Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 30/7/2020 10:11

brookbroker, near 1 in 5 properties in the UK is bought without a mortgage.

And having no mortgage(a position many people are in) is a hell of a lot better than being a lifetime renter with 0 security in to old age.


You cannot compare the Dubai property market to the UK.

[folderboy] 30/7/2020 10:10

Indeed - unfortunately I fear that there is a ring of truth midst the crowing

[gbh2] 30/7/2020 10:08

LOL, the manic depressives are lining up to crow today :))

[sikhthetech] 30/7/2020 10:07

EI,

Absolutely and furlough scheme being wound down from this weekend... mortgage payment hols ending in Oct..

I did say Lloyds should fall to 20p-25p...

[sikhthetech] 30/7/2020 10:05

Jug

"Sikh so I was right about dividend albeit next year,"

You were completely wrong... even your sentence above contradicts itself...

you said they have lots of cash to get rid off and will pay a divi for xmas. They don't have lots of cash to get rid off and they expect to resume a divi to be paid next year, which is completely different from they will pay a divi by xmas or next year...

They clearly state that the current situation is not like a normal downturn where they would normally continue with dividends..

Nothing wrong with being optimistic but there's a lot of wishful thinking in your posts which bears no relation to what TW are actually saying...


"In order to conserve cash and increase flexibility at the outset of the pandemic we took the decision to cancel the 2020 final dividend of 3.80 pence per share (c.GBP125 million) which was due to be paid on 15 May 2020, and the planned special dividend payment of 10.99 pence per share (c.GBP360 million), which was due to be paid on 10 July 2020. Although our Ordinary Dividend Policy has been the subject of prudent and comprehensive stress testing against various downside scenarios, including a 20% reduction in prices and a 30% reduction in volumes, and is payable through a normal downturn, the COVID-19 pandemic represents a highly unusual set of circumstances. We expect to resume the payment of an ordinary dividend in 2021 (2020 final) and will review the special dividend in 2021 for payment in 2022."

[sunshine today] 30/7/2020 10:01

Take a quick look at Dubia, prices down 50% in 18 months and absolutely no buyers

They have another 80% to fall over the next ten to twenty years

[bookbroker] 30/7/2020 09:58

Ur right, they are way too high, but I know now that it is going to become so difficult to get a mortgage without 30/40% deposit that it hopefully will bring prices down. Too bad for people already on the ladder, but until the Govt. starts to underwrite 95% of the mortgage that is where we are. Help to Buy was a disaster for first time buyers by simply driving prices higher and higher, and building companies should be held to account for exploiting that.

[essentialinvestor] 30/7/2020 08:59

If anyone is particularly bullish on the next 12 months, read the Lloyds
results, because they are dire.

And they are With the benefits of a very supportive furlough scheme.
The autumn unemployment hit is yet to come.

[millwallfan] 30/7/2020 07:57

Jugears. You glass is clearly overflowing rather than just half full. I share your optimism to some degree, especially with TW , albeit not perhaps to higher highs then before but perhaps at £2. I also read many Atop analysts believe the true book value of Lloyds to be circa 60p and with 120,000 they are my largest long term holding along with TW. More recently I have moved into SRB and Greatland to get a fairly early stake in the gold bull run. Again the true optimists are talking $3,000 plus with one suggesting over $5k and up to $10k , which is probably fantasy land unless any mixture of Covid, Trump, China, North Korea or India “explode’;. However at age 60 pre Brexit and Covid my strategy was to convert everything into cash (eg lloyd’s were 69 and tw £2.30) so really 3 wasted years for me lol.

[jugears] 29/7/2020 21:57

Sikh so I was right about dividend albeit next year, I am being told that house sales are increasing with my orders from Tw ahead of last year ,usually we have confirmed tw orders for 3 months in front at the moment they are 6 months this tells me they are confident selling houses in to the future, taking in to account that the country will be building less houses this year this imo is going to have a shortage impact for several years to come, which in turn will push house prices up, I think that once unemployment peaks it will reduce rapidly as new business emerge & companies re employ staff as they always do after & during a down turn. As you know I talk to many businesses on a daily basis not just suppliers & customers but also people in the organisation I belong too & very few have been impacted by covid 19, one of my suppliers has lost a substantial amount of business in the aircraft industry & retail but has gained equivelnt business in other areas ,its swings & roundabouts really I hear daily of companies taking on additional staff but never mentions anything in the news, in the last 2 weeks I have taken on 6 new members of staff & will need more if I am to keep up with demand which is extremely high at the moment, for the first time in forty years I am am spending 18 hours a day 7 days a week pricing work at buying & tender stage & this is across a much wider sector than we have previously supplied to, this is something I usually do 1 or 2 days a week at the most, whilst this could be short lived at the moment there seems to be no sign of any let up in enquiries, my biggest concern is being able to procure enough material at the moment we have materials on back order until September & now having to order some materials with 6 to 8 weeks notice such is demand! Speak to any small builders, window & kitchen fitters & they will all tell you that they are fully booked this year, I wanted some plumbing work done & was told that they couldn't come out till march next year, my point is that not every sector is struggling far from it,so whilst we may have mass redundancies in some sectors others will be taking on staff so I dont anticipate the mass unemployment that many are predicting, As for Tw I have decided to double my original long term investment here as I see very positive long term prospects with bigger returns than we have seen in the past ,as Tw have stated many smaller builders with less funding have had to drop out of land purchasing to the benefit of the likes of Tw,over time this will reduce the competition for the main large house builders which can only be a benefit long term so I am more than happy to play the waiting game with my investment here & expect to see much larger highs in the share price in the coming years ,if the share price falls in the mean time so be it,I can live with that it's all about patience, opportunities like this for long term investors come along very rarely & whilst these days I only normally invest in a few companies I have now invested in approx 25 companies that I consider have good long term potential with high future returns & who knows I might even be the next Warren Buffett or very broke but then lifes a gamble after all! But more of a certainty if you are prepared to wait & I have all the patience in the world, I doubt for one minute this will be the last crisis in the world & whilst I still have money to invest I will take every opportunity that I can, after all it has never done me any financial harm in the past, that's why I am in the fortunate position I am in now, every cloud has a silver lining you just have to wait & invest in the right companies something I seem to be quite good at, it also helps if you look for the positives in a situation & not unfounded negatives let's see what really happens when furlough ends, will the predictions e right, I very much doubt it in the longer term . It may take a while but we will all return to pubs, Restaurants, Hotels, holidaying & Shopiing when we do employment will resume, demand was there before & it will come back bigger & better in the future.

