Thg Share Discussion Threads

[billionarebob] 08/2/2022 11:57

Malta I cannot predict the future you just have to look at the facts in front of you and then make your own decision. If you are not 100% sure on whatever it is you are thinking about investing in then walk away all IMHO of course :)

[london07] 08/2/2022 11:57

Simple question

WHY ARE YOU HERE??? Why so desperate, and why spend so much time if you don't hold? Don't tell me you are altruistic in nature hahahaha

By you spouting absolute rubbish isn't going to make anyone sell. Fantastic opportunity to buy at these low levels!!!

[mrsimmons] 08/2/2022 11:51

Even when I ignore the fact this hound loses FCF every year and will do for the next 4/5 years there are also some severe headwinds coming up - cost inflation hitting margins, consumers under pressure with cost of living (slows revenue growth), nutrition -getting more competitive (Huel, gymshark all going hard at it). By my calc They need £4.5bn of sales to break even cash. 2027 is my prediction for FCF break even. Who knows what the nutrition/beauty landscape will look like by then. The only hope is Ingenuity and winning contracts with the likes of Matalan is not going to cut it.

the capex/rent/"excpetional" spend kills this business. You can't spend 300m a year with only 2/3 even 4bn sales at 7% margins which arguably will go even lower. The economics don't work. It really is that simple.

This is a steady plodder and 1-1.5bn market cap is about right. Those hoping for IPO prices are sadly living in Disney land.

[maltajellied] 08/2/2022 11:50

billionarebob 8 Feb '22 - 11:40 - 10355 of 10357
But even if you were having a blind punt £1.30 is a great entry price for this share.

Not if it goes down to 110p. Or 100p. Or 90p.
So many times on this thread people have said the same thing i.e. "surely this can't go lower"
Then it drops again.

[boix] 08/2/2022 11:48

It sounded like these discussions started a while ago?
It would be in there interest to hold price down to increase leverage and help them make some money ahead of any announcement.
Probably also the reason GS took their price target down today as they are involved -I posted it earlier.

[billionarebob] 08/2/2022 11:44

BOIX I don't think they are I think they are still talking remember there are several PE involved so it gonna take some time.

[mcmather] 08/2/2022 11:44

Re what is an interesting share price; GS, who were the bookrunner for BRs disposal at 195, today issued that price target of 275...

[billionarebob] 08/2/2022 11:40

Malta you have to stop looking at the share price every 5 minutes. Stock markets are about investing in companies not share prices. But even if you were having a blind punt £1.30 is a great entry price for this share. Like I said would you rather pay £8.00 or £1.30 same company different share price. ALL the analysts have this as oversold.

[boix] 08/2/2022 11:34

I wonder if PE are now short and holding this down?
They have perfect knowledge so they are in the driving seat.

[maltajellied] 08/2/2022 11:30

At 128p now, lower than the close a week ago. All the excitement from Friday afternoon has died off.

[billionarebob] 08/2/2022 11:17

London07 I personaly think they have already smashed their ingenuity forecast and this is why they are SUPER CONFIDENT:

Remember they said:

'And I remind everyone in terms of guidance for 2022 of 108 to 112 million, that's predicated on launching 400 and taking a number of client solutions to 400 from the 109 that we have got at the moment.
Which is 85% of those contracts that are already contracted with us. It assumes a recurring revenue per website of £170,000 pounds and a recurring revenue mix of 60% so it doesn't include any of the new business that we currently can win, have won, and expect to win later in the year.
We are super confident on the numbers for 2022 and very proud of the growth that we've delivered in the success of working with our clients in 2021.'

It is this bit that caught my eye:

It doesn't include any of the new business that we currently can win, have won, and expect to win later in the year.

Some folk say that the markets never get it wrong. Am sorry but to value Ingenuity at zero is not only wrong it is absolute nonesense :)

[billionarebob] 08/2/2022 11:10

Malta don't focus on the share price focus on the company, the company is the same as it was at IPO, in fact, it has smashed IPO targets so you could argue it is a better company. Would you rather pay £8 for THG or £1.30, same company?

No analysts have this at this price it is massively oversold and that is why there is so much interest from PE's if no bids come in it is because they haven't offered enough money.

Remember ingenuity is valued at zero which is crazy.

[london07] 08/2/2022 11:09

Bbob - Exactly. And ingenuity commerce forecasted to grow 140-145% in 2022!

[london07] 08/2/2022 11:07

Why do I get the feeling, when this starts rocketing upwards soon, all these low life's will go AWOL

[maltajellied] 08/2/2022 11:02

Considering the PE "news" on Friday resulted in an 18% bump, it doesn't look too optimistic when the price has fallen ever since.

Considering, also, that this is THG, would anyone be surprised if no bids came along?

