Thg Share Discussion Threads

[bigt20] 06/3/2022 14:42

Mrsimmons6 Mar '22 - 13:30 - 12262 of 12269

Genuine question. I must admit I still don’t understand what the USP of ingenuity is? Why would say oral b go to ingenuity if they can just list on Amazon. Eventually this hound will become investable but I need to understand ingenuity
Is it anything of value or is it emperors clothes.

---> Good question.

[bigt20] 06/3/2022 14:40

Mrsimmons5 Mar '22 - 17:23 - 12233 of 12268

Years ago I questioned the quality of management (ie. where they up to handling the situation they were facing) of Lucent when they were US$80 and I got the same hard time you are getting with THG. Lucent share price went south.

[bigt20] 06/3/2022 14:34

billionarebob5 Mar '22 - 16:04 - 12228 of 12267

.....

They loaned 150M from Warrington Council but this has been repaid

----> Was it the founders property company that repaid the Council loan?

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 14:20

This was on LSE forum: I think this pretty much sums up how I feel about THG :)

Psychology of investing! Jeff Bezos...

The stock is not the company. And the company is not the stock. And so, as I watched the stock fall from $113 to $6, I was also watching all of our internal business metrics -- number of customers, profit per unit ... every single thing about the business was getting better.

And so, while the stock price was going the wrong way, everything inside the company was going the right way.

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 14:15

bldm says fair value for THG group is 80p per share this is his valuation not mine, I personally think the shares are worth a lot more.

Mrsimmons values THG at 95p per share this is his valuation not mine. He says this is his market valuation but is not the value he would invest in. Seeing as he says he has no interest in investing in THG we have to accept his market valuation as any personal target goes against what he is saying and makes him a liar.

Mr simmons in his 95p valuation includes a 30% reduction on total price based on the fact that he doesn't like a few of the 25 to 30 year olds linkedin profiles.

Can you imagine a PE valution after due diligence. PE says 'This is the figure we deem fair value and we know the group employs 13,0000 but there are few people on linkedin that we don't like and because of this we want a 30% reduction from our offer.'

Sorry but that is so ridiculous it beggers belief.

Debs still hasn't anwered the question about what he/she/it believes to be fair value and instead plays the I have no interest card. I am glad that the 'doom' and 'groom' crowd are getting more elevated as it means we are getting close.

Here is a simple question for bldm, mrsimmons, debs and termanator.

If you could invest in oil tomorrow at $21 dollars per barrel would you invest?

2 years ago I invested in oil at $21, some $10 of the low, oil is now trading at $115 dollars.

At the time when I researched oil there was a lot of talk in the internet forums about the pandemic, how oil was finished, move your money into EV that is were the smart money is.

I new the pandemic would end and that folks would need oil again for the cars, planes and cargo. So I bought in.

2 years later I am really happy with my oil investment and will be cashing in and buying some of the cheap stocks now on offer to bolster my portfolio.

One of the areas I will be looking into is EV as a lot of these stocks are now trading at 80% from their highs and guess what I think that there will be a massive push to EV as the world trys to move away from Putins oil.

THG like all businesses are being tested with inflation, price hikes and Ukraine sentiment. However it is well placed to ride the storm and just like bldm and mrsimmons I see good value at these prices.

I will top up one more time and then tuck my share certificates away to see what happens. But I am confident that I will see a rise in my THG investment similar to the rise I have seen in my Oil investment.

2 years ago the internet forums were telling me not to buy oil and I am glad I didn't listen - buy low, sell high :)

[bldm] 06/3/2022 13:55

On a positive note, the coca cola website sells cola cheaper than a supermarket and cheaper than amazon. I just wonder how much money they make from this particular website. We know the average per website (I believe it jumped from 170,000 to 240,000) but how much from the "big-name" websites.

I believe you should dump this and then monitor it. There will be signs when sentiment turns on this. At the moment, buying this is not investing, it is betting. Hopefully sentiment turns and as to why that will be, I have a guess but there's no guarantee.

