

Lets call it £6m to be on the safe side.
The current estimate is for £2.6m this year

All of the above is without touching the funds raised as both acquisitions completed this year could have come from existing cash.

I don't think Ive seen a company deliver better or more significant news than TPG has delivered this year.

[bullster] 14/12/2017 09:53

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Zak Mir might get one right, for a change, albeit delayed.




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[grinley boy] 14/12/2017 09:45

The last paragraph points to positive optimism in trading in all areas of the group:

"We are delighted to continue our participation in such a critical, long-term programme within the UK defence sector. This contract will ease the delivery of the overall programme by aligning the skills and competences of our engineering businesses in Portsmouth and Manchester with our delivery partners.

"The scale and importance of such a contract also improves production visibility at our facilities, in addition to continuing the positive trading momentum currently being experienced across the Group."

[fernandesb1] 14/12/2017 08:50

2 contracts of £700000 plus £770000 and this contract of £6.9 million is equal to £8.37million

[larry laffer] 14/12/2017 08:29

Thats more like it.

£7m

[molatovkid] 14/12/2017 08:24

Heading in the right direction for sure....I have an order in for a few

[pavey ark] 14/12/2017 07:37

Very significant as it isn't just for Portsmouth but Manchester is mentioned.
As I have said before, the only slight drag on TPG was the time taken to reorganise the engineering unit.
Everything management said would happen is happening.
This is a very important contract and puts the cap on a great year for TPG.

[timojelly] 14/12/2017 07:29

' in addition to continuing the positive trading momentum currently being experienced across the Group.'Important statement

[fernandesb1] 14/12/2017 07:24

This seems to be a big contract

[paulgo] 14/12/2017 07:08

CONTRACT WIN

TP Group secures GBP6.9m defence contract

TP Group (AIM: TPG), the specialist services and engineering group, is pleased to announce that it has been awarded a GBP6.9m contract to supply equipment to a major UK defence contractor.

The contract, which commences immediately, is part of a critical long-term defence programme and is expected to be completed over the next two years by the Company's engineering team.

Phil Cartmell, Chief Executive Officer of TPG commented:

"We are delighted to continue our participation in such a critical, long-term programme within the UK defence sector. This contract will ease the delivery of the overall programme by aligning the skills and competences of our engineering businesses in Portsmouth and Manchester with our delivery partners.

"The scale and importance of such a contract also improves production visibility at our facilities, in addition to continuing the positive trading momentum currently being experienced across the Group."