Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[el1te] 29/4/2014 07:28

tara - No-one can correctly predict what's going to happen around the world next year, let alone in 20 years

[tara7] 29/4/2014 07:10

Note wages are going to be flat for the next 20 years as others around the world can do just about everything cheaper.

Thus as soon as rates rise house prices fall.

Last time punters were saved by low rates.

This time they will be cooked.

House prices need to fall 60% plus and tend to overshoot,so 75% might well be on the cards.

[sr2day] 28/4/2014 23:45

basically,the risks to share price on the downside.

[bobsidian] 28/4/2014 18:41

With the level of nominal debt being taken on by the average residential property buyer it would probably only need relatively small increases in mortgage rates to trigger a correction in residential property prices.

The typical SVR now stands at around 3.75-4%. The Bank of England are suggesting that they will walk up the base rate from 0.5% to 3% by the end of 2016 or early 2017. If these moves are fed through by mortgagors then you are looking at an SVR of 6.25-6.5%. That historically small move in the Bank of England base rate could equate to around a 60% increase in the amount of mortgage interest to be paid by mortgagees. Even if mortgage rates are slowly ratcheted higher it is hard to imagine there being no impact on residential property prices.

How far into the future are market forces looking ? If they are only looking one year into the future then the correction in the share price of TW. may be only that - a near term correction. But if they are looking up to two years into the future then market forces may be seeking to price in the impact of a residential property price correction. And if it is the latter over the former which is guiding market forces, then they do not need to look that far into the past for reference to gauge the impact on housebuilder earnings.

[sr2day] 28/4/2014 17:30

dow 12k TW --p. fill in the blanks.experts in housing are welcomed.

[gbh2] 28/4/2014 17:04

Money has been coming out for the last month, I did tell you that at least two weeks ago, the value of your holding may be down but the potential hasn't changed and a loss isn't a loss until you part with your shares!

Let tara run around like a headless chicken, but whilst he/she is doing so ask yourself why he/she is even bothering here if the future is sooooooooo bleak!

[aspers] 28/4/2014 17:02

It's hard to believe that one of the most profitable Company in the UK with a great order book for the next 2 years is down 25% in the last month.......the market is full of bloody crooks if you ask me........that said I really expect to see this close to £2 by the end of the year.

[casino444] 28/4/2014 15:53

90s here we come , it now appears builders have had there run for the time being money coming out now , let's see if there's any support at 99/100. interesting next day or two

[taffee] 28/4/2014 15:35

When bond vigilantes start shorting bonds then the 10 year benchmark could soar
This affect mortgages rates and government debt could cause a run
On the pound....governments can raise rates to protect

Greek bonds were 1% in 2009 for 1 year bond and ended over 800%!

[el1te] 28/4/2014 14:57

You continue to miss the point that the Bank of England is not going to shove up interest rates to 2% if there are fears of a house price crash, let alone 5% or 15%.

[essentialinvestor] 28/4/2014 14:52

Very sensible move., regardless of your views on the sector.

[taffee] 28/4/2014 14:35

Breaking news...banks to be stress tested for 35% house price drop and
5% base rate

[ja48] 28/4/2014 09:41

Thanks shaws

[tara7] 28/4/2014 08:15

The average weekly wage in Burnley is £308.50 – nearly 20 per cent lower than the national average and three-quarters of Burnley's wards have a household income below the Lancashire average.

£16,000 times income 3 or let's say 4 = 64k

To buy your new home a mere 8 times local wage!

Thanks again for telling us all what is fact and the reason at some stage prices will come down .

[taffee] 28/4/2014 08:14

Charts are interesting but didn't predict the fall from 130 to 103!

Great in hindsight...if it was so accurate all investors would be millionaires

[tickler] 28/4/2014 08:06

Burnley! And Premier league football next season as well.

[tara7] 28/4/2014 07:43

4 bed for £130k where in the UK.?

[ja48] 27/4/2014 20:18

Can you tell me what filling gaps is all about please ?.

[shaws67] 27/4/2014 20:11

Some gaps to fill at some point.....

[shaws67] 27/4/2014 19:57

Not sure about London but where I am builders (TW, BDEV & Persimmons) are building affordable homes, from 120k 3 bedroom & 4 bedroom houses starting at 130k

Same houses in London you could probably add 100k on each.

[techknow] 27/4/2014 19:48

They be sleeping in industrial estates, sheds, tents, caravans like those that can no longer afford to live in a house or flat in this country. What a dump this country is.