Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[e j blythe] 17/11/2015 13:55

2 quid before Xmas

[tancro] 17/11/2015 08:58

Still on for 190+ this week

[gbh2] 17/11/2015 08:19

My long bets are mostly back in profit, just one on the brink :))

[moneybags] 16/11/2015 21:09

Still can't see anything wrong with this stock.

Looks fine to me for the next year.

Common sense prevails.UK needs houses, even if the price for them falls so as I see it, TW have it covered.

Usual December rally should be good..............as usual.
Good divi etc

Regards , Moneybags

[spudders] 16/11/2015 20:18

Dispatches C4 not painting a pretty picture for TW.

All issues are being addressed as stated in trading statement. I'm still adding on dips 😃

[e j blythe] 16/11/2015 19:14

More like the old days today!

[tancro] 16/11/2015 16:39

Expecting 190+ by end of week

[jugears] 16/11/2015 14:04

At last common sense has returned, Taffee why don't you live for today & not what might happen tomorrow.

[gbh2] 16/11/2015 07:30

Confirms what we've been discussing: there's nothing wrong with the company just that there's a concerted effort by the institutional holders to drive the share price down and I guess they've no real need to stop until we near dividend time !

[martyn9] 16/11/2015 07:28

After a brilliant statement as that i will be amazed if this crashes again today,but hedge funds,market in general is in armagedon mode!!

[taffee] 16/11/2015 07:17

Great update other than costs increasing offset by never ending price rises...reading these statements you would think we are in some amazing economic boom!when in reality we have emergency economic policy because things are really really bad that's why the mkt thinks
It's not sustainable

[dr_smith] 15/11/2015 15:52

Hi Jugears,
Thank-you for your insight and perspective.
I can see if land andmaterials were in short supply, your strategy could be favoured.
My understanding is that land is a bit easier to obtain now, and likely to become easier, along with pressure on planning depts for re-purposing of land for new build.

If you make say 15% mark up on sale, plus cap gain, then doing say 25% more turnover, would mean cap gain element is a near constant, but your profit margin would also go up 25%+ (and fixed overheads already covered).

I gather bricks are harder to obtain and more labour (requiring training) implies more costs, so believe there is plenty of room to increase t/o, but some costs may increase.

Re market saturation.
I believe UK is targeting 250,000 houses this year, against annual need of 450,000, plus backlog going back 10? years, so we have a long way to go before breakeven, so some way off before saturating market.

IMO :-)

Co-incidentally I was just talking to a carpenter at lunch time who is also working flat out for housing sector.

[jugears] 14/11/2015 16:55

DR-SMITH
Joinery Maufacturer,Personally I think that if you own land why build all your houses at once the more years you spread the building the better the return, If say TW had the workers & supply chain to double capacity this would not only increase the supply of houses but would also saturate the market & bring house prices down having a negative effect, Why build ten houses when you can get the same return on 8 ? At the end of the day I think that if they wanted to increase capacity they could the only reason that there are supply chain problems (Mainly bricks)is because know one keeps any stock these days, people have become far to short sighted & can not see or plan long term, My own problem is that companies leave it till the last minute to order things that can take six weeks to manufacture & still expect it next day(which was possible during the early days of the down turn, but not like that now)personally I think current build level is more than sustainable for at least the next 5 years & I am shore Most house bilders agree. These are In my opinion a long term hold with plenty of upside'but you might have to wait a while.

[spudders] 14/11/2015 16:46

I added at 177.93 on Friday, then it dropped as usual 😢 but come Monday all will be well. TW. are very busy and they are rectifying snags and defects much quicker. GLA

[dr_smith] 14/11/2015 15:47

Jugears:
I have just added TW to my collection of builders.
I am curious re your comment on your order book for supply.
Can you say what aspect of supply you are in?

Given that you, and no doubt your counterparts, are working flat out, and building is not increasing at the rate in demand, is it fair to say, if builders wanted to increase output further, they would be hard pressed to, as supply chain cannot support them, or, do you see suppliers ramping up capacity to keep pace if demand was even higher - say 15-20%?

