Tlou Energy Share Discussion Threads

[donkey40] 22/9/2020 20:32

Whizz and My1stmillion - bear in mind we were told the Interim PPA was agreed save for remaining Housekeeping points prior to the last fund raise. But we were not told that probably more wells would be required to assist with the dewatering process prior to the last fund raise.

Disingenuous yet again ...!!! I guess they feel they no longer have even a moral responsibility towards shareholders ....

It’s amazing they still peddle and preach the “compelling opportunity” the company has in Bots... Over 10 years now

[donkey40] 22/9/2020 17:21

Another nail in The Coffin, given that Tlou has sat around, spent loads, but not actually achieved any commercial success.



“The Council for Geoscience (CGS) on September 21 launched Phase 2 of the Karoo Deep Drilling and Geo-environmental Base Programme (KDD), in Beaufort West.

The council, as mandated by the Department of Minerals and Energy, in 2016 initiated the research programme to investigate the resource potential of the Karoo basin, which is anticipated to have between 30-trillion and 500-trillion cubic feet (tcf) of shale gas, and possibly uranium, methane or coal resources, according to the Petroleum Agency of South Africa“

[donkey40] 22/9/2020 09:21

Have yet to read through the entire Annual Report but headline news, which I am surprised nobody (on LSE) seems bothered about is the $10m impairment on 3 leases and the Material Uncertainty expressed by the auditors.

They have recently drilled 2 horizontal wells at an approx cost of $6m and both the Chairman and MD make comment in their reports that additional wells are likely required to facilitate dewatering and getting to commercial flow rates. So without spending that money (which they don’t have), the remaining Exploration & Evaluation balance of $48m is unlikely to ever be recoverable via commercial operations.

Assuming that was the case, then how much might the company onward sell this data set? Answer - depends on whether they have a PPA that any Buyer would trust...

This seems the only way out now imo ....

[donkey40] 21/9/2020 09:23

“However, it is anticipated that the drilling of additional wells in the area will facilitate the dewatering process.”

and

“However, it became apparent that additional dewatering wells would more than likely be required to speed up the dewatering process in order to potentially flow higher rates of gas.”

So finally we know - more wells going to be needed. Also I did laugh at the “forward thinking Govt” comment - so forward thinking that maybe this will all take another 5 years before any gas is used to make power.

Goodness I do hope the AGM is open to the floor for questions ....

[donkey40] 17/9/2020 23:04

More criticism of BPC. Some will say it demonstrates the opportunity for Tlou. That opportunity has been there for over 10 years, so for me the question really is Why are Govt not allowing IPPs to help solve the problem....

“Through 2 separate tolls, namely the Govt National Electricity Standard Cost Levy and the Standard Domestic Charge, BPC taxes Botswana a staggering average of P223 million per year to cover a part of its operating costs. In addition to this, electricity tariffs are hiked significantly every year to cover for BPCs endless losses and perennial mess. {imo tariffs are not hiked every year}

BPC was given P800 million last year, a decline from P1.4 billion in 2018. While over P11 billion was spent on Morupule B and a further P8 billion shared between it and the older power station on the same premises, the power plant is still dysfunctional. Morupule B was supposed to have an output of 600MW. Consequently BPC imports over 580MW of electricity mainly from S Africa, the SAPP and Nampower in Namibia. The cost of the power imports pile up to a staggering P250 million per MONTH, which means approx P3 billion is blown on power imports in 12 months. The taxpayer foots this huge sum of money because of the mess at Morupule B where delays never end. While the 600MW expected from Morupule B was expected to cushion the taxpayer from losing so much money, its completion remains pie in the sky.“

[donkey40] 16/9/2020 16:07

The options are not traded, massively out of the money, and only idiots like you lot spend countless lines talking waffle about the process various different Brokers follow re recognising them.

Amazingly, the Brokers have been handling this sort of stuff for a very long time now. Only navel gazing Tlou shareholders, led by Brad seem to think there is a problem...

Really guys, come on !!

[donkey40] 16/9/2020 13:43

BPC own the transmission line /grid in Botswana so I think it is highly likely they will have their own panel of approved Contractors / suppliers that they allow to work on any aspect of both. I suspect therefore MM are putting the tender out to a list (unlikely to be that many names thereon) of known 3rd parties.

