Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 29/7/2020 14:32

Jugears,

Your order books don't reflect what TW are saying..

The fact you are busy bears no resemblance to how many people will lost their jobs over the next few months...
Also if millions lose their jobs, in whatever sector, then that has a bearing on mortgage affordability and house prices...

It wasn't that long ago you said that TW staff have told you that TW have lots of cash to get rid off and there will be dividend for Xmas..

[sikhthetech] 29/7/2020 14:30

EI,

"a lot depends on whether we are facing further lockdowns in to autumn/winter"

Not just Covid. It's not the only potential economic/political problem..

China is a bigger threat to UK economy/stock market than Covid.

Brexit, looks increasing likely there will be a no deal brexit.

[jugears] 29/7/2020 14:29

esential, I have to disagree, we do not know there will be a recession & protracted at that & there is no clarity yet that there will be a high unemployment rate. I will echo what one of my large suppliers told me today & that is Covid 19 has been the best thing that has happened to my company,just because we here about leisure & the airline industry on a daily basis the rest of the countries industry are getting back to normality & very quickly, but we don't have to make a song & dance about it we just quietly get on with it, I am not saying there wont be a bit of a down turn but I don't think for one minute we are heading for a prolong protraction,of course there will be some unemployment short term whilst the economy recovers, At the moment it is to early to make any speculations for at least 3-6 months, My order book is full to capacity until December with orders stretching into March or April & there is no shortage of tender enquiries for next year & beyond, which are up 70% on last year, I think when people here the word recession you automatically think it will effect everyone & it doesn't many sectors still prosper & people still sell houses, TBF I think Tw. performed very well during the last recession & will do during the next if we have one.

[essentialinvestor] 29/7/2020 14:00

Dont want to mention the C word again, but a lot depends on whether we
are facing further lockdowns in to autumn/winter.

As mentioned previously there is a significant unemployment hit coming,
may this is already in the price.

However, whether you are long, short or sitting on the fence,
what we do know is we are facing a recession and probably a protracted one.

Luck to those holding.

[abergele] 29/7/2020 13:59

Re.406,stotheteeth,
''I think we'll see another Stock market crash''
So you hold not a share on the stock market at all then?
That's the impression you give me,so why spend the day here,there'many hundreds that you have to visit,why stay just here?
You are just giving it one hell of a downside,so you can find a bottom I suspect.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 29/7/2020 12:49

Expecting or predicting?Mea culpa?

[1sjh] 29/7/2020 12:06

When you check the chat for TW info and ppl talking about Spain.....?

[sikhthetech] 29/7/2020 11:20

Imastu

"You don't think the bad news is in the price - fair enough. Some of us do. None of us can prove it. Only more time will tell."



The H1 results is proof, so far. 170p to 120p from update based on company newsflow/events...


I think there's more downside risk given the economic/political uncertainty over the next few months...
I'm expecting another stock market crash...

[imastu pidgitaswell] 29/7/2020 10:43

sikh, I can give you ten or twenty different theoretical possibilities of reasons that they could have problems, up to and including asteroid strikes.

Potential lockdowns in Spain isn't up there on the list of things they should be concerned about - they had a lockdown in Spain (and in the UK) and this is where we are. And to be fair you said "but the fact it still costing money". Note the tense - current, not future.

I'm not sure we're getting anywhere beyond 'it might'. Maybe I'll leave it there.

Good point in 415.

Mind the gap (at 132 as well as 117)...

[sikhthetech] 29/7/2020 10:40

imastu

"It is profitable. "

Currently... I think a Spanish lockdown, 2nd wave would have an impact ..

[disneydonald] 29/7/2020 10:39

The Spanish business has returned a small profit first half ...

Also, because all work stopped for shutdown in UK they have been unable to move all the expenses for the part finished units into the balance sheet (as WIP), and have to retain those expenses on the income statement, which has the effect of reducing profit. The second half will better reflect the normal relationship between expenses and WIP so the profit figure will accelerate as more normal (shorter) build to sale period returns.