Nice to have grass roots opinion :-)

[jugears] 14/11/2015 12:17

I am up over 800% & have other business Intersets & assets So why sell I would have to pay 40% tax On any profit at the moment So in effect these are only worth around 1.20 to me anyway,taffee you can say what you like & a lot i agree with & at some point the bubble will burst, but will recover as it always does,nothing goes up for ever without retacing itself The problem is there is always going to be boom & bust its a constant cycle, I don't know how old you are so I don't know how many recceions you have been through, but if you go back thirty years & see what houses/Land & shares were worth compared to wages you have a pretty good indication of where we will be in say 10 years time whether it is right or not I am sure that these will be In the £4-5 range because people will alway invest in stock market for a better income, In 40 years of investing I have bought probbly only 50 or so companies of those the only money I have ever lost was on a company called Voyagerit.com & Baldwin Cranes, But could have sold all of them at between 50 & 75% below what I paid for them, It is just a game of patience, If you invest in a solid company they all come good in the end & beleive me TW are a very solid well ran company & that is why I continue to hold & take my dividends In shares rather than cash

[taffee] 14/11/2015 10:02

But at some point you have to sell to realise the profit...as you say
Shares can plunge 90% as tw has done in the past so it's worth banking profit when you can otherwise what's the point?

Over 200p may have been the top maybe not but if you are up several hundred % then more fool investors who don't bank otherwise you just sit and watch profits disappear

I see what you are saying but I guess it depends on your strategy..available funds and
What you would use banked money for

[jugears] 13/11/2015 20:43

I have been investing for 40 years & during that time i have seen many recesions & stock market falls & corrections, nothing goes up in a straight line, But what I do know is that companies that are cash & asset rich will survive most down turns & each time come out the other side a much stronger company. I have seen shares fall by 90% & recover higher than they were before, trading is for the long term you have to forget the inbetween.Tw own a lot of land, What you need to remember is that when a down turn arrives building costs go down as well as most of Tw staff are agency & it costs nothing to get rid of them also if a down turn comes building material price will halve overnight & so will labour costs thus reducing build cost & off setting House price reductions, Personally & from experience (I have also worked for Wimpey)I think Tw are well placed to weather Any storm at the moment & Monday will bring proof of that, I could be wrong but added More shares today as I strongly believe that there is Know justification For these to have fallen below £1.94. Years ago I invested in A local company to me Called Next for 56p a share,(Just as George Davis was taking over)some of which I still own (How I wish I had kept the other 5000 shares,But little did I know what difference a few years would make, Investing really is about locking money away for a long time & being patient, I had to wait 15 years for my 10p chloride shares to come good but it was worth the wait, Many times I have seen sharp rises & falls on the stock market but I have seen my portfolio increase by over a thousand percent on my origanal investements going back over 30 years & I have never traded any of them, My mentor told me that you only loose money if you sell when things are going down, be patient & sit it out & that has been better advice than any other that I have Had. It would take a lot to bring a company like Tw down & really they should have crashed at the begging of the recession how they managed to turn the company around I will never fully understand but have always had faith in Tw management & would rate them the best company I have worked for/supplied too out of all the house builders.

[m4rtinu] 13/11/2015 20:42

Thought this was a general market fall and nothing esp wrong with TW. However over the last month, FTSE 100 down 2%; TW down 10%.

[battue2] 13/11/2015 19:47

Looks as though it might close that big trading gap at 166p after all.T traders will be waiting for this.
JUGEARS I agree, ive been here since 10p although I think 5-10 years may land you in the next downturn. gl

[e j blythe] 13/11/2015 14:57

I will double up my 182p purchase at 170.

Just ride this one out!

Those who have held from 207 should realise nothing goes up forever!

[gbh2] 12/11/2015 14:06

That would be nice but as long as there's a interest rate increase on the horizon be it here or in the USA iom the HFs will keep eroding the share price

[e j blythe] 12/11/2015 13:53

Expect these to back in the 190s on the 16th then!

[martyn9] 12/11/2015 09:44

Gbh,I have a feeling you could be bang on with that theory.