Tlou Energy Share Discussion Threads

[supercity] 06/1/2021 20:22

Half a million buy near the bell reported late - could be interesting tomorrow

[donkey40] 31/12/2020 14:01

Could be my farewell post as I don’t plan to pay upcoming subscription renewal. Pointless as Tlou isn’t going anywhere fast for 2021 - lots of negotiations to get a contract. Financiers won’t lend until there is a meaningful PPA concluded, so great this starts in January. I wonder will it conclude by June ...
I see I can again read the LSE posts; wish I hadn’t bothered. Whizzer still whingeing and wants to sack the Board (pointless) and Brad still defending St Tony to the hilt (mindless). It was a pleasure to read post by Mopanetree (I wonder how many appreciate the name); sadly he is in minority of posters with knowledge.
In summary - Tlou’s 2 lateral wells are probably not cost effective, they are talking about drilling more wells and in different seams; has everyone forgot all the pre-drilling tosh talked by Tony about seismic identifying best places to drill, how previous shareholders cash was well spent identifying right areas to drill, imminent funding from BDC (they must have walked away by now), cash will run out soon enough and then what, ...

HNY - shame Tlou is unlikely to be making it a profitable one.

[donkey40] 21/12/2020 17:15

News: 3.6 magnitude earthquake rattles Gaborone. The Botswana Geoscience Institute has said a magnitute 3.6 earthquake within the Gaborone region occured at 12:44 at 9 km below surface. ‘The seismic event is of tectonic origin associated with continental drifting’ said, Koketso Botsepe Applied Geoscience Manager.

Oh well, at least this time they cannot blame Tlou or Sekaname drilling as the cause, as was the case back in 2017.

[donkey40] 18/12/2020 12:51

Yup, heard pretty much all of it before. Still trying to kid us mgmt are doing their best to get a good deal for shareholders. Any deal would be good for shareholders, since there has been no deals yet.
Try as I might, I cannot get my head past multi-million funding for 2MW power generation notwithstanding the blue sky of rapid increase to 10MW and beyond. Are they buying new or old equipment I wonder.
Talking about more Wells needed to dewater the reservoir - saying should lead to greater gas flows. And targeting a new prospective coal seam - which says what about the existing seam (surely must imply it hasn’t been as good as they would have liked).
Conclusion - long way to go, all the previous uncertainties, finance won’t be secured until there is an agreed PPA (funders are not that stupid), aspirational timelines as usual. But that was our Xmas sign off message so Merry Xmas everyone

[cherrylady] 18/12/2020 10:30

How long has the edit feature been lost?




Oh, it must have timed out! Edit is still there.

[nugacity] 18/12/2020 00:39

hxxps://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02324060-2A1271063?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

[donkey40] 13/12/2020 19:01

Above appears in weekend papers in Bots. The next part below is the important part of the article:

AfDB president, Akinwumi Adesina did not mince words when he said, “Coal is the past, renewable energy is the future. For us at AfDB, we are getting out of coal.”
The eventual sidelining of coal is one reason a project to add 330MW to the current 660MW Morupule generates stalled as export credit agencies and banks shunned it. Govt seemed diffident with regard to the project, as evidenced by its outright refusal to underwrite a $800m guarantee to protect the developers from a future default on Power Purchase Agreements.

There we have it - CBM will never develop in Bots if Govt don’t get behind the industry by supporting the payments to IPPs via the PPAs. Plain and simple ! If Govt isn’t prepared to step up and show commitment; banks and financiers will simply not get involved.

[donkey40] 13/12/2020 18:52

BPC woes are compounded by the fact that Morupule B plant ... is staggeringly expensive both to run and revitalise. Completed at a cost of $1 billion, it continues to be plagued by technical problems, as a result of which it hardly operates at full capacity. With it’s never-ending glitches, the heavily Govt-bankrolled SOE has no option but to resort to outrageously expensive diesel generators and pricey imports from SA to meet the energy shortfall.
Since it is a foregone conclusion that BPC is central to keeping the economy chugging, allowing it to fold is inconceivable. A means, or several of them, just have to be found to put it on a viable keel. This is particularly pertinent considering that the days of coal-powered electricity are numbered anywhere in the world. A growing number of developers, investors, and banks are now steering clear of coal-derived power in favour of clean, fossil-free energy technologies and they include over 100 globally significant banks, one of which is the African Development Bank.

