Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[gbh2] 20/5/2014 09:26

"immigration has always been the case in the UK,"

Because those with the real money are greedy *wats and want more & more for less & less, immigration will continues for as long as there's no political will to enforce the payment of a decent living wage to the man on the shop floor!

The Directors will keep on doubling their salaries every 5 years whilst doing their utmost to keep real wages as low as possible by employing agency & other temporary staff from wherever!

[essentialinvestor] 19/5/2014 18:51

That all make 0 difference, the UK has a rapidly growing population and
that's not going to change.
A major increase in house building will ultimately result, that's why
the sector is attractive longer term.

[fangorn2] 19/5/2014 18:09

Essential investor

Fang, even if that was not the case the current volume of new builds is too low. Migration has helped to bring this discussion to a stage where they will need
to agree on ways to dramatically increase the volume of new property builds.

The extent of the net migration to this country has massively exacerbated the problem - and it's one that increases each decade as migrants reproduce at a far greater rate than the indigenous population. Couple that to net migration of 150-200k per year and its pretty obvious why we are running out of houses.

elective use of green belt is likely as one measure.

Why should we carpet over the green belt to satisfy this new build - why satisfy an ever expanding population of non Brits by running it for the rest of us, Brits,and non Brits, who have lived here for generations???


The BOE Governor sums it up well .. Canada build twice as many properties every
year than the UK and have half our population, and the BOE is unable to build a single property

You realise Canada is at least Thirty Seven times the land mass of the UK right?

Canada 9,093,507km2
UK 241,930 km2

Poor effort by Canada in relative terms.They may have half our population but their land mass is 37x ours.

[clarky5150] 19/5/2014 14:44

I'm sure our Eastern European friends could develop a taste for Guinness.

[essentialinvestor] 19/5/2014 12:13

clarky, pre 2008 the ROI was building more properties annually than the UK.

The population of the ROI is approx 4.6 Million.

Greater London alone = 8.6 Million people and rising fast.

[clarky5150] 19/5/2014 12:04

Last time I looked Dublin had loads of swish condos built on euro funding sat empty. I'm sure they could be filled with our latest arrivals. They could even fill the car wash buckets straight from the river Liffey.

[aspers] 19/5/2014 11:20

Homeboy.....hopefully, I got it just about right last year, buying in Feb 2013 at 75p and calling fir 140p one year on, I was not far off as we got an intraday high of 133 a week before.

[homeboy35] 19/5/2014 11:03

aspers,

really hope you are in the right ballpark.

[essentialinvestor] 19/5/2014 11:02

Fang, even if that was not the case the current volume of new builds is too low.
Migration has helped to bring this discussion to a stage where they will need
to agree on ways to dramatically increase the volume of new property builds.
Selective use of green belt is likely as one measure.


The BOE Governor sums it up well .. Canada build twice as many properties every
year than the UK and have half our population, and the BOE is unable to build a single property

The sector is in a sweet spot over the longer term as a result imv.

[gbh2] 19/5/2014 10:27

One of the BIGGEST problems we have in this country is too many folk with every excuse in the book for doing nothing, we need change and I mean change in a big way!!

[fangorn2] 19/5/2014 09:40

The only fix for this Country us to build more houses.

Really? How about reducing the 150,000-200,000 NET migration this country gets?

More houses would be more affordable housing.

And where are you going to build? Across the flood plains again? we've seen ho well that worked out.

[aspers] 19/5/2014 09:31

The only fix for this Country us to build more houses.......at this price TW a raving bargain.....the help to buy scheme will be re tweaked to help 1st time buyers only but the only thing I see over the next two years or so is boom time for the builders.......if TW not knocking on the door of 200p by this time next year As they say I'll eat my trowel and spade :-)

[gbh2] 19/5/2014 09:22

Seems to me that house builds have only "one fix that fits all" and that's to build significantly more houses.

[shaws67] 17/5/2014 16:49

New targets for Taylor Wimpey make shares look attractive
Shares in Taylor Wimpey (TW) are beginning to look 'relatively attractive' to Peel Hunt as the housebuilder sets outs medium-term targets.

Analyst Clyde Lewis retained a 'hold' recommendation and a target price of 127p after management set out medium term targets for 2015-2017 that average 20% operating margin and at least 20% return on net operating assets. It also set out an average 15% increase per year in net assets. Shares jumped 7.9p, or 7.4%, to 114.2p on the news.