[martyn9] 29/7/2020 16:15

Sik, i was thinking on the lines of a severe response economically worldwide against china.

[valuehunter1] 29/7/2020 16:14

Sikhthetech - are you a WAR DOG or something? And to be frank with all your doom and gloom I doubt you are a serious investor and just posting negative headlines all day. Get back to your day job of ramping up Totally - a total shambles all around!

TW. are a strong outfit imo with a proven management team who know how to deliver.

[sikhthetech] 29/7/2020 16:06

Martyn9

A war like this?

[martyn9] 29/7/2020 16:04

sik, it might take a war to stop the next strain the chinese develop and wipe half the planet out!!! This is the third virus originating from china in seventeen years so law of averages expect the next fatal one in the space of five years.

[sikhthetech] 29/7/2020 16:04

EI
"There are always uncertainties around"

yes but I've never seen so many uncertainties at the same time..

Brexit, potentially no deal
China US trade wars
China South Sea conflict
China India military tensions.
EU Turkey potential military tensions.
US Presidential Election
Housing market crash
Mortgage payment hols ending
Economic recession
UK Unemployment
Covid 2nd Wave
Global property crash

etc


ALL coming together over the next few months.

When have you ever seen so many uncertainties within such a short period of time...
In my 30+yrs of investing, I've never seen so many come together in such a short space of time...

[essentialinvestor] 29/7/2020 15:57

There are always uncertainties around, that's nothing new.

COVID is, in the sense that large swathes of business were effectively forced
to shut down.

[sikhthetech] 29/7/2020 15:55

Markets hate uncertainty.. and there's a lot of uncertainty around..

Covid is just one of the current concerns...

A war between China and US or EU and Turkey will have a greater impact on stockmarkets than Covid did.

[martyn9] 29/7/2020 15:43

Jonwig, the markets can be so fickle what do investors expect with all the turmoil created by the chinese with covid they passed onto the world.

[jonwig] 29/7/2020 15:24

stewart - the increase in intangible assets (IA) between 2018 and now is I think a conundrum. (Thanks for pointing it out.) But you have to admit it's small change compared to the rest of the balance sheet!

Basically, the only IAs they seem to recognise are brands and software development costs, both of which are fair enough as a rule. We'll have to wait for the full year AR to see if they've been adding anything else.

Personally I'm surprised the market was surprised at these results - you'd have thought they were priced-in!

[stewart64] 29/7/2020 14:56

Cheers IP..

[imastu pidgitaswell] 29/7/2020 14:41

stewart - it's straightforward, nothing has bypassed the income statement; it's the right issue cash.

The easiest way to see what has happened is in the cashflow statement.

Simple version:

...............................2020.......2019

Loss before tax.................(24).......312
Inventories (WIP)..............(424)......(240)
Right issue receipts............510..........0
Dividends.........................0.......(124)
Tax + work cap etc..............(91)......(201)

Change...........................(29).....(253)


Cash at start...................630........734
Change..........................(29)......(253)
Cash at End.....................601........481

[essentialinvestor] 29/7/2020 14:37

JUG, we are already in recession, it may be protracted, it may not be.

As mentioned last week, you are in a much better position to offer an industry insight. My own take is the coming unemployment hit will be too significant for a V shaped recovery.

What we look to have seen recently is some pent up demand, caused by the lockdown,
which will shortly have washed through the economy. May be wrong on this, best to stay open minded, however that's how it looks to me.

The share price is another matter, cant call that as no crystal ball here.

(Remember the furlough scheme has stopped a lot of job losses to this point).

[stewart64] 29/7/2020 14:35

Amazing how many FTSE 100 firms contrive huge profits as the balance sheet (propped up by worthless intangibles) dereriorates and the Market loves them. TW has managed an increase in tangible assets per share whilst losing money apparently. The link between the profit and loss account and the balance sheet got lost somewhere along the way in this new age of accountancy. I guess gaining assets whilst losing money is a new twist. (eg.. 5-2 =6)