[donkey40] 04/12/2020 20:31

Hi hum. Nothing of significance past few weeks, so looks like Xmas holidays have begun early. Which means next noise in Feb and action in April. Zzzzzz time.

[donkey40] 01/12/2020 22:38

Latest on the superlative Minister Eric Molale. Brad, i remember you like to hang on his every word..... Extract from Botswana Gazette:

Councillors have adopted a resolution calling for Minister of LGRD Eric Molale to resign. Significanly, in an unusual development, councillors of the ruling party BDP did not oppose the notion, hence its successful passing. Councillor Keithoilwe said their gripe with Minister Molale is that he does not consult and always does the opposite of what has been agreed at the ministry. Molale has to understand that his ministry is responsible for the lives of ordinary Botswana and he therefore needs to take decisions that will not negatively affect them. He should be replaced because he is not right for this ministry.

It is not the first time that Molale is facing a call to resign. The MP for Francistown West, Ignatius Moswaane, made a similar call a few months ago saying Molale had failed the nation. In a letter to President Masisi, Moswaane too cited unfulfilled promises.

Basically Molale is a Khama clone. And that is not a good thing for Botswana !!

[donkey40] 30/11/2020 06:32

Above article demonstrates the concern lenders may have when asked to finance Tlou’s PPA with BPC.
Yes the easy answer is ‘But Govt won’t let BPC fail’. But lenders will need Govt to officially commit to guaranteeing that BPC will pay its customers (on time preferably) and that is likely to be something very difficult to secure in credible and acceptable form.

[donkey40] 30/11/2020 06:27

Botswana’s parastatals which have the responsibility to ensure that crucial services are provided to enable the critical functioning of the economy, are failing and their future is uncertain in the face of dwindling government revenues – it has emerged this week.

The Botswana Accountancy Oversight Authority (BAOA) is anticipating challenges as government, saddled with declining revenues tries to keep loss-making parastatals afloat through bail-outs against the tide of weak corporate governance practices and ineffective control mechanisms.

According to the BAOA report tabled before the Committee on Statutory Bodies and State Enterprises, the Botswana Power Corporation (BPC) needs “significant” government bail out to continue operating. The BAOA report reveals that the BPC crisis is symptomatic of broad corporate governance failures within Botswana’s state-owned enterprises.

BPC performed badly in both corporate governance and financial reporting monitoring during BAOA’s last review in 2019, the report shows.

“The concerns were the recoverability of its debtors, low liquidity, high gearing and significant accumulated losses. The seemingly profitable position for the two years is a result of Government grant paid to partially offset the operating losses under the consumer tariff subsidy program. The gearing remains high,” the report says. It notes that “The question is whether under declining revenues of Government, it will continue with its consumer tariff subsidy. Significant financial support is therefore required for the corporation to continue to operate in the foreseeable future.”

According to the report that was tabled by BAOA Chief Executive Officer Duncan Majinda, while Air Botswana was compliant with the requirements of financial reporting standards, “we were uncomfortable with its significant accumulated losses which stood at P727.8 million as at March 2019. This could have going concern implications if funding by the Government is not maintained.”

[donkey40] 16/11/2020 17:48

AfDB recently issued their Electricity Regulatory Index report for Africa 2020 where 36 countries were measured and compared. Botswana is ranked number 29 and is a long way behind the average mean score. Whilst this indicates the potential for power generation improvement in Bots, it also demonstrates the ground Govt has to make up to ensure a sound regulatory framework is embedded which major funders would require before committing to large capex programmes.
No change to - a long journey ahead for aspiring IPPs assuming Govt does open up the sector to the private sector (by no means assured as yet).

