Thg Share Discussion Threads

[billionarebob] 07/3/2022 06:48

Bldm giving advice AGAIN :)On Friday bldm said:bldm - 04 Mar 2022 - 12:19:05 - 12182 of 12279At this point, you need to hold and get out when it jumps.yesterday he said:bldm - 06 Mar 2022 - 13:55:30 - 12265 of 12279I believe you should dump this and then monitor it.Honestly, you couldn't make it up - which bldm is it today :)bldm multiple personalities = zero credibility.Oh and I will save the best till last - he doesn't hold any THG shares and is just here to give advice.ROFL what sort of advice is that - hold your shares, no I mean dump your shares, no I think you are meant to hold them. No, don't dump them. The guy is here to spread 'doom' and 'groom' don't be fooled.

[bldm] 07/3/2022 05:44

Long term investing is not buying at £5 holding to 80p and then hoping to make it back. Same goes if this were amazon.

[sankshiela] 07/3/2022 01:51

Problem is Bob that downtown Debs aren’t a long term investor or even an investor. She’s a paid boiler room troll so her outlook is only until next weeks pay pack

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 21:39

debs the best investors are prepared to wait - Rome wasn't built in a day.
Buy cheap - sell high :)

[debsdowner] 06/3/2022 21:34

bob I dont think many investors are prepared to await a few years never mind 6 months for the company to make £100 million after tax but that is my opinion.

Good luck the market is set for a rocky risde next week.

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 21:22

bldm this was over on LSE and proves a point about the value in splitting the group.

Revolution Beauty had a market cap of £331m at close on Friday, 2022 forecasts are for £197m revenue & ~£10m EBITDA.

Q4 THG Beauty revenue was £406m, at an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~7.55% (2021 midpoint for group, so beauty could better / worse), that would be quarterly EBITDA of £30.6m & annual EBITDA of £122m…

Cult Beauty alone was bought for £275m and as per companies house showed similar profitability metrics to REVB.

So at £1b market cap this has to be near rock bottom? Nevermind nutrition, ingenuity etc.

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 21:05

Anyway bldm I think you are the last person who should be handing out advice, hope you don't mind me copy/pasting it one more time :)

On Friday bldm said:

bldm - 04 Mar 2022 - 12:19:05 - 12182 of 12279
At this point, you need to hold and get out when it jumps.

Today he said:

bldm - 06 Mar 2022 - 13:55:30 - 12265 of 12279
I believe you should dump this and then monitor it.

Honestly, you couldn't make it up - which bldm do you believe? :)

bldm multiple personalities = zero credibility.

Oh and I will save the best till last - he doesn't hold any THG shares and is just here to give advice.

ROFL what sort of advice is that - hold your shares, no I mean dump your shares, no I think you are meant to hold them. No, don't dump them. The guy is nuts, said it many times I think he is on the spectrum :)

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 20:56

bldm THG is going to split up into different groups as there is more value in seperating them than the group as a whole, please keep up :)

As I have said many time Ingenuity is the jewel in the crown and is one of the main reasons I am invested. I can wait a couple of years to reap the rewards. Same as I did with oil $21 dollars 2 years ago $115 dollars today.

Buy cheap sell high :)

[bldm] 06/3/2022 20:46

When the entire market tells you you are wrong, you have to be a narcissist to believe the ridiculously high numbers you are throwing around. I first said 80p fair value quite a few weeks ago. The exact number I came up with was 79p and that was more than 1 month ago. If you believe analysts reports that much, no analyst expects THG to be profitable this year or next year. Earliest time they become profitable is expected to be 2024. The profit estimate I saw was something around 25-30 million on a revenue of ~3.5 billion. In any case, it's obvious analyst reports are not a guide to trade and at best are a very, very rough guide.

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 20:33

debs I cannot give you any more detail than I already have and I don't think there will be a World War so I can safely say I can see 100 million profit in 2 to 3 years.

There is no escaping the 60% EPITDA for Ingenuity you have to agree the profits generated by this littel gem are very impressive

[debsdowner] 06/3/2022 20:19

bob, when is the company going to make at the very least over £100 million after tax to substantiate the market cap?

Oh and dont bother telling me in a few years time I need to know how quickly the company is going to be profitable becasue we face a world war in a matter of weeks or months.

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 20:10

2022 revenue £110M they expecting 100% YOY growth so 500M within 5 years. EPITDA at 60%.
If we go like for like with say shopify similar EPITDA 60% we looking at way more than 4.6 billion valuations for Ingenuity

Shopify's 2022 expected revenue is predicted to be $4.57B

Shopify current market cap is $76 billion down from a high a few months ago of $200 billion then ingenuity value based on similar in 5 years could be revenue $660 million (based on the current rate of $1.32 to the pound) which is 7 times less than Shopify, this gives Ingenuity a potential projected price range of between $10 billion and $28 billion based on current & recent Shopify figures?

I would love to see Ingenuity listed in the USA as they understand tech much better than the UK

Ingenuity is currently priced at zero and has always been the golden ticket and that is why SoftBank wants it?

Mrsimmons can you explain why you are even bothered when you don't have any THG shares and don't intend buying any. Don't you think you just being here is a bit weird

[debsdowner] 06/3/2022 19:49

Mr S

bob has a crystal ball.

[mrsimmons] 06/3/2022 19:44

Bob how can 4.6bn for Thg ingenuity ever be justified. This would mean it needs to throw off 460m of cash each year out to perpetuity starting from now at a 10% discount rate to justify 4.6bn. At the moment it is losing cash.


