Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[gbh2] 03/8/2020 14:07

Two buys today for me, no brainer imo.

[martyn9] 03/8/2020 14:02

Totally oversold imo, should see a bounce back at some point in the coming weeks.

[masterblaster] 03/8/2020 13:51

I have had enough.sold out.Gone into a gold miner called Greatland Gold (ggp) exciting future

[gbh2] 03/8/2020 12:11

Exactly the reason I want to move on.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/8/2020 11:29

That's one of the reasons I have come to prefer large liquid stocks over the years; I don't stick religiously to it, but I hate being screwed over on small caps.

The so-called professionals have many advantages over private investors - but the single biggest advantage we have in response is the ability to get in or out of a large cap stock in a significant quantity (to our general overall pot) without moving the price. They can't do that.

[gbh2] 03/8/2020 11:17

"and we are free to buy or sell whenever we like"

Not always the case, I've been trying to sell off one of my holdings and I keep getting Sorry try again later, been like that all morning.

[disneydonald] 03/8/2020 10:58

BTW, I’m no particular fan of PSN management over the last couple of years. I think they have found themselves in this position more by good luck and circumstance.

I also hold a large(ish) holding in Wimps and have done so for many years, so I have plenty skin in the game. I also think that Wimps mid term strategy is sound, just unfortunate timing to get caught short of cash given current economic circumstances.

However, if we are taking share prices then we must never forget it is the market that sets the share price, and we are free to buy or sell whenever we like.

[sikhthetech] 03/8/2020 10:47

Different HBs operate in different geographical areas, have differing amounts of cash, some offer more higher or lower end properties..


All HB are being affected by economics, politics, stockmarkets, UK and global...
BJ's 'build build build' won't help...

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/8/2020 10:41

I'm just looking for a different perspective; absolute share pricing is one thing - can be affected by a range of non-TW specific factors. No-one knows what the housing market will do over 12-36 months, but we all have opinions, so the absolute share price could be anything from 100 to 200.

Relative pricing is just a different way of looking at what the price "should" be - why single out one company more than the others for a mark down? And there may well be something in the aggrieved thing, rightly or wrongly. But that is short term sentiment, which is fine.

For me, there is no underlying financial or operational factor in the significant relative performance of the TW. share price over 2 months.

[disneydonald] 03/8/2020 10:29

Imatsu. Yeah, I guess we take differing views. Of course that’s is what makes a market. PSN is clearly the market favourite for builders, high cash balance, optimal exposure to land assets given uncertain economic times and no central London exposure. The best risk averse position. That is all I was pointing out. Of course there are times that that profile is seen as a weakness, in times of boom but at the mo it is seen as defensive.

Wimps issued shares at a low(ish) price, compared to average over last couple years. It does seem a little hasty. The institutions who bought at 145p may feel aggrieved that a couple of weeks later the half year results had lots of exceptionals included, and they may feel they were misled, as Wimps knew they could not discuss detail of results two weeks ahead.

Either way, I suspect Wimps will now need time to get back to generating cash and if we do get a vaccine quickly then at these prices they are a decent mid term bet.

Just have a look at the accounts of a few builders and you will see the reflection in how the market values them.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/8/2020 10:08

My point is (and you disagree, fair enough) that actually there is no reason for the relative underperformance. Not just PSN, but BDEV and BWY - over a 2 month period (or longer) there is nothing that distinguishes TW - except for the rights issue.

The market evidently is trying to see that as a negative - I don't. Minimal dilution and a lot of cash, for me that represents a reason for a premium, not a discount.

As posted on Friday, PSN and TW key metrics are remarkably similar. RE landbank, they are almost the same.

[disneydonald] 03/8/2020 10:02

Imastu. Not sure of your point. Comparable charts just show Wimps the worst performing, and there is a reason for that. As for cash, PSN has over £1bn in cash with no cash call and less exposure to land. Market worrying that Wimps is exposed to large land bank and may risk write down if economy doesn’t pick up quickly. Can’t see Wimps picking up soon until more trading results issued in the autumn. However if recovery happens then a good mid term buy at these prices.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/8/2020 09:54

Ta - it seems you have to pay, so sod it. Links will do.

[gbh2] 03/8/2020 09:47

There's a whole thread dedicated to html editing.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/8/2020 09:41

I don't know if this is encouraging or not (I think it is, and a great opportunity) - and the rights issue is a factor - but for me, they have got this relative pricing wrong, as TW. is the one that is best placed in terms of finances:



and closer in (2 months):





(OT -back in the day, posting html was just img src="" with < and > either side and the link in the "" bit - not any more. Anyone know the current way?

[stewart64] 03/8/2020 09:21

Nationwide house price index up 1.7% month on month, reflecting the stamp duty holiday and frenetic activity I sm seeing. Shades of the Lawson boom/ bust double tax relief deadline. I'm thinking they may be unable to withdraw it in March.

[disneydonald] 03/8/2020 09:20

Jugs, it may come as a surprise but tax should be paid on dividends regardless of whether you take them as shares or cash. Unless your holding company for investments is incorporated overseas; BVI etc.

Also, if you have held Wimps for ten years, it would not have been possible to accumulate four times original holding just by taking a dividend in shares. Also by taking dividends as shares your average share price paid would be well over the current share price, so I guess you are well under water on Wimps at the mo.

I would sack your accountant if I were you.

[gbh2] 03/8/2020 09:01

Managed to get some just under 116p :))

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/8/2020 08:49

OK - helpful to know. Bring it on...

[jock3636] 03/8/2020 08:47

I cannot believe how low this is goingGreat buy opportunity for a 3 year hold

[sux_2bu] 03/8/2020 08:46

Lower gaps first in this climate.If you look at the 4 hourly, you'll see it. The pro traders see it too, hence why its going there.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/8/2020 08:39

?

116p surely?

I must be missing something - when was the 104?

(anyway, there is another one at 180. Oh, and 132...)

[sux_2bu] 03/8/2020 08:31

104p for the gap.It will arrive eventually.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/8/2020 08:10

That gap still needs closing...




Edit - done now.