Thg Share Discussion Threads

[guns1inger] 18/2/2022 14:00

Ingenuity is nothing extraordinary; especially it can be copied, the barriers to entry are low in this area.

Copycat with more money will pounce in.

Ingenuity will be worth zero in a year or two.

It was just a buzzword for underwriters to get an overvalued IPO, earning commission and screwing investors.

[guns1inger] 18/2/2022 13:40

BTW 2nd share offering is releasing stock to the market, it's not funding as such.

It's to provide liquidity to the market.

[guns1inger] 18/2/2022 13:37

srs8

There is no such thing as Karma. Are you Buddhist?

Any moral system that posits a one size fits all explanation is pointless, since morality, like colour, is defined by its differences.

Just claiming people are bullies is immoral. No one is bullying no one, it's a discussion forum board, if you do not have the ability to discuss pros and cons, please do not interject in any discussion.

How can you possibly know when we have no investment here? This is irrelevant, it's a discussion forum,

[sankshiela] 18/2/2022 13:37

Quarter Brain = the laughing stock of advfn

[sankshiela] 18/2/2022 13:34

Hahahahahahahaa
Allan quarter brain is back- learnt to spell yet kiddo

[billionarebob] 18/2/2022 13:32

Ingenuity v Shopify

Shopify's expected revenue this year is predicted to be $4.57B - let's compare solely on ingenuity commerce currently valued at zero. This is what RBC said:
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'The broker said there is value in THG Ingenuity, the e-commerce platform that has been the butt of much of the City's ire, or more than the zero currently being attributed to it by the market.
An order book more than doubling in 2021 gives momentum going forward and revenue is forecast to increase tenfold over the next five years to £500mln.

SoftBank’s proposed deal with THG to buy 20% of Ingenuity for US$1.6bn, originally announced last May, will go ahead believes RBC, albeit it is possible the terms will be amended. '
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So half a billion in 5 years, I personally think with current 100% YOY growth it will take 4 years. EBITDA of 60% similar to Shopify, so if Shopify current market cap is $106 billion down from a high a few months ago of $200 billion then ingenuity value based on similar in 4 years could be revenue $680 million (based on the current rate of $1.36 to the pound) which is 7 times less than Shopify, this gives Ingenuity a potential projected price range of between $16 billion and $28 billion based on current Shopify figures?

Ingenuity is currently priced at zero and has always been the golden ticket and that is why SoftBank wants it and in my opinion will not walk away :)

[billionarebob] 18/2/2022 13:30

Mr Simmons, if you want to talk EPITDA look at what they said last month in the webcast.

THG Ingenutiy extract from Jan 2022 webcast:
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The Position then with Ingenuity Commerce the annual growth rate was 135% we delivered over 15 million revenue in the quarter which was over 30% higher than our previous record quarter.
In terms of the key stats that we would pull out, we increase the number of live websites to 187, which is a 100 up in the year.
The recurring revenue per website increased to £240,000 pounds, the recurring revenue mix was at 72%, now our new revenue run rate has increased to 61 million.
Now those stats reflect how successful J&V growth was with our clients in the quarter.
In addition, although we don't mention anything specifically ourselves, you may have picked out the Matalan press release. Where will be working with them on their digital revolution?
I would put a substantial amount of work into winning substantial clients like that, although none of the revenue on that account will be recognised in this year. That will start to kick in quarter one, along with other substantial wins that we have got.
And I remind everyone in terms of guidance for 2022 of 108 to 112 million, that's predicated on launching 400 and taking a number of client solutions to 400 from the 109 that we have got at the moment.
Which is 85% of those contracts that are already contracted with us. It assumes a recurring revenue per website of £170,000 pounds and a recurring revenue mix of 60% so it doesn't include any of the new business that we currently can win, have won, and expect to win later in the year.
We are super confident on the numbers for 2022 and very proud of the growth that we've delivered in the success of working with our clients in 2021.
-----
They are smashing it!!! and this part of the business, Ingenuity, is currently priced at ZERO!!

This is the best bit:
'It doesn't include any of the new business that we currently can win, have won, and expect to win later in the year'

Let me remind you of what RBC said last week:
"We project that Ingenuity Commerce could increase tenfold to £0.5bn of revenue in five years, with at an EBITDA margin of around 60%, drives our discounted cashflow valuation for the segment of £4.4bn. Yet the market is attributing no value at all."