[bldm] 06/3/2022 13:42

Mrsimmons, at the moment, it almost looks like THG went to P&G (oral-b) and told them "We'll build you a website. It's good for us. It's good for you. It won't cost you anything and we'll take 10% from the revenue" - or whatever the revenue share percentage is. Oral-b was like "OK" since it's not like they have anything to lose.

I like the idea of THG - it's the opposite of what amazon is. And here is the problem. You are betting that what amazon is doing is wrong. I'm happy with this bet. However, what became a red-flag for me was the management and the team. It was a concern from the beginning but after the last few months it's become a right-out red flag. I'd admit, I should have dug deeper into this "concern" and I didn't!

It's just too much risk because even if the idea turns out to be a good one (and that's a big risk in itself) then you need an excellent team to execute it and make it profitable. There is a direct relationship between the team and the profitability/success of the company. And I simply don't believe the team is the best and so profitability won't be the best and it's risky that a US company with a similar idea simply smokes them. For example, there is a similar company in the US with ticker symbol FIGS.

The lack of experience shows from the way they spent £1 in 1 year to the way they handled the movement in the share price. It is completely different to manage a public company to a private company. It's like driving a sports car at 200 miles/h to a family sedan at 20/30 miles/h. Mistakes cost way more and a crash can be fatal.

[mrsimmons] 06/3/2022 13:37

I just had a look on the oral b online shop. It all looks fairly standard. What value add is ingenuity bringing to this website. Why would I go here and not just pick up from Amazon and bundle up some other purchases into one delivery. I haven’t priced check but if that’s true Bldm that would be another reason to just go to Amazon.

[mrsimmons] 06/3/2022 13:30

Genuine question. I must admit I still don’t understand what the USP of ingenuity is? Why would say oral b go to ingenuity if they can just list on Amazon. Eventually this hound will become investable but I need to understand ingenuity
Is it anything of value or is it emperors clothes.

[bldm] 06/3/2022 13:21

Bob, here is a question for you. I have £10 million in the bank. I have debt of £5 million. I spend £2 million/year to live while working on an "amazing" idea. How much money would you give me for a 1 billionth piece of this amazing idea? Oh and btw, I have some dodgy dealings but let's not talk about this right now.

What I'm saying is not that THG isn't going to be a success but that the price isn't exactly low. I don't have a crystal ball and in 1 year we might look at THG and it might be up and in such case in hindsight it would have been a good investment but it can also have slided to 60p. There is a huge amount of risk here - it might pay off and it might not but what you guys are doing is painting this as a "sure thing", "money in the bag", "£5 pound notes selling for £1" - the last one is almost a quote from when the price was ~ 250.

There are lots of challenges for this group. People are pulling money, because the earlier you sell, the sooner you can reinvest into a winning stock and recover the loses. When I pulled my money from THG, I reinvested in a small british oil company which has since doubled (I already owned shares and know the company well).

[mrsimmons] 06/3/2022 12:33

SANKS I appreciate it’s excruciating the absolute shellacking you’ve taken but please calm down pal. Have a good Sunday. Please also do everyone a favour and stop with the 5.17 nonsense. it makes you no better than the people who say this is worth 10p. It also makes you sound like a cretin so I suggest you pack it in pal.

[debsdowner] 06/3/2022 11:44

bob, you mention cash in the bank but what is net cash (less borrowings) ?

Then what are the intangibles which can amount to any company being worthless!

As for the market cap its obvious at the moment look at the value in the chart its 1 billion.

But then you have to take account of how much cash they are spending each week and reduces cash accordingly.

Anyway I am not an investor here just an observer so it doesnt make much difference to me wherher the share price rises of falls but I dont like to see shareholders lose their money I predicted it and saw it with DENENHAMS well before the event and warned time and time again the company was in trouble.

What HUT has to face now is an economic crisis with reduced consumer spend and the Ukraie crsis reducing economic growth as well with the oil price rising fast and also inflation which could reduce margins.

No one wants to be in retailers at the moment just look at NEXT and MARKS the latter seen its share price collapse the last 3 months.

