Thg Share Discussion Threads

[bldm] 10/3/2022 12:02

They are angry and frustrated at themselves. They just project it on me. They don't want to blame themselves for losing all this money because it's painful. It is easier on their emotions to blame someone else. It didn't help that I called this one right because it makes it even worse - they feel my gain is at their loss. Makes me even more evil. XD

[cupra kid] 10/3/2022 11:54

Why don't you all just ignore him? It really is that simple.

[sentimentrule] 10/3/2022 11:08

And get a life too

[sentimentrule] 10/3/2022 11:08

Get help BLDM you are not well

[billionarebob] 10/3/2022 10:47

FFS bldm please seek help!!!

[sentimentrule] 10/3/2022 10:42

Bore off you liar
You really are a pathetic twit….you spend your life arguing and being sanctimonious on this forum
You sad tragic twerp. I even remember when I first managed to trick you to think I supported your views. You donut

[bldm] 10/3/2022 10:35

Actually, my next buy will probably be under 70p - high 60s.

[sentimentrule] 10/3/2022 10:29

Why are you such a liar BLDM
You promised you had left
LIARLIARLIAR

[bldm] 10/3/2022 10:24

Wow Bob, you seem like a really bitter and grumpy man. Will buy this if it falls under 80 again.

[billionarebob] 10/3/2022 10:15

bldm you didn't own any THG shares to sell, you don't have a British/Ukrainian wife, you didn't buy THG shares back in December, you sir are living in a fantasy world and you are a compulsive liar. I can read you like a book, I told you that you would be back ROFL and it gives me great pleasure to call you out every time you post. You have zero credibility and even if you did buy shares on Monday (which you didn't) you were here on Sunday telling investors to dump their THG shares. So you are either a compulsive liar or a manipulating rat. Please fart into your paper bag to remind yourself of the smell we get everytime you post.

[bldm] 10/3/2022 10:01

Sold today. Happy with 23% gain over 2 days. Like I said, not looking to hold long term. Whey prices are predicted to come down a bit (10%) short term and come down significantly after 12 months (50% drop). So their whey cost problems will be resolved in 2023 IF the current "predictions" hold. I personally think whey dropping is unlikely but let's take it at face value. Besides, whey is just one of the inputs and they can raise their prices a bit.

In the short term margins are gone but I think the market already priced this in. In the long run, they'll increase prices, commodities might come down a bit (inflation adjusted) and margin will recover. But plenty of challenges with this one to lock in significant sums here. A few whey experts here it seems - you should trade whey derivatives rather than invest in a company which has whey exposure.

[tomzimerman] 10/3/2022 09:30

I'm not 100% sure on the whey prices etc to comment bob, I'll have to have a read up being honest. My point was a generic one not specific to just thg but more broadly across my positions in general.

[billionarebob] 10/3/2022 09:26

I agree that the Ukrainian conflict is causing major uncertainty globally.

But my point is, it would have been ten times worse for THG if Russia was one of the main whey exporters and not a main importer. Look what has happened to oil prices now Russia one of the main exporters has been cut off.

If there is a surplus of whey due to the Russian trade block then surely whey prices will come down?

Or am I missing something?

[tomzimerman] 10/3/2022 09:13

Decent discussion here for a change and taken my rise tinted glasses off for a minute and I quite agree. Lots of uncertainty for sure at the minute with what's going on and people should realise this. Personally this issue has made me re balance entire portfolio due to the additional risk on supplies/goods/costs/fuel etc etc increasing around the world. Thg has been battered down more than most imo but I have the ability to add more here should we see margins eroded and the price drop.

[boix] 10/3/2022 08:51

The prices of Whey have gone up enormously and won’t come down until the Russian situation improves.
Their margins must be getting crushed.
Ukraine were also a large exporter.
Fingers crossed but it doesn’t look good to me.
Best of luck

[billionarebob] 10/3/2022 08:20

Boohoo up 12% let's hope THG follows upward trend

[billionarebob] 10/3/2022 08:03

BOIX Russia not in the top ten for whey exporters see this linkwww.worldatlas.com/articles/top-10-exporters-of-whey-dairy-products.htmlThey down as a major importer

[tomboyb] 10/3/2022 08:03

good start -

[boix] 10/3/2022 07:40

Russia is(was) a major exporter of Whey - You can’t blame THG but it will have an impact on their margins.
On the conf call they said they hadn’t hedged as they believed prices were elevated and that they would fall - Russia happened and they are rocketing!

[billionarebob] 10/3/2022 00:00

They did say that they forward buy whey 6 months to 12 months in advance so we can only assume that they saw this commodity crisis coming and bought at the better prices late last year. Poor judgement if they didn't. They didn't say in the webcast that they had been buying at the higher rates.

For me at these levels the value is in the split and I think this will become apparent when it is explained in the update.

We will just have to wait and see :)

[boix] 09/3/2022 22:24

No they weren’t hedging at the moment as they thought the prices were already high - the said they bought in Europe.
They buy continually- it’s a key ingredient.
Maybe listen to the con call again?
The market is absolutely mercy less on any hint of margin erosion or any slight issue at the moment.
That might explain why they haven’t confirmed results date yet? Waiting for improvement in commodity pricing.
I have held (off and on) since 280p but recently bailed again at 95p - I don’t and won’t short a company.
Jam tomorrow when in most areas the company loses money won’t help.
Looks like the area that was profitable is now considerably less profitable.
Currency might help them a bit as they buy in Europe (€) but……
Best of luck and I will buy again when there is an improvement in the short term outlook.

[billionarebob] 09/3/2022 22:13

I was under the impression that they haven't committed to buying any whey at the inflated prices and instead waiting for them to drop. If they have to commit then they trying to absorb increase thanks to billion pound investment last year. But if they have to increase then they will still be competitive in the marketplace due to them being the biggest player they can command the best prices. Russia will see a ban on whey imports so I am assuming whey prices will start to drop. Plus Ingenuity is flying 100 million with 60% EBITDA so this increase will help the whole group. They do say H1 will be testing and if the market over reacts like when they missed EBITDA forecast by a fraction of a percent, even when IPO revenue targets were smashed at 2.2 billion, then that will be disappointing. Think we will be updated on split, new chair and PE interest and I think this will be enough to counter balance any negative sentiment. Very excited about the rapid growth of Ingenuity and I am convinced softBank won't walk away. They may renegotiate terms but they won't walk away :)

[boix] 09/3/2022 20:38

Bob
I listened to the con call thanks.
But Whey prices are up over 20% since the call.
So I assume margins have eroded substantially since then?
They confirmed on call that are not hedged as they felt prices were already high.
I assume their product retail prices haven’t gone up 20% since Jan22.
Could be a difficult April results day as they give a Q1 2022 update or am I missing something?
I would appreciate some insight.
Thanks

[pre] 09/3/2022 16:38

nice to see this hitting a firm blue target, long may it continue