Totally Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 08/11/2018 22:46

"So still a work in progress and they need to land a big fish but with a market cap of less than £10m it seems to be all in the price."


Exactly..

Scale should come as NHS roll out IUC... as well as cross selling opportunities...
Look at the journey so far and the coverage map..

There are over 200 CCGs, Vocare have contracts with around 10%.. still early days..

[gowlane] 08/11/2018 22:27

Indeed Sikh, this business needs scale it seems.

So still a work in progress and they need to land a big fish but with a market cap of less than £10m it seems to be all in the price.

[sikhthetech] 08/11/2018 21:16

gl,

It's early days... The reverse takeover of Vocare was ONLY a year ago...

As long as they continue with their strategy then they should be ok..

Building the right OOH provider isn't going to be done anytime soon... It takes time..
The NHS is slow -

[sikhthetech] 08/11/2018 21:03

1gw,

"informed opinion"..lol

oh dear, your egotistical cheerleading really showing again, isn't it...
You really think you are something and everyone else must be beneath you...


I'll remind you of my post..


sikhthetech - 23 Sep 2018 - 13:26:11 - 8861 of 9646 RHYTHMONE - new Name, new Beginning??? - RTHM
Oh dear 1gw...
Losing that Cheerleader status has really hurt you, hasn't it, 1gw...

It may come as a huge surprise to you but this is a BB and everyone is entitled to an opinion..
It may also come as a surprise that readers are entitled to disagree with you ..

Why do you get upset when readers disagree with you??

Grow up....

[gowlane] 08/11/2018 20:55

Cheers Sikh and 1gw for your responses earlier, very much appreciated.

From what I can see of the results, they seem to be more or less holding on, but they probably need a sizeable new contract.

Now if they can turn Vocare around soon I would imagine that will be a big selling point for them. We need that.

They were a little misguided over this buyback business though, and have cheesed the market off a bit as a lot of people seemed to buy in on that signal.

But if you are not generating surplus cash, it is of course pointless.

It has all taken longer than we hoped, anyway I am still in but have lightened up.

[1gw] 08/11/2018 20:38

Indeed they should, but everybody can also learn stt. Justin appears to have gone from naively believing the cash balance in relation to market cap was a key indicator of low risk, to appreciating the significance of the net current liability position.

You could maybe take a leaf out of his book there and take some time to understand the financial characteristics of your investment here? Then dare I say you might be better placed to have an informed opinion?

[sikhthetech] 08/11/2018 20:18

oh that's ok then...

for a minute there I thought you were suggesting that he was talking sense after having read YOUR posts...and suggesting that others should follow your lead as well...


"Seems to be talking a lot of sense. Has he perhaps been pointed in the direction of some of the posts on here?"


EVERYONE SHOULD FORM THEIR OWN OPINION...

[1gw] 08/11/2018 19:58

[edited]
No, I'll be more likely to be buying. The balance sheet is a big negative, but in my mind TLY is still a good, if highly speculative, investment so I may be trying to average down a bit more.

[sikhthetech] 08/11/2018 19:46

So Justin Waite posted his concerns about the balance sheet and sold....

Nothing wrong with that.... It's his opinion, it's his money..


1gw, given you obviously SHARE his DEEP concerns, I assume you will be following his actions and too will be selling 1st thing tomorrow morning. All 5 lots obviously.

[1gw] 08/11/2018 19:14

Justin Waite podcast.

The pundit that delboy pointed us to last time round has done another podcast in which he explains why he has sold his TLY position. Since the last one, which went on about how much of the market cap was sitting in cash, he has learned a bit about the balance sheet and in this one he explains the net current liability issue, how it has deteriorated since the full-year results and why it worries him.

Seems to be talking a lot of sense. Has he perhaps been pointed in the direction of some of the posts on here?

Worth a watch for all those of you who have found my postings on the subject too difficult or think I'm making it all up. It's only the first 7 minutes that you need to watch to get the story.

I'm sure delboy was meaning to post the link in due course.

[spacedust] 08/11/2018 16:20

12p next stop?

[nobbygnome] 08/11/2018 16:03

>> STT

And at the risk of sounding like a broken record the awarding of these contracts is imminent. Of course the timing is completely out of their control but should lead to a rerating.

It's not a question of if but when......

[sikhthetech] 08/11/2018 15:04

gl,

also..


The BoD have over 100yrs HEALTHCARE experience between them...

[sikhthetech] 08/11/2018 14:54

Nobby,

"There are a limited no of companies who can bid for these contracts"

Exactly, with new IUC requirements..

[sikhthetech] 08/11/2018 14:36

gl,

"what is your take on the way things are going"...

My opinion..


TLY's stated AIMs are to become a leading OOH provider...
NHS plans include reducing bed blocking, unnecessary A&E appointments, Prevention...
The NHS is a political football so every goven will use it to show they have done the best for it.... Just throwing money at the NHS and not changing their processes is futile...

There are several layers of bureaucracy within the NHS and this needs to be taken into account... There is also a lot of inertia, so when contracts are won, there is a reluctance to change.... It doesn't mean it NEVER happens...


