Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[knocknock] 16/5/2014 22:24

Or carrying the burden of the North American legacy left over from the Taylor Woodrow merger.2008/09 left TW a stronger, leaner company at the expense of the then shareholders. Those currently cost dollar averaging , as I have been for over 12 moon, will reap the rewards long before any meaningful pullback and certainly before those with wilder expectations even get a foothold on the property ladder.We are around 25 minutes in to the hour cycle and , i will be exiting with 5 min remaining

[shaws67] 16/5/2014 21:32

"Memories of 2008 and 2009 will be fresh in their minds."

They are not carrying over £1bn in debt this time.

[bobsidian] 16/5/2014 20:47

The problem is what is going on in London and the South East of England, the nature of the solutions to that problem and the willingness to implement those solutions.

The current speculative frenzy has little to do with the availability of new property.

The Bank of England is once again under scrutiny. Allowing inordinate levels of increasingly unaffordable debt to be taken on whilst the base rate is at historic lows is reckless in the extreme.

And the tacit assent of government to allow the buy-to-let brigade to plunder council purses for so long and get away with charging increasingly extortionate rents will no doubt go down in history as similarly reckless mismanagement.

Noteworthy that even the OECD has been moved to express a view on the UK housing market.

[essentialinvestor] 16/5/2014 20:19

bob, agree with that, the sector is cyclical and earnings can fluctuate quickly.

However I think there is some way to go in this cycle and the volumes of
new builds remain significantly below the UK's rapidly growing population.

Bovis upped their profitability outlook on today's update, more of that to
come for the sector imv.

If wider equity markets sell off then this gets cheaper.

[bobsidian] 16/5/2014 19:39

"According to St0ck-opedia this is now on a forward PE of 8 and forward yield of 7%, great combination IMO"

Only if the forward P/E is based on achievable earnings. I recall in 2007 the metrics appearing somewhat similar. Market forces are forward looking. A 20% correction in residential property prices would wipe out 65%+ of the forecast earnings for TW. The remaining profitability would be wiped out by a mark down in the value of the land bank.

There is no need to look into the distant past for lessons on just what it takes for residential property to switch from a seller's market to a buyer's market.

As optimistic as the management of TW. are, they are not naïve. Memories of 2008 and 2009 will be fresh in their minds. One look at how housebuilders are financially positioning themselves reveals the extent of their caution.

[5bag] 16/5/2014 11:27

I did say a couple of weeks ago this could fall back to test the 104p area. If holding, dont fret, it'll be on its way again soon. I see some posters are putting up 'the obvious' and trying to unnerve longs. I guess they want their stock cheaper, as does everyone. The window is rapidly closing for cheap TW. stock.

[tara7] 16/5/2014 10:11

BKG CEO"

This approach respects the fact that the property market is cyclical and that there are continuing barriers to accelerating the delivery of new housing. By operating at a natural size with a market-leading brand and adding value in every area of the business, Berkeley can maintain the flexibility to react to changes in the market,invest opportunistically in the right locations at the right time or return surplus cash to shareholders."

TAKE NOTE OF THE FIRST LINE.!

[tara7] 16/5/2014 10:00

Sorry if my views are not the same as some here.

However take note of when the master of house builders, top dog sold shares this time round a few weeks ago.

[marky55] 16/5/2014 10:00

According to St0ck-opedia this is now on a forward PE of 8 and forward yield of 7%, great combination IMO

[tipjunkie] 16/5/2014 09:55

Isn't it about time mortgage interest rates were regionalised

no need to link them to bank rates

to have the same rate in central London as Swansea is stupid

[gbh2] 16/5/2014 09:38

Go away in May and come back on St. Leger's Day !

[naed] 16/5/2014 09:16

Agree, said it for a while. Come back St Swithins Day. Only in the case of Tw. just before in both cases.

[homeboy35] 15/5/2014 22:09

Ftse 250 was down 350 today, but still a big hit!

They do say come back when May is out!

[jugears] 15/5/2014 22:06

TARA7 Are you that person that stands on street corners telling us all that the world is going to end, You really are a sad depressig person. Why don't you just buy some shares in Tw. & see where the ride takes you, Because I am very sure that they will be a lot higher than this soon.

[gbh2] 15/5/2014 19:41

tara, the next time I take advice from a free subscriber to this thread will be the first, however I do occasionally offer advice:

If you don't like a product *iss off and leave it those those that do!

[aspers] 15/5/2014 18:48

What an effing bargain this is........pure bloody madness this fall, still another £30k for me :-))

[tara7] 15/5/2014 18:33

Gbh2, do a tad of research on trying to get a mortgage under the new rules.

If the bank over lends it is it who takes the hit not the home owner.

Thus,after all the miss selling banks will I think reduce loan sizes by about a third and not only that,refuse 50% more outright.!

[gbh2] 15/5/2014 18:20

I couldn't resist purchasing a few today, took them on a T20 so hope for a quick 5% in the next month.

[el1te] 15/5/2014 17:36

"Hang on tight".

Will do Tara. Will hang on to TW. shares at these prices ;)

[tara7] 15/5/2014 17:34

You all think rates will rise slowly,they might,but when you have a product over valued by a factor of 6 - 12 in London and a factor of 4 in the SE a 4 year old kid could tell you something is wrong.

Hang on tight.

[jugears] 15/5/2014 17:14

Interest rates will rise very slowly & I very much doubt that it will have any effect on the housing market untill maybe 3%, they may never even go that high, who really knows.

[taffee] 15/5/2014 16:55

This crunch could be the big one with more debt more leverage than 2007

Beware

[tara7] 15/5/2014 15:41

I for one hate others to make a loss on any stock.

However I do know this stock has risen 10 times plus over a few short years and if rates rise or mortgages slow the game is up.