RBC added that it did not expect Softbank to walk away.

[guns1inger] 18/2/2022 13:24

Bob

I believe bldm, has stated he changed his mind in December regarding THG, and it turns out he did the right thing. So no point cutting and pasting old posts when he confirmed that he's no longer have this view two months later.

He had insight into an impending disaster, showing the share price.


Folks have the right to change their view when parameters are changing, by the day. PIs have to learn how to factor in new information, then re-assess.

Normal folks will not stay in a path of the tsunami, plasma from an erupting volcano if they are taking a stroll in those directions, but then again, it seems many are staying in the past of plasma from the volcano coming their way.

[mrsimmons] 18/2/2022 13:12

I have read the Numis note in detail and it is very clear what the issue is. I keep saying it - the cash outflows for the margin returns are scandalous.

What is the CFO doing - I am wondering if they do any returns analysis on all this capex spend. It shouldn't be that expensive to install an autostore. I know one FTSE250 did it for c.$10m total spend in the US.

It is staggering that Margins are going down this year with all that back office/distribution/technology investment AND growing ingenuity revenues which should improve the margin mix. That means the underlying business margins are being hammered and the savings on all this capex are negigble.

I think management team have gotten caught up in the hype - they think they are rock stars. The CEO and CFO have to go ASAP.

[bldm] 18/2/2022 12:23

Bob, that was in December. SoftBank, Goldman, BlackRock, Sofina and a lot of other very smart investors thought this was going higher than the £7 it was last year. So your argument has no weight. What has weight is that you've been predicting the bottom since 400. Unlike you, I change my opinion based on the current facts and figures. Second, this can go higher and it can go to £10 but the situation today is different to Dec. Had you sold in Dec, you wouldn't have endured the 50% drop since then. You're holding onto a losing share rather than buying winning shares 🤣. I'll buy when something material changes and/or the prospects look better and there are a few economic indicators to follow here.

You realise THG can raise money tomorrow and dilute you massively right? That's an added risk when holding on to this. Of course they'll raise at something under £1 and on top of the dilution, your holding will instantly drop another 10s of % on value. Good luck getting your money back after this when the company itself has valued it's shares at, say, 60p. It will take a decade. I can't predict the future but there are major major risks with this company. MM is about to break it up into bits and we haven't heard a word on this. Instead there are crazy rumours about PEs...the thing has more intrigue than a South American soap opera.

I love your selective brain. You choose to believe some analysts at RBC rather than the hard truth which is the market. And if the analyst posts something negative you label him as colluding with the shorts and hedge funds. Maybe so some research on how accurate analyst forecasts are, from memory, it was 50/50.

[billionarebob] 18/2/2022 12:08

All guns blazing don't shoot the messenger bldm thinks THG is going to £10 in 2 to 3 years

bldm - 10 Dec 2021 - 00:26:43 - 5873 of 10808 The Hut Group - THG
Tomorrow it could drop 10%. I hope it doesn't but I don't see how today's jump means much in the grand scheme of things. This stock will go to £10 in 2-3 years time but how it gets there is impossible to predict.

[guns1inger] 18/2/2022 12:00

srs8

Please do not shoot the messengers.

Attack the posts, not the posters. Ad Hominem is a sign of weakness.

[bldm] 18/2/2022 11:59

The fact that THG is underpriced means nothing. Plenty of companies that are underpriced on paper and trade at even lower parameters to THG. And of you look back, you'll see that when they were similar to THG on the various ratios, they kept going down. Unfortunately, there is no barrier to this falling to much lower from here. Hold on to your socks.

My point is, for this to go up, investors need to trust in the company. Trust is what will make this go up. Investors value trust. This is why management trustworthiness is so important with companies that are not yet profitable - you are putting money based purely on trust.

[johnymakesit] 18/2/2022 11:56

Softbank will not take the option. They made mistakes with Arm Holdings too, WeWork and many others.

Their biggest win is Alibaba.

[johnymakesit] 18/2/2022 11:55

Bob

No one cares what MM says, they view him as the main liability for this PLC.

The only way is to stop the rot, is to do a second offering, release a lot more stock to improve governance and this will force structural ownership change, but this is not going to happen.

[bldm] 18/2/2022 11:53

Billionarebob thinks SoftBank will take up the option 🤦