Tlou Energy Share Discussion Threads

[donkey40] 07/9/2020 20:30

Snapshot into Botswana problems:



So much for the much lauded good scores/ high rankings for efforts in corruption, ease of doing business, blah blah blah. The Govt was previously controlled by SIK and henchmen, such that the civil service stagnated and ended up demotivated and ineffective. No one dared speak up or out at the time. And now business and economy pay the price; exaggerated by dwindling Reserves, costs of bad deals (ie why does the country continue to pay a high price for imported electricity?), over-due dependence on imports from SA, and worsening political situation.....

At least we are starting to see sensible signs of Govt under Masisi planning for the longer term, contracts to be awarded on merit, a major audit of all Govt Ministries by Auditor General with results published (thereby shining a light on the scale and depth of problems), political players on the chess board being identified where true loyalties lie, ..... and basically a massive Change Management program is ahead for the country and Govt. This takes years at the best of times; in Africa .... who knows how much longer it will take (if done correctly).

Going concern audit qualification for Tlou is a meaty issue in the next audit report. How much longer will TG and key shareholders continue to chuck good money after bad....

[donkey40] 05/9/2020 05:07

“Sauce for the goose is also sauce for the gander. Plenty of Bransons out there who'd have failed had they been in TG's chair! Imho!“

Yup he has definitely lost it.

[donkey40] 04/9/2020 21:47

And yet another example that the Govt and Ministries in Bots are still not ready to let the shackles off and allow the private sector to promote growth and employment in-country.

Why? Because when all you read is what the Govt and Ministries are planning to do, you just know it will take 1-2 years before anything substantial happens. And even that, since it will be a transformational change of mindset that then needs to be backed up clear intent, is by no means certain.

And if they are spending all this time and effort preparing for major investment programs, then in my mind, the Tlou model of starting small and scaling is questionable. Then again, it could well be everyone has to wait years and years for Govt to sort their sh1t out, give a green light or two, put in place an enabling framework (ie amend the current legislation), and even then all that Govt will allow is small scale, non-status quo threatening developments.... so they can control who does what, when, and for how much return.

In short, Tlou as a public listed company on 3 stock exchanges really has a problem - the costs to maintain listings v a commercial opportunity in one country that the Authorities are still trying to figure out how to progress (so they retain a fair degree of control)...

So - given next to nothing is happening for the foreseeable future - how do they manage the cost base?! You need in-country staff, but LL is not contributing. Then you have Tony and Colm and Solomon - lets see if Tony is prepared to keep the young kids for the Long ride. Then again, if they had any quality themselves, they would be long gone and working elsewhere....

Tlou - the end of the beginning OR the beginning of the end ?!

[donkey40] 04/9/2020 03:05

losing hope are you Brad..... Prepared to admit I have been pretty much right all along here are you? Prepared to admit I started calling Tony and team out way back in 2017?

Come on Brad .... this is a poor show. You starting to meekly question Tony and Moagi after you were so assured they were the best rain-makers ever....

How can it have all gone so wrong? Is it just a Covid reaction? But of course none of this is Tony’s fault .... right....

Brad - grass in Botswana is a very scarce commodity.

And your boys don’t need worry about the options - they will expire worthless !! CBM in Botswana isn’t yet on the starting line, so a seriously long road ahead still ....

[donkey40] 03/9/2020 18:08

Great real Whizzer - so come on, sack the Board. Get rid of the lot of them. Then what??

Who are they going to get with sufficient experience of Botswana to rescue the dream/ vision/ plan? What are they going to pay them with, other than the first 3-6 months?

Stop being an ‘armchair investor’ and whingeing and whine when you don’t get what you want! Tlou are in good company of examples when the vision is proving a lot more difficult to achieve than the listing prospectus and glossy PowerPoint presentations sell the dream.

My beef with the Board here is they have constantly over-amped their progress along the way, and often implying things when they had no right to be doing so.

And here we are.... A silly olde Donkey that was bang on the money... Hee Haa.

Now either sell and move on or suck it up buttercup!

[donkey40] 03/9/2020 17:51

Whizzer - you really are a bit tedious with your endless ‘sack the board’ rant. After they are sacked, what do you think will happen next ? Who do you hire to replace them? What Botswana and CBM experience will they have? What suitably qualified board personnel would, in their right mind, sign up to try and deliver Tlou?

Get real man, instead of being a cry baby. We invested; it isn’t working; or if it is to ever work, then be prepared for an incredibly long wait and significant diction from here.

Not exactly the great dream and vision presented as the compelling investment in 3 listing prospectus documents, eh Tony !!

[donkey40] 02/9/2020 19:46

Has the penny dropped with any of the Looneys that TG was BSing everyone for years with his ‘connect to the grid and sell into SAPP’ mantra...?!

Yet another example of disingenuity in how the opportunity, as well as company progress, was being reported in announcements and interviews. Why do I say this? Simple - BPC were essentially saying IPPs cannot sell electricity via their grid to external 3rd parties (ie into SAPP).

So either TG, GG and team are incompetent or else they knowingly were stretching the reality of barriers facing the company.

So much of the previous company announced BS is starting to unravel now - as in why all the supposed other PPAs failed to materialise; why the company is solely focussed on selling only to BPC; why funding is really a major problem (the lenders don’t like the market risk side since this is BPC); ....... heavens what an unbelievable and total mess.

Come clean Tony, and soon !!

