Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[trendfloor] 25/4/2010 18:47

And in the Sundat Express.....

Taylor Wimpey is reaping the benefits of soaring sales in the US

[mr.oz] 25/4/2010 18:27

Were it to go ahead, the deal would be the first big acquisition in the recession weary housebuilding sector for more than a year and could trigger further corporate activity as companies seek to cash in on the rebounding home buying market.

"This will, rightly or wrongly, bring a run of speculative talk about the prospects of takeovers among the other house builders, but it should be remembered that this is a special case," Alastair Stewart, a housebuilding analyst at Investec said.

[smurfy2001] 25/4/2010 18:23

Hi Sheriff,

Licking your lips did you say?

How come?

Did you manage to afford a KFC with your last short?

LOL,
Smurfy



jab118 - 25 Apr'10 - 18:00 - 515 of 519

All the best chaps, licking my lips here soon hopefully.. yummy yum yum !

[the disciple] 25/4/2010 18:15

Honest i kind of agree with you , i was hoping for a pound one day though ...

[the disciple] 25/4/2010 18:14

Thought he would at least wait until the share price stopped rising !!

[honest crust] 25/4/2010 18:14

Ecohouse,
Thanks for the post but I do not believe that you have addressed the question?
TW were at 500p for two days in May 2007 when the merger went through, the readjustment of shares and share price fall meant that in 5 months they were trading at 250p.
Which is as my last post states was the period when tw. had a turnover at £2.6 billion and was in profit to the tune of £100 million.
For this to get to 200p we would need to get to higher volumes of sales,turnover and margin than we had in 2007 (height of the boom)
Don't get me wrong I would be delighted to have these at 200p but we need to be realistic of setting targets,
Charts can give you trajectory targets but you need the fundamentals of a company with return on investment for those targets to be realised.
The charts may say that this is going to be at 200p but the fact of the matter we will not get no where near that figure unless-
1.The is a huge housing boom on both sides of the atlantic which would give demand on sales an increase of at least 150% both on sales pace but also volumes.
2.This boom can be sustained by the increasing land bank requirement that would be needed.
3.The planning process allowed for quicker applications to be approved to again feed the huge supply requirements.

We both know that the above is not going to happen soon, even if we had the demand we do not have the credit available for the mortgage markets to sustain that demand.
Sorry to be pedantic but it as unhealthy to quote unachievable targets as it is for the derampers to post 28p.
If you do have some figures to support the 200p I will happily apologise for the debate

Cheers
HC

[grax] 25/4/2010 18:11

Yeeeehaw! the sheriff's back in town!
Gotta laugh.

[ecohouse] 25/4/2010 17:32

Honest Crust, its a funny thing but companies that come through downturns generally go on to achieve higher share prices than they were pre downturn even when they staged share issues. TW were above 500p a few years ago so make up your own mind. for me the chart is saying its an easy recovery to around 200p particularly as TW managed to hold on to much of their US business and have now cut the debt. I interpret Pete Redfern's bonus payment as an indication he has met his performance targets and TW are now therefore back on track.


Two items from todays Sunday Times Business:

1. Page 1 -
Hugh Osmond's investment vehicle Horizon is making a takeover of housebuilder Crest Nicholson. Further consolidation in the sector expected.

2. Page 13 -

Sharewatch - Taylor Wimpey

"Few have had it as hard these past couple of years as housebuilders. Yet it seems the sun is beginning to shine for Taylor Wimpey. Shares in the FTSE 250 construction group gained 15% to close at 44p last week on good housing news from America.

The US Commerce Department reported a 27% increase in March house sales, the biggest monthly rise in nearly half a century. The picture is also looking brighter in Britain. the government said GDP grew 0.2% in the last quarter - not exactly runaway growth, but better than the contrarian in 2008, when Taylor Wimpey chalked up a £1.9 billion loss.

Investors are likely to chafe at CEO Pete Redfern's £1.7m compensation - nearly double the previous year - despite overseeing a £640m loss last year. But the company still looks like it has more to deliver".

[honest crust] 25/4/2010 17:23

Hi Kulvinder,
Yes I am doing fine thanks,
I have reduced here to move some to my main holding and have just let the rest run (just holding short of 80k here now) but happy to bide my time.
Did I see you posting on lloy or was it rbs thread?
I hold both and pop in for a catch up from time to time.
How is the engineering world?
HC

[kulvinder] 25/4/2010 16:50

Good post HC how you doing ? Yes like you I too don't see much more than 65p/75p this year, but it would be nice to see it go higher, and I would be quite happy to admit I got it wrong. Not in this with many shares now, but may be looking to top up tomorrow dependant on price.