All retailers will suffer in this economic situation BooHoo is in the same boat seeing its share price collapse.

At one billion pound with no profits expected after tas the company valuation looks too high on a number of metrics.

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 11:29

Nice update on Matalan/Ingenuity - remember Ingenuity currently valued at zero

hxxps://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Ship-from-store-a-pandemic-retail-trend-thats-here-to-stay

Redistributing distribution

Before the pandemic, clothing and homeware retailer Matalan fulfilled online orders from one central distribution centre, but as stores were forced to close and pressure built on its single stockholding for e-commerce, shops became part of the distribution network.

Online orders can now arrive at customers’ homes from one of two distribution centres or 225 stores across the UK, and it is viewed by the business as a more efficient way of operating. Indeed, it is a central part of Matalan’s ongoing digital transformation, according to a recent announcement from the company.

Matalan says the shift to greater warehouse automation and a nationwide fulfil-from-store strategy marks phase one of its transformation and doubled the retailer’s capacity to meet rapid online demand. This move also provides the bedrock on which a new partnership with tech solutions provider THG Ingenuity is being built.

In 2022, phase two of the transformation will involve Matalan migrating its digital channels to THG Ingenuity’s infrastructure, which is expected to result in the introduction of a multitude of online user experience advancements, such as better product availability and the ability to see store stock when shopping online.

Describing the direction of travel, James Brown, Matalan’s chief commercial officer, spoke of an “incredible sense of energy around the business” as it follows a path of digital transformation to prepare for rising consumer demands.

[sr2day] 06/3/2022 09:29

sanks is your sheila as wet.

[sankshiela] 06/3/2022 08:21

I m not a ramper term ite - I just don’t like bully’s like you
Ps twitter gives a lot of info on trolls. Your on twitter aren’t you. Using same avatar…..

[sankshiela] 06/3/2022 02:13

DEBS DEARY- Debs hams and boots are almost exlcusivelt bricks and mortar. Thg is pure Ecom play
Your comapring apples with mangos to try to make a weak short and distort point -
Try harder deary or move on
Ps we can read your history and you pasted this exact email on ABF and Marks and Spencer’s board- try harder deary if you troll

[sankshiela] 06/3/2022 02:10

DEBS you are puzzled cos you re a bit of a thicko and it doesn’t take much to confuse you.
The founder is called Matt Moulding (just so you know deary)
He hasn’t sold any shares so not made anything from this
He donates his salary to charity (do you if you have one)?
He makes rent from properties he now owns as part of a deal during IPO- he donates any profit from this to a foundation for philanthropy
YOU DONT OWN SHARES IN THG. YOU CRITICISE IT ENDLESSLY. MOVE ON DEARY. You will feel better for it

[sankshiela] 06/3/2022 02:07

BLDM- why do you endlessly criticize this company. Your not invested. You admit you ve lost money on this company
MOVE ON. GET HELP. to be honest YOUR SO BORING you re like a broken record on repeat.
Do yourself a favor and find a new hobby other than endlessly posting criticism. ITS NOT HEALTHY. ITS NOT NORMAL. ITS WIERD

[sankshiela] 06/3/2022 02:01

DOWNERDEBS don’t demand stuff like a …..
Show some manners. British people don’t talk about how much wealthy they have it’s crude

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 00:35

Bldm for example sees a fair value of THG at 80p, just 2p of the close on Friday. His market cap valuation of the whole THG group is 1 billion

THG has 530 million in the bank so bldm is actually valuing THG at 470 million for the whole group

debs and mrsimmons what is your market cap valuation?

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 00:26

What I would like to know from debs, bldm and mrsimmons is what do you think the market cap is for THG as of the close of this Friday. Just a single figure no fluff.

My personal take is THG will be split and beauty will be sold on multiples of 2/3 times revenue

They will keep hold of Ingenuity and work with softBank and list nutrition on nasdaq.

I am working on a market cap of 5 billion based on group split.

What is your market cap valuation?