As ginko rightly said - is this newsworthy. But those salaries do need to be justified ...

Or perhaps (I ain’t certain yet) is another one of those disingenuous announcements /comments I do love about Tony and team.

[donkey40] 16/9/2020 13:35

Try understanding them Tlou brain - they are pointing out Why Tlou isn’t managing to get going in Botswana (the macro situation obvious to me for past few years) v idiots like you and yer mates posting blue sky BS in 2016 and 2017 and intermittently in 2018 and 2020. At least most of you have shut up in 2020, thank goodness.

Oh and yup, yet again, another of your shoot the messenger posts. Will you ever post anything about Tlou .... Be a sport, give it a try ...

[the manini] 16/9/2020 13:15

Or maybe death by a thousand boring biased posts donkey? Take ya pick.

[ginko3] 16/9/2020 08:27

is todays rns really newsworthy wey hey they've written a document c'mon bod SPEED THINGS UP!!

[donkey40] 15/9/2020 20:16

(PS Hoping one day you will actually add something of value to the Botswana /Tlou discussion Brad.)

[donkey40] 14/9/2020 09:59

Whizzer - you would like the PPA and funding for what sorted out by the time of next quarterly ?

Interim 2mw PPA or 10MW PPA &/or with solar element....

If all these potential PPAs are ‘lines in the water’, would you care to comment how you see funding being negotiated? Do you think a funder is going to agree funding for poles and wires for an interim, presumably short term 2mw PPA, which probably isn’t cost competitive in the Long run? Any funder isn’t simply just going to lend against a compelling investment opportunity’; rather they will lend to a project or company with commercial contracts which demonstrate cash flows sufficient to repay the loans etc and where credit risk of Tlou’s offtaker is assessed as strong. Currently that is BPC, who as we all know are technically insolvent and dependent upon Govt support in order to remain as a going concern.
So any lender to Tlou is surely going to want some sort of reassurance or guarantee that BPC will pay Tlou for electricity supplied.
I think if you would focus more on commercial realities of life, instead of gobbing off endlessly re sack the board, you might start to realise how complex the whole energy supply chain is in general and In Botswana in particular (where cash is hard come by).

Brad - sane goes for you. Stop prattling about Covid and inability to have a meeting. Or flow rates and especially dewatering. Yes they may be part of the mix but they are the fluff rather than the meat on the bone...

MickyMouse / Tidd / Buzz - yup you guys were marked as stock promoters (probably encouraged by .....) long time back. Basically you are scum of the earth imo.

[donkey40] 13/9/2020 12:20

Clueless - one on the board of directors and one on the LsE message board.

Clever hook Thorn - he didn’t answer directly. Instead he went into a usual rant about irrelevance.

Once Covid is out of the way (which it won’t be for a heck of a long time), the next excuses will be because the time frame to commercialisation is outlined in the IRP 2020 plan. And so they will continue plodding along fitting in with that, except that there are 2 problems:

1. What happened all the previous rhetoric (sorry bullS...) about other PPAs and connecting to the grid is all that matters ... (hence me regularly saying the announcements are disingenuous)

2. Elections will be held in 2024 and based on 2018/19 experience, I doubt any major investment commitments will be made until after 2024 elections.

Remember the 5GW solar JV with Namibia is not yet at pre-feasibility planning. First that (ie desktop studies); then feasibility studies; then public consultation; then revisions; then out for tender; tender approval; then bankable feasibility study; then ..... we will all probably be dead.

[donkey40] 12/9/2020 16:35

Whizzer and Thornback, some good points raised. In response:

Funding - this can be secured only after sufficient details of a commercial contract are available for consideration. So it is unlikely BDC or anyone will provide funding until they see, and can model, those details. The tantalisingly close comment by CC simply demonstrates his naivety as a CFO of a listed company on 3 exchanges.

BPC - they are insolvent and probably being managed by Govt /Ministry. Yes, Moagi instructed BPC to negotiate an interim 2mw PPA with Tlou and no doubt they have. But final signing I suspect is held up in Ministry, not BPC or Tlou.