[billionarebob] 08/2/2022 10:57

How long is a piece of string? It will take as long as it takes :)
And no if none of them make a bid it doesn't mean they have seen something that they don't like behind the scenes. Normally it is because parties cannot agree on a price :)

[maltajellied] 08/2/2022 10:52

How long does it typically take before one of these PE companies makes a bid?
And if none of them make a bid, does that mean they have seen something that they don't like behind the scenes?
The CAPEX/profit required to cover it situation is certainly very interesting.

[billionarebob] 08/2/2022 10:48

This is what they said about Ingenuity if you missed it:

They said they are SUPER CONFIDENT for Ingenuity in 2022

Below is THG Ingenutiy extract from Jan 2022 webcast:
-----
The Position then with Ingenuity Commerce the annual growth rate was 135% we delivered over 15 million revenue in the quarter which was over 30% higher than our previous record quarter.
In terms of the key stats that we would pull out, we increase the number of live websites to 187, which is a 100 up in the year.
The recurring revenue per website increased to £240,000 pounds, the recurring revenue mix was at 72%, now our new revenue run rate has increased to 61 million.
Now those stats reflect how successful J&V growth was with our clients in the quarter.
In addition, although we don't mention anything specifically ourselves, you may have picked out the Matalan press release. Where will be working with them on their digital revolution?
I would put a substantial amount of work into winning substantial clients like that, although none of the revenue on that account will be recognised in this year. That will start to kick in quarter one, along with other substantial wins that we have got.
And I remind everyone in terms of guidance for 2022 of 108 to 112 million, that's predicated on launching 400 and taking a number of client solutions to 400 from the 109 that we have got at the moment.
Which is 85% of those contracts that are already contracted with us. It assumes a recurring revenue per website of £170,000 pounds and a recurring revenue mix of 60% so it doesn't include any of the new business that we currently can win, have won, and expect to win later in the year.
We are super confident on the numbers for 2022 and very proud of the growth that we've delivered in the success of working with our clients in 2021.
-----
They are smashing it!!! and this part of the business, Ingenuity, is currently priced at ZERO!!

This is the best bit:
'It doesn't include any of the new business that we currently can win, have won, and expect to win later in the year'

Let me remind you of what RBC said last week:
"We project that Ingenuity Commerce could increase tenfold to £0.5bn of revenue in five years, with at an EBITDA margin of around 60%, drives our discounted cashflow valuation for the segment of £4.4bn. Yet the market is attributing no value at all."

RBC added that it did not expect Softbank to walk away.

Can't wait for the next update :)

Ingenuity and the current take over talks from several PE companies is whey I holding on to my shares :)

[billionarebob] 08/2/2022 10:42

THG is smashing IPO targets, investing in fulfillment, and growing its e-commerce platforms at very impressive rates. Below is MMs opening statement from the January 2022 webcast.

THG IPO was £5, the fact that Ingenuity is currently priced at zero (RBC & softBank have valuations of 4.5 billion) and the share price has dropped to £1.30 is absolutely CRAZY. Personally, I think SoftBank will take up the option, the golden nugget is Ingenuity, an easy to set up global business with unlimited customers, and an EBITDA of 60% - you do the maths?

Is it any wonder several PE companies are interested in purchasing this sleeping unicorn.

This is Matt Mouldings opening statement before the webcast:

I am pleased to be reporting record full-year sales of 2.2 billion pounds in line with guidance following continued strong growth in the final quarter.

This is particularly pleasing considering the lockdown comparables from Q4 2020 and the wider challenging macro environment.

On a constant currency basis, the 2-year growth rate was circa 95% for both the full year and during Q4. Even after adjusting for M/A contributions we've scaled revenue and expanded our business model, particularly ingenuity well ahead of expectations given at our IPO 16 months ago.

At IPO we guided the market to 2021 revenues of circa 1.75 billion and are pleased to be reporting 2.2 billion including M/A which is roughly around 2 billion pounds excluding M/A.

And that growth has been broad-based with all our divisions once again delivering meaningful growth year on year. Notably, our Ingenuity Commerce proposition has delivered further significant growth in live sites during the year, with significant client wins in the 4th quarter contributed from Q1 onwards.

For the year as a whole ingenuity, Commerce revenues grew by around 135%.

2021 was also a year of significant investment for the group as we further developed capacity within our global fulfillment network which dispatched on average one million units per day during the peak trading week.

In the 2nd half of the year, we moved into our UK technology campus Icon bringing together fulfillment, print on demand, and personalization services and are content creation facility THG studios

We remain on track with our acquisition integration strategy notably for Dermstore and Cult beauty which were both migrated to the ingenuity platform ahead of schedule

During the year we invested around one billion pounds in support of our strategic growth plans adding 1 million square feet to our warehouse infrastructure, building new functionality across our technology, and also in strategic M/A

The group also created many new jobs during the year, with 3000 new colleagues joining the group both in the UK and internationally.

At this point, I would like to say on behalf of the management team here with me today a huge thank you to our talented team across the globe for their outs

[hamhamham1] 08/2/2022 10:40

Picked up a few Ocado at 1245p today, dont tell Debs as they didn't make a profit :0