[the disciple] 25/4/2010 16:11

Dont forget smurfy he was doubling up if it went higher ..Howdy partner.

[honest crust] 25/4/2010 16:01

Hi jab118 long time no read,where have you been languishing?
As it happens you are one of the ones that it is tolerable because you are so useless at it,
can never forget the posting to your self with the sheriff moniker and then forgetting which name you had logged on with-Priceless!
Good luck with your short, what is your entry level-66p?
HC

[mknight] 25/4/2010 15:53

Jab118 , Why wait to see if it goes any higher ? or do you think its a racing cert . i guess you must do otherwise you would have already jumped in just as all the other shorters are trying to jump out .

[purplebox] 25/4/2010 15:44

Looking to try and buy more of these tomorrow morning but I guess that the opening price after the auction will show a premium to Fridays close :-(.

A 5% increase tomorrow would put the share price at around 46.2p - a 7.5% increase gives 47.3p and a 10% increase gives 48.4p.

A good IMS on Thursday will push these over 50.0p IMO.

[trendfloor] 25/4/2010 15:33

Lifted from across the park makes for bullish reading come monday,

Yes tipped twice ready for monday by TA/Charting sites.

Firstly from Investtech...

Today´s Case Apr 26, 2010 Analysis Explanation
Previous Cases

The Daily Case is selected by Investtech's automated analysis system.

TAYLOR WIMPEY PLC (TW) - Apr 23, 2010. Close: 43.99 Extended analysis
An approximate horizontal trend is broken up. A continued strong development is indicated, and the stock now meets support on possible reactions down towards the trend lines. Has also broken a resistance level and given a positive signal for the long-term trading range. The stock is between the support at pence 37.00 and the resistance at pence 51.00. A definitive break through of one of these levels predicts the new direction. Positive volume balance, i.e. high volume in days of rising prices and low volume in days of falling prices, strengthens the stock in the short term. RSI is overbought, which indicates a potential short-term reaction down. The stock is overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
Total evaluation: Positive candidate

and secondly

from Fridays Investors Inteligence they say we will BUY if prices firm..which they did....

Taylor Wimpey also puts the triangle pattern to test. The climb above 40p is a sign that the bulls are moving in - tentatively, though - due to the Greek situation. Should prices firm further, we buy.

[mknight] 25/4/2010 14:32

I Believe that thanks to the good press shorters will be closing by the shed-load ( 5 percent were short at the last count , whats that 150 million shares ?) that will see us break the 50p mark before we get the trading statement , if that is as good as expected 60p maynot be that far away .

[bordersboy] 25/4/2010 14:14

Cannot see anything stopping a rapid recovery to 200p.


Sounds great but, my opinion is - i'll believe it when i see it.

[the disciple] 25/4/2010 13:46

grax ,,,,,thanks for alerting those on the blinx thread of my clone .

[the disciple] 25/4/2010 13:39

Good find Ecohouse ...

[ecohouse] 25/4/2010 12:20

Two items from todays Sunday Times Business:

1. Page 1 -
Hugh Osmond's investment vehicle Horizon is making a takeover of housebuilder Crest Nicholson. Further consolidation in the sector expected.

2. Page 13 -

Sharewatch - Taylor Wimpey

"Few have had it as hard these past couple of years as housebuilders. Yet it seems the sun is beginning to shine for Taylor Wimpey. Shares in the FTSE 250 construction group gained 15% to close at 44p last week on good housing news from America.

The US Commerce Department reported a 27% increase in March house sales, the biggest monthly rise in nearly half a century. The picture is also looking brighter in Britain. the government said GDP grew 0.2% in the last quarter - not exactly runaway growth, but better than the contrarian in 2008, when Taylor Wimpey chalked up a £1.9 billion loss.

Investors are likely to chafe at CEO Pete Redfern's £1.7m compensation - nearly double the previous year - despite overseeing a £640m loss last year. But the company still looks like it has more to deliver".


I interpret Pete Redfern's bonus payment as an indication he has met his performance targets and TW are now therefore back on track. Cannot see anything stopping a rapid recovery to 200p.

[grax] 25/4/2010 11:48

TD
Yes,the spineless rent boy is busy using that id at blnx.

He's been shafted on TW good and proper having been shorting it to 28p as we all know.That makes the rise all the more enjoyable to know that it is hurting him.