Thg Share Discussion Threads

[mrsimmons] 24/5/2022 23:12

Zb27 how do you think bidders value a business.

Maybe if you’d done a valuation yourself you wouldn’t be slumped in your chair now staring at a screen full of red, preparing for another sleepless night. Have a good evening pal 😊

[zb27] 24/5/2022 23:07

Lol Mr Cashflow statement is back, when we are at the beginning of a bidding war 🤣🤣🤣🤣9315;

[mrsimmons] 24/5/2022 23:03

Griffo just explain to me why 3 quid is a travesty and you’d be gutted to sell for that amount.

Genuinely interested to see what your assumptions are which gets you to a valuation above that. Can you set those out and what sort of annual cash flows you expect this to generate in the next 5 years to justify a 5bn valuation which I think is what you’re hoping for? I assume you have these to hand when you make these statements. Please share as I’m sure a lot of undecided potential investors would be Keen to see it.

[qnq] 24/5/2022 22:48

2.5 bln - 3 bln. (205-246 pence)

[walshr123] 24/5/2022 22:45

Don’t you think it was quite strange not hearing from ledge, Simmons and co today, when the share price went down. Almost like their work is done? Kiss of death I know :D

[boix] 24/5/2022 22:38

London agreed.
It’s just we are starting at a low base.
I assume the 177p is the highest offer received so far?
How many lower offers have we had from other PEs 3 or 4? - these were mentioned on the conference call.
That’s why the market doesn’t believe we will get an offer acceptable to MM?
I think the market is wrong.
It will go private under MM and his friends/family.
We have no choice but to accept it and hope Charles Allen has done his job in representing out interests.

[london07] 24/5/2022 22:31

It's completely normal after a big bounce.

If official bid at say 220p, will spike to over 200p, then drift a little.

Other bidders confirmed, could go 230-240p, before drifting a little until further news etc.

If it just went up and up, how easy would that be. Lol

Just look at homeserve takeover. Atleast 4 gap ups, after each gap up drifts and consolidates! Like steps.

We are on the staircase, first small step taken, how many to go???

[boix] 24/5/2022 22:23

Perhaps but it’s a market like any other and the share price is currently 136.8p.
There is some day to day trading price manipulation but that’s not the reason for the recent share price decline.
I would love a 250p +++ offer but I just can’t see it coming in the foreseeable future.
I would be delighted to be proved wrong but I would be happy if the market was wrong and we get a 200-250p++ offer which might be acceptable to MM.
IMHO

[london07] 24/5/2022 22:19

If completely selling out to PE (no MBO), how in any sane world Matt would think it was undervalued 12 months ago at 600-700p (Hence separation plan to add value), and then sell for 250p, never ever going to happen in a million years!

Papers and derampers are dreaming.This 250p price point has been bandied around from nowhere, like if you say it enough times, people will start believing it. Thats 1.25x revenue absolute comical!

[griffo221] 24/5/2022 22:12

220 would be a travesty in my eyes. But thats just me

[boix] 24/5/2022 22:10

The most likely scenario in my view is that he get’s a ‘friend’ to offer 220-250p and it goes private with his mates/family and with MM still in control.
The only person who might get us a better deal is Charles Allen?
PE won’t match 220-250p
The market doesn’t believe there that will be any offers above 177p the price he has already rejected - hence 136.8p tonight.
I believe the market is wrong.
It’s not manipulation it’s just a market like any other.
Thankfully it won’t be the first time the market got it wrong.
IMHO

[griffo221] 24/5/2022 22:09

And we as PI are likely to do better if Matt takes it private himself id like to think. I was told separation was happening or had happened by staff, and companies house seemed to show this. I was also told that PE was highly likely. Confused to say the least if not a little tired haha

[london07] 24/5/2022 22:01

Griffo - initially bought in for the separation value, things have quickly changed.

Completely resigned yo the fact its going private! Not sure which way. I have listened to alot of Matt's interviews, just dont see him selling to a PE, unless a stupidly insane bid came through!

[griffo221] 24/5/2022 21:45

London, out of interest when and where do you see this going ....

[davidro77] 24/5/2022 21:43

Show me yours and I'll show you mine, LOL. I'm a reasonable guy! I think you've gone a bit mad, suggest we just calm this down and focus on debating thg not mud slinging. I've now put it out there where I stand on this share. Ok?

[london07] 24/5/2022 21:43

Totally agree, full house keeping is going on. Those caught short are allowed to escape. Only need to look at the huge after hour trades for weeks now, and price controlled by automatic algo sells!

All 3 'reported' shorts over 0.5% have as per the FCA list reduced in the last 2 days, with Blackrock completely closing there position.

Games and manipulation from day one. Market is rigged and corrupt, if there is no 'real' market why stay listed! How can 70%+ of all trades everyday be algo trades, thats exactly what is happening here (download LSE daily trades, and all algo trades are marked P ALGO). Todays was precisely 71.2%, yesterday 81.9% of all trades were executed by algorithms.

Any wonder Matt wants this off the market!!!

[boix] 24/5/2022 21:41

Griffo
Yes I don’t believe all the journalists made up the 250p figure.
His (MM) friends will certainly know the number.
But the market doesn’t believe anyone will offer it?
Hence 136.8p.

[davidro77] 24/5/2022 21:35

To be totally transparent, after listening to all this debate past few weeks, including the rational posts by toansy when he's not venting off, my view is that it's worth holding a position here. I may even add if it hangs around 130-140 as it's obvious that upside risk is 50 to 100 percent and downside risk is probably initially 25% if no bid. so that's decent odds for a trade which at this stage of the game is all this is, as seems it will go private at some point. Doesn't mean I'm not dubious about the cosy bid interest so far, and tbh this whole episode from float to bid seems shady as h@ll. I even found out recently I (unfortunately) hold more shares indirectly through our friends at Jupiter who have stuck this out through to the bitter end for some crazy reason lol. GLA. Here's to a bid at 2 plus and hopefully more.

[griffo221] 24/5/2022 21:35

I agree, I am surprised at the lower share price I did think we would have tickled 150 for the majority of the next couple of weeks. Would your feeling be 2.5 at the end of this ?

[boix] 24/5/2022 21:26

Griffo
I don’t believe that but happy to be proved wrong.
Let’s hope we get 300p+ but if anyone other than us believed that tonights closing price would have been considerably higher than 136.8p?

[davidro77] 24/5/2022 21:26

Also talking of twitter someone with the handle @robbie _toan has also made a few interesting posts to the city spy. A popular chap! Including on 22 May: "put the house on it. I have." and advising another poster that 'I am all in on this baby....just wanna save the house'. Interesting, could this be why he is so angry? I have no idea. But people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. Anyway that's the last I'm going to comment on it, I know what ppl mean when they say BBs are toxic and last thing I want to do is get into a pointless nasty argument with someone, particularly who accuses me of things i have not done. I'm hoping for a takeover as I have shares and there's precious little out there right now that isn't going down the sh@tter with the general market. GLA holders onwards and upwards. Z

[davidro77] 24/5/2022 21:20

Wow toansy seems to have gone 'full tonto'. To set the record straight, I did not make a comment about the bears in control, so nothing to delete, also have never gloated EVER, nothing to do with newbie, and quite frankly don't care how many shares he has. Jealous? We'll just a tad, I mean who wouldn't want a million riding on thg? Just thought it was interesting initially that an experienced senior guy was sharing his insight here as apparently had run many big companies and tried to sell them to Thg. So seemed worth reaching out to apologise and clear the air. For some reason that's made him even madder, I literally have no idea why. Kind of flattered that I can make such a large investor lose their rag on here with a few innocent posts lol.