[donkey40] 15/11/2020 12:59

M/M - is part of the company’s social media campaign. Expect it to intensify if they get go-ahead on the interim 2MW PPA or the 10MW preferred bidder award.

For Tlou, this far solar is just noise. They need funding to build the transmission line from Lesedi to Serowe. They will only get funding if the get a PPA for gas as power feedstock. Solar can then be used to supplement transmission line capacity.

What won’t happen is solar on its own at Lesedi. Why? Because there is pretty much an entire country available to locate solar farms, so why would a financier support Tlou for 100km line first up.

There has been lots of noise from the Minister recently. Why? Partly his contribution into the President’s recent SONA (where 10MW CBM was mentioned, again). The market is waiting for details of the finalised IRP, since if that is only for 10MW CBM power generation by 2025, then an investment at any price is pretty much pointless since we will all be dead by the time CBM lights up any meaningful part of Bots.

Why is the country bucking the trend by opening up? Because nobody that isn’t from there wants to go there .... Brad you really do need to replace the lenses in your rose tinted specs.

[cherrylady] 15/11/2020 09:23

Not so much about which computer , the Imac is a desk top incidentally , but an explanation of the ADVFN account I use.

Nugacity is my original, but when I was writing my search engine it was interrupted by the internal login process! I therefore created Cherrylady for live work and used that with no interruption from my search engine which was written for Nugacity.

I intended to return to Nugacity but accidentally used Cherrylady on my PC!
Subject closed from my side.

Did you see MM's theory that the Pension fund might be buying on the Botswana exchange? He thinks that is why the share price is buoyant.
I can't find much information on it but expected to find it was them taking up their placements , as did CC and HS (and MM mislead some of us into thinking it was a big deal).

I think I'll drop dead in surprise if he ever posts something that is neutral or negative.

Personally, I think the rise is due to the lack of opportunities elsewhere.
Entertainment industry, travel , retail and wholesale, building trade etc etc etc are all in danger of bankruptcy due to lockdown.
And there is TLOU , everyone in Botswana united behind the need for more reliable economic electricity including Govt and financial institutions. As you say a bit of a gamble but less of a gamble than thousands of others, and the share price is incredibly cheap. Losing 4p versus an unlimited gain is not bad business unless failure is certain!

It is so far from certain with the options we have, and I won't mention TG , to keep you happy! Solar, existing power stations with dual fuel capacity, our main to supply the grid via Serowe - Lesedi, Mamba and Boomslang - and I won't quote TG's historical successes.

With Botswana seemingly bucking the world's trend towards lockdown ...... I think that is the reason for the upturn!

[donkey40] 14/11/2020 13:48

Great to see you posting full throttle again Brad. That must mean Tlou shareholders have clawed back some of their multi- year losses.

And letting us all know which hand- held you are using; now just how interesting is that

[cherrylady] 14/11/2020 09:20

OOps, this was from laptop on my lap in bed .... the Mac is too heavy to do that.
Hence cherrylady, I ony have nugacity on the Mac.

[donkey40] 14/11/2020 00:33

Wait for it to follow through Brad - been a lot of false starts in past 3 years in case you didn’t notice.

PS had you listened, your average entry cost might be a lot lower than it is ....

[nugacity] 12/11/2020 08:05

This delusional or stupid person looks at your post and challenges Donk to ignore TLOU for 3 to 5 years and to then look at his investment.

i.e. put your money where your mouth is! That is what I have for years and it is not looking too bad at the moment. Allowing foreigners into the country or Botswanans to visit Brisbane has made talks on funding much easier imho.

Agreeing the basis for financing over the next few decadesw needs to be perfect - and that describes TG to a T.

My first post here from my Mac - hence revertion to Nugacity from Cherrylady, bless her.

[donkey40] 08/11/2020 12:28

With a bit of luck Brad will stop interjecting former Minister of Energy Eric Molale in his Tlou ramblings. He was irrelevant then, just as he is rapidly doing himself out of his current Cabinet position now. He was/is seen as a lacky of Ex-President Khama but worse that that - he is just lazy and incompetent.