IPP - big contradiction of purposes here. IPPs are private sector Operators and they want and need flexibility and surety of contract from end market side. End market here is BPC, and BPC are in no position to negotiate and contract with IPPs on any power supply contract. Hence IPPs will seek for confirmation they can sell through the BPC transmission line /grid, but given how badly mismanaged BPC and the country has been governed for however many years, there is no chance Govt/ Ministry will allow IPPs such access.

IRP 2020 - which brings us to some clarity on current Govt /Ministry thinking. The IRP is setting out power supply to the country over next 25 years and how they see/hope the country becomes self-sufficient. My post above mentions timelines for CBM and solar - both 4 or 5 years away. Clearly Bots Govt are not in any great hurry here; clearly they are going to strictly manage the power supply side, and sadly that reads badly for those in private sector/ IPP as they see a route to market that sadly is going to take a Long time to fulfil.

There is nothing new in my post above; rather some of us saw it way sooner than others.

The prize in Bots is clear and obvious, but Tlou has to stay involved another 2-3 years probably hashing and rehashing the same old, same old, compelling opportunity until such times as Ministry/ BPC ie Govt give them a decent sized commercial project to deliver. Then they can talk about proper funding, not micky mouse stuff on interim 2mw (I wonder what price they sell at).

If Tony wants to fulfil Tlou potential, he will need enormous patience and even deeper pockets. Or another way - how Long does he continue putting good money in here ....

Tlou buyout - do you really think anyone in the energy business is that stupid.

[donkey40] 11/9/2020 10:27

Sometimes, when something is said often enough, it becomes the ‘gospel’.

Can someone show me please where it said that the delay on finalising the interim PPA is due to people being able to travel to sign documentation - thanks.

I posted before - I doubt this is the case since documents can be sent soft copy for wet signature and couriered to other party to execute. Hence why I do not believe this is a reason for the delay - but I would be happy to be proved wrong.

Another week has come and gone. No obvious progress on funding, an increasing level of local noise about political in-fighting and witch hunts over past decisions and errant spending. Sadly (as I said before as well), this is shaping up to be, yet again, time to shut up shop for the year and come back in February after Govt and civil servants return from their ‘well-earned’ Xmas and extended New Year break. It has been a stressful year for the poor dears.

[donkey40] 09/9/2020 16:27

Extracts from H1 NDP 11 report card:

For the first half of the National Development Plan (NDP) 11, the Ministry of Investment Trade and Industry (MITI) has added P15 billion into the economy. This was revealed by Minister Peggy Serame in Parliament when delivering the Ministry’s NDP11 midterm review budget estimates on Monday.

She said Botswana Development Corporation(BDC), the country‘s wholly government owned investment outfit has during the first half of NDP 11 invested P913 million into new and existing businesses across various economic sectors in Botswana , in turn creating 1200 new jobs.

For the remaining part of NDP 11 Minister Serame revealed that the ministry through Citizen Entrepreneurship development Agency (CEDA) will invest P450 million on 856 citizen companies creating 2400 jobs. She said this will be enabled by the new CEDA revised guidelines as well as the new citizen economic empowerment law expected to be approved by parliament during the current financial year.

In the current financial year spilling over to the next, Botswana Development Corporation will invest P800 million into projects that will retain jobs and promote economic diversification. “In the next 12 months BDC will invest P800 million into projects such as large scale equipment manufacturing, automotive components manufacturing and food processing,” the Minister revealed.

She said these investments will be aimed at producing equipments and materials for development projects in key sectors such as water and energy. In addition Minister Serame told parliament that the state owned Investment Company will during the remaining part of NDP 11, mobilize a total of P3 billion for domestic investment projects across different economic sectors and industries to accelerate economic diversification and creation of much needed jobs.

[donkey40] 09/9/2020 15:30

Aye - but my followers still look forward to reading what I have to say about the truth re Botswana, CBM and Tlou. Including you ....

And feel free to let me know your thoughts and opinions about Tlou, it’s progress and chances of success. Assuming of course you can think for yourself ....

[uncle andy] 09/9/2020 10:36

11 consecutive posts from Donk without reply,,, a new record I believe.