'To us that means forecasts are probably 5-7% light for 2015-2017,' said Lewis. 'Given this commitment, we consider the cautious capital return policy announced with the finals looks even more conservative. The shares are now trading on a 10-15% net asset value discount, and this is starting to look relatively attractive again.'




Lewis said that until fears about the overheating property market subsided it would be 'hard to see the sector performing strongly despite ongoing improvements in estimates' and he was unable to increase his rating on the company.


City wire.

[shaws67] 17/5/2014 11:22

You must still have them then. Ok, no probs.

[bobsidian] 17/5/2014 11:14

And market peaks are characterised by an abundance of positive bias when past performance is complacently considered a guide to future performance.

Steady capital inflows are the norm as newcomers take the place of those realising gains. Market highs tend to form when there is a significant and unseasonal slowing in the pace of net inflows. A better guide to overvaluation or undervaluation comes in the form of the nature and extent of insider dealings.

Whereas the FTSE100 sits near its peak, there is much evidence of profit taking in the lesser indices particularly since the beginning of March.

Be in no doubt, there are two sides to an equity market. Short sellers have been frustrated by the power of the flows into equity markets over the last 18 months and are itching to drive elevated markets back down. Many are wondering about just what will happen as the Federal Reserve moves toward ending its current programme of quantitative easing and ceases to be the major marginal source of additional liquidity.

[shaws67] 17/5/2014 10:55

bobsidian, have you sold your TW shares?

[5bag] 17/5/2014 10:55

Its come back from 130 to current 100's range. Thats what i'd call a healthy correction. Could get lower, but im not sure its a probable event, unless we see a black swan hit the market. It depends if you go on a beach holiday planning for a tsunami or not, i.e scared of shadow/glass half empty type. Certain sections do get skittish when they perceive that the market cannot go any higher, and focus on negatives and possible disasters to reinforce their negative bias, giving them comfort. Im not sure the pace of exiting the markets is as high as you think either, there are some big fund managers experiencing steady capital inflows. You have to look at a wide spread of data to make such assumptions, not just stuff what gets posted on zerohedge/disaster blogs etc.

[bobsidian] 17/5/2014 10:52

If history is a guide then there is no need for prayer.

Ultimately all booms are followed by busts.

[libertine] 17/5/2014 10:48

Somebody`s out of the market praying for it to drop!!

[bobsidian] 17/5/2014 10:05

Not recently.

And not with the kind of overvaluations which seem to exist across current equity markets. Current equity markets have the feel of 2000 and 2007 - overheated and pricing in a pace of earnings growth which is not materialising even in forward guidance.

But as share prices undergo savage correction, so opportunity comes into focus. Good examples of this are with the likes of ASC or XAR or IMG. And there are longstanding embattled companies such as FLYB, PFD and SKP which have undergone huge capital raising exercises which have the potential to transform their respective fortunes.

And it is not inconceivable that were an equity market correction to take place akin to that of early to mid 2012 then there may be scope for yet another change in market leadership. Sectors which have been out of favour could find themselves being back in favour.

[shaws67] 17/5/2014 07:43

bobsidian

I've had a quick look at your posting history, just out of curiosity.
Only went back a couple of pages.

Are there any posts in your history which have a ray of sunshine?
All I see are dark clouds.

[bobsidian] 17/5/2014 03:04

"Those currently cost dollar averaging , as I have been for over 12 moon, will reap the rewards long before any meaningful pullback..."

When you look at the share price performance of TW. over the course of the last 12 months, pound cost averaging along what may prove to be an extended top may reveal itself to be a mistimed investment strategy.

"We are around 25 minutes in to the hour cycle and , i will be exiting with 5 min remaining"

A broader bull market which has lasted for just over 5 years could hardly be referred to as being "25 minutes in to the hour cycle". The nervousness of market participants is becoming increasingly apparent with extensive profit taking being much in evidence across different sectors since the beginning of March.

However, it would be natural to see the FTSE250 sell down to around 14,000 by the end of June 2014 - a move which would represent a minimal 38.2% Fibonacci retrace of the move higher in that index from its September 2011 low to its recent peak. Few are currently conceiving of a broader market sell off being any more extensive than that. Such a move would probably see the share price of TW. whipsaw its way down to around the mid 80's.