[donkey40] 02/9/2020 01:13

Take it from me, if this ever saw the light of day, then CBM in Botswana or Zimbabwe will never ever never get going in that part of the world.

It is both scary and ridiculous how many energy projects, both private sector and public sector, are starting to get touted in southern africa these days as the saviour of the energy crisis down there.

And the reality that Tony G ambition is to not commit capital and basically ‘go for it’ is increasingly going to push TOU to the back of the queue.

Which actually isn’t that surprising given they been talking a good game about ‘the compelling investment opportunity’ for well over 10 years now....

Sorry Tony - you let your ego run ahead of you on this one mr olde China !!

[ginko3] 31/8/2020 17:41

damn lies and statistics ; do you REALLY believe we are getting the truth from Botswana about Covid; whos the gullible one now CL.

[donkey40] 31/8/2020 05:32

Spot the child.

[cherrylady] 31/8/2020 01:02

Given the statistics for Covid infections and deaths - I'd say he did well to pick Botswana, moron!

[ginko3] 26/8/2020 08:26

There is NO way this can be described as the implementation stage they are still DESIGNING. Trying to pull the wool over our eyes again, they must think we are all stupid!

Implementation stage

Mott MacDonald are now working on the implementation stage of the proposed 66kV transmission line which includes:

-- Detailed design of the 66kV Line, Serowe Extension substation and Power Plant intake substation; and

-- Tender document specification including preparation of Pre-qualification (PQ) documents with the objective of Tlou selecting a short-list of pre-qualified bidders who will be invited to bid for construction.

[donkey40] 24/8/2020 18:03

Finally, something relevant to post about the disaster that is Tlou.



Auditor General claiming the Governor of BoB continues to fail to account for missing “large amounts” from the Govt’s main account with BoB. Report from AG last week says the ‘controversial government account with The Central bank remains open to doubt because transactions involving large amounts cannot be accounted for.”

AG says despite assurances by Governor Moses Pelarlo to the 2016/17 sitting of the Public Accounts Committee that he would have reconciled the accounts by October 2018, as at March 2019 the bank reconciliation statement still included unidentified items going back to 2005 (yes 2005) involving large amounts.

Now Guess who was the Governor of BoB from 1999 until 2016 ? Yup, our NED Linah Mohohlo.

So she is tainted by this unfolding scandal within Bots for sure. She was the ‘talk of the town‘ for a couple of reasons a few years back; one being her going away present from the most recent former President - flashy car.

I took a quick look at her remuneration from Tlou - only A$24k in each if 2018 and 2019, with some performance rights in 2019. At least she hasn’t cost shareholders much cash - she was supposed to be the mover and shaker in Govt corridors.

Come on Linah, we are all rooting for you to. Make a difference for us patient shareholders please ..... !!!

[donkey40] 23/8/2020 18:52

Brad - I will say it again - you are well out of your depth in following this bag of bones. Amusing to see you seeking comfort and reassurance from the looneys on Looney SE board. Best you run with that herd of sheep mate.

[cherrylady] 23/8/2020 16:53

Blimey Donk, at one time you even questioned the quality of the gas despite it being flared at the time. I don't think you are in a position to doubt Eric's motives because there many reasons why you thought this project would fail, civil war brewing being the most extreme,maybe. At the other extreme Sekaname were creeping up on the rails and who knew how much progress they were making! You have done a u-turn on Sekaname it seems.

[donkey40] 23/8/2020 16:47

Well done Mickey Mouse. You are starting to see the bigger picture - and it involves good and great things with Namibia. The political situation with SA is increasingly problematic and no easy, short term answers.

Enter Namibia and the Trans Kalahari Corridor and now full feasibility study in a huge scale solar Joint-development. Only problem for Tlou and Sekaname and CBM is how many more years before this all gets the necessary traction. In all probability, we should see the fleshed out plans sometime in 2022, meaning continued misery for Tony and team and shareholders.

[donkey40] 23/8/2020 09:12

How do they prove there is adequate gas? Govt gives them a contract to supply power to BPC - that was the purpose of the 100mw gas to power tender. That’s how. You know, the one Govt issued in early 2017 and ever since has been dragging things out. The 100mw power generation is to be provided at Tlou (and Sekaname) own cost - so why the blazes are Govt continuing to stall??

That is why Molale comments make no sense. But you are too stubborn and stupid to realise such a simple thing.

[cherrylady] 23/8/2020 07:54

Eric wanted them (Sekaname and Tlou) to prove there is adequate gas ..... he surely meant flows not resources .... and in Sekaname's case 2012 to 2019 without so much as one flare was reasonable! That did not help Tlou's cause despite them having two sites flaring and one powering a generator (saving 50k barrels of diesel p.a. for site electricity!)

I still think TLOU might not be too keen to take funding until they are able to use it to advance power production. The sooner we take funds the sooner we have repayments commencing 2 years later. If we are not in production by then, where do the repayments come from?
Covid risks us not being in production in 2 years time .....

Ideally the signed agreement when it comes will defer the actual cash and repayment schedule until we can make good use of it. That probably needs face to face talks, Mr Moagi looks more than capable of seeing it makes sense to both parties UNLESS he wants us to default on payments so he can do a Oxus Gold v. Uzbekistan move and take over our assets - perish the thought! TG is no fool and he will be safe-guarding Tlou against that sort of thing I hope - it makes those meetings before signing crucial. And they cannot happen until Covid rules allow Aussies into Botswana. When? That is why the share price is low?