Can you explain to me how you get to 4.6bn and don’t just say because that’s what an analyst at rbc says

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 18:36

You said fair value for THG was 80p on Friday you muppet and nobody laughed. Jeez keep up
And how many times do I have to tell you I haven't lost any money as I still have my shares.

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 16:28

Mrsimmons, maybe it is an age thing my neighbor is 75 and doesn't understand Amazon, you do not understand Ingenuity and don't like youth.

To put it simply with Ingenuity everything you need for your e-commerce business is under one roof. This saves e-commerce businesses money and is why businesses are buying into it and why management is super confident about 2022.

I wouldn't worry too much as you don't hold any THG shares and you have no intention of buying any so why not leave it to the management and young folk who actually understand the business and know what they are doing.

I know you love your EBITDA and Ingenuity has great margins.

This is what they said just a few weeks ago.

The Position then with Ingenuity Commerce the annual growth rate was 135% we delivered over 15 million revenue in the quarter which was over 30% higher than our previous record quarter.
In terms of the key stats that we would pull out, we increase the number of live websites to 187, which is a 100 up in the year.
The recurring revenue per website increased to £240,000 pounds, the recurring revenue mix was at 72%, now our new revenue run rate has increased to 61 million.
Now those stats reflect how successful J&V growth was with our clients in the quarter.
In addition, although we don't mention anything specifically ourselves, you may have picked out the Matalan press release. Where will be working with them on their digital revolution?
I would put a substantial amount of work into winning substantial clients like that, although none of the revenue on that account will be recognised in this year. That will start to kick in quarter one, along with other substantial wins that we have got.
And I remind everyone in terms of guidance for 2022 of 108 to 112 million, that's predicated on launching 400 and taking a number of client solutions to 400 from the 109 that we have got at the moment.
Which is 85% of those contracts that are already contracted with us. It assumes a recurring revenue per website of £170,000 pounds and a recurring revenue mix of 60% so it doesn't include any of the new business that we currently can win, have won, and expect to win later in the year.
We are super confident on the numbers for 2022 and very proud of the growth that we've delivered in the success of working with our clients in 2021.
-----

Did I mention the market currently values Ingenuity at zero?
Maybe now you have these figures you may want to increase your THG fair value figure of 95p
Then again why bother as you don't hold any shares and have no intention of buying any.

You would actually be better off farting in a paper bag, at least then you would be able to smell your own stench.

[mrsimmons] 06/3/2022 16:22

Interesting thanks. So in effect they need to take market share away from Amazon to get any sort of scale. They are simple cannibalising those customers rather than driving new customers to buy a oral b toothbrush.

To me if it’s not broken why fix it ie Amazon does all this, (has the scale) and does it well. Thg are trying to reinvent the wheel and/or compete. I think there is enough to go round but what happens if Amazon notices they are losing market share and they say oral b sorry guys this isn’t working for us.

As a customer I still don’t see why I would move away from Amazon. Today for example I just bought a dyson hoover and an iPad. Why would I go to dyson and then apple when I know I can get both on a platform with the best in class ease of use experience and see reviews etc

[bldm] 06/3/2022 15:54

@mrsimmons ingenuity is supposed to handle the website hosting, payments, language translation, analytics, influencers on insta, production studios, warehousing and delivery in a single solution. So if you launch a new brand in the UK, you can easily scale to spain (in spanish and accepting payment in EUR and delivery to spanish addresses etc). It is not revolutionary and I suspect any other brand that trades internationally has this. It's very hard for me to judge if they have USP because I think it's a chicken and egg situation. Their USP would be if they had a lot of customers and had warehouses all over the world and their own fleet (a bit like amazon). And to get there it will be very capital intensive - they need to build capacity before it is needed. THG might also become a victim of current affairs - a few years ago this might have flown off with consumer spending being high. But right now, we've got covid and now war.

[mrsimmons] 06/3/2022 15:50

My understanding of ingenuity is that it profiles the user and drives them to the relevant owner brand websites and what they are looking for. Presumably you don’t need to set up new payment/user details each time so if say you are using oral b and then say if you go over to matalan. The system is clever enough to recognise you have used another ingenuity driven site and pulls your details accordingly. If not then I am really struggling with the ingenuity concept. Presumably there is more to it than just pulling over your personal details. Any responses welcome.

[billionarebob] 06/3/2022 15:10

BigT I am not sure whether is was MMs company do your own research.

Re Ingenuity and Mrsimmons question, ingenuity is currently priced at zero by the market and zero by mrsimmons too it would appear.

I personally take another view and think RBCs recent report valuing Ingenuity 4.5 billion to more in line with my expectations.

mrsimmons has factored this into his 95p valuation which is probably one of the reasons why our valuations differ.

mrsimmons said on Friday ( post 12202 ) that THG was fair value at 95p a share which is 16% below the current share price.

This figure includes a 30% 'inexperience management' discount. If you take this 30% discount out of his valuation, I personally think it has no right being there, then even THG's biggest skeptic has THG trading at 46% below what he considers to be fair value.

This is what Mrsmmons said on Friday - let's say revenues settle down at £3bn a year at 5% margin (I see further margin pressure) and they cut the capex from the utterly ridiculous £200m a year to something like maintenance capex at say £50m then by my valuations it would be worth £3bn @ 5% = £150 FCF before capex £50 less rent £20m = £80m at a 8% discount rate gets you to c. 1.1bn. Add on cash they currently have gets me to an EV of £1.5bn. BUT I would want a 30% discount for the inexperienced management team which has to be swapped out ASAP so c£1.1bn is about right. About 95p a share.