They are IN THE PROCESS of adding and building the company with the aim of becoming the 'leading provider'... The strategy is not complete... they are using a similar strategy used at Mears...

Vocare was part of that aim simply because the NHS' NEW IUC requirements, which I believe only came into affect in May THIS year....(see presentations from last year)
I believe they paid a lot less than they originally were expecting to for Vocare because there were issues to resolve....




The RMS provided by About Health is another area where the NHS is looking to promote to save money...

Physio is also promoted as a 'prevention'...

TLY services included non-NHS, ie HMP and charity orgs..


TLY are there at the right time with the right mix of businesses..


Once they have COMPLETED their strategy then would be the time to judge whether they have been successful or not...


I think any political risk is over played.

[1gw] 08/11/2018 14:28

STT - 6408

That's entirely consistent with what I was saying in the "magic money tree" post isn't it? In fact that or another similar document was where I got my numbers for the asset valuations and breakdown.

The "magic money tree" tag was in relation to how missing their expectations on acquisition profitability has allowed them to create material profit which effectively obscures big losses elsewhere.

What do you think of TLY's accounting treatment as a way of presenting the company's financial position?

[1gw] 08/11/2018 14:22

gowlane - 6399

As I understand it, earn-outs on AH and PPH are both profit-based. 7xPBT for AH and 7xEBITDA for PPH, both based on financial years ending 31st March.

So initial payments based on 7x historic number and then to the extent that each successive year's PBT/EBITDA is higher then they get 7x the increment.

So the fact that neither paid out in FY18 means that FY18 PBT for AH was flat or below FY17 and FY18 EBITDA for PPH was flat or below FY17.

In the AH deal there was a clawback, so that if FY18 PBT was less than 80% of FY17 PBT then TLY get a clawback on the FY19 payout - but I haven't seen any indication that this has been triggered.

The PPH deal had a different sort of safety mechanism. TLY promised to pay a total of £6.75m in total (with a final balancing payment after the last contingent payment) but the sellers warranted that they would do at least £964,285.71 EBITDA for 1 of the 4 FYs 2016-19. If they don't (and the revaluation says TLY don't believe they will) then consideration is capped at that already paid including the FY19 one (if FY19 EBITDA is less than any of the earlier years) or at 7xFY19 EBITDA otherwise.

So a good structure from TLY's point of view I think. Effectively they were expecting to pay 7x the max PBT/EBITDA achieved over the 4 years. Clearly the acquisitions haven't performed as hoped and so the consideration provision is being reduced. If they can get that performance, but just delayed 1 or 2 years, then great for TLY. If AH and/or PPH are instead now in decline, then not so good, but at least the deal structure has provided some mitigation.

May contain errors. DYOR.

[sikhthetech] 08/11/2018 14:16

gl,

compare what THE COMPANY is saying on pgs 84-87 to 1gw's "Magic Money Tree" post #6354...


Pages 84-87 of Vocare Admission Doc..

[nobbygnome] 08/11/2018 14:14

As I keep on saying everyone should bear in mind that the awarding of the IUC contracts are imminent. The biggest of these is £96 million over 5 years so these are sizeable contracts which will transform Vocare. There are a limited no of companies who can bid for these contracts so it will be very surprising if TLY don't win a reasonable no of the 12 which are available. They told me they weren't bidding for all 12 so I presume they are only bidding for the ones which they think will be more profitable.

I wouldn't like to be short if TLY announced they have been awarded a contract for £96 million.....

[football] 08/11/2018 14:03

hybrasil Yep you're right every seller there is a buyer and we all know that too well over at R1 will share price has gone from £20 plus down to £1.60-ish lots of people buying all the way down trying to court the bottom

[hybrasil] 08/11/2018 13:59

I think the interesting thing here is the sheer volume of trade in the shares. For every seller there is a buyer and nearly 3% of the company has changed hands today alone

[football] 08/11/2018 13:38

gowlane like a mini STT popping up on his shoulder and patted him on the back and reinforcing is posts where ever he goes it's like you could be the same person thinking the same thing



But there I go again with conspiracy theories with gangs of shorter's and rampers here using multiple ids to fool mug punters.


I don't believe that happening even though STT screams it constantly that everyone's got a different ID and is part of a gang, how's that saying go but never far from home to a rooster something

[gowlane] 08/11/2018 13:07

Cheers Sikh, what is your take on the way things are going, apart from the share price of course, which is disappointing for everybody.

As I understand the narrative, they are labouring away trying to get Vocare sorted out operations wise, so as to get good inspection grades.

After which (if they pull that off) they hope to win more and bigger contracts, increase revenues, benefit from economies of scale, cash flows and hopefully profits.

Not saying that is what is necessarily going to happen, but is that how you see it?

[1gw] 08/11/2018 12:48

Microscope - but wouldn't you have thought the company could have shown a bit more initiative and provided a cash bridge itself - so everyone could see that there really was strong underlying cash generation (if there was) before restructuring or whatever other costs are in the operating cost line?