However, I suspect there is no rush to buy today. I would see how things settle and what view the market takes. IMHO

[imastu pidgitaswell] 29/7/2020 10:34

sikh - it's not. It is profitable. See previous post and note 3 in the financial statements.

[ftir1] 29/7/2020 10:33

TW. chart looks nasty. This is going much much lower, get out while you can!

STRONG SELL

[sikhthetech] 29/7/2020 10:31

imastu,
It's not the size of the Spanish business but the fact it still costing money...


Disney,
"I reckon there is more risk to the downside than upside in the next six months"


exactly, that's been my point all along...

[disneydonald] 29/7/2020 10:25

Sikh. The answer to your question re Spain is in the half year update. Seems you don't read what is provided and just form your opinions without any meaningful or accurate substance.

For those who are not listening to the call, PR is unusually hesitant when presenting and answering questions. He seems to be wriggling on some key questions, and wants to talk about the land position rather than trading conditions. All in all I suspect that the analysts will take a glass half full from this performance. Hard to see any real driver to push the the share price forward this year, given the ever present COVID risks and potential for poor news flow. I reckon there is more risk to the downside than upside in the next six months, however I reaffirm my view that the balance sheet is strong enough to weather the short term. In the mid term they will prove to be a solid investment.

They have confirmed that delivering units is the constraint for this year, and so they can't out perform beyond that. Of course my interpretation.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 29/7/2020 10:25

Nah, he's OK. The morons (sell, it's going down) I won't bother with - never get anything worthwhile out of it.

Although that last post of his is veering towards the 'sell, it's going down' type...

:-)

[gbh2] 29/7/2020 10:25

Yep nothing worse than a Big Loser that cannot afford to shoulder a loss!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 29/7/2020 10:24

Well it's all risk:reward isn't it? You pays your money...

Certainly I would not have been here during the first 6 months, not even for the rise from the lows in April - was too busy with everything in precious metals miners. But we now have more information (certainty? not an absolute, never can be), TW have over a billion more cash than they would have had from dividends not paid and the rights issue cash.

Risk:reward again - prices of PM miners and future prospects versus prices say here. For me, there are no absolutes - it is not a case of this is certain to rise / that is certain to go down - just a continual adjustment of size and relative assessment. It's what they call a market.

[aldoeldo] 29/7/2020 10:22

imastu, don't get into arguments with sikh-the-monky

he is just trying to rub salt into wound on a bloody day

[sikhthetech] 29/7/2020 10:18

In terms of where we stand, the same points have been made since the lockdown and updates... the current situation is where I thought we would be...

I've been consistent in my views all along...


I've never seen a situation where so many economic/political events come together in such a short space of time, ie within the next 6 months... Brexit, potential military conflicts, Covid, US Presidential election etc

There's still a lot of uncertainty to go over the next few months and the markets hate uncertainty...

I think we'll see another stock market crash...

[imastu pidgitaswell] 29/7/2020 10:14

The Spanish business is tiny and irrelevant. They tried to offload it earlier in the century(!) but failed.

They just let it limp along and run it for peanut profits - which it makes and continues to make. Read the half year numbers:

"We completed 58 homes in the first half of 2020 (H1 2019: 109) at an average selling price of EUR407k (H1 2019: EUR434k), with prices reflecting mix impacts. Gross margin increased to 27.0% ( H1 2019: 25.3%) . The business delivered an operating profit of GBP3.5 million for the first half of 2020 (H1 2019: GBP8.1 million), reflecting the lower completions, and an operating profit margin of 17.2% (H1 2019: 19.7%)."


RE position and where they needed to be - how could/would they have been stronger? Half a billion net cash and access to a further half a billion debt facility, now that they are up and trading again? Sales order pipeline up 15% on the same period last year?

[sikhthetech] 29/7/2020 10:09

imastu,

It's early days.... They needed to be in a stronger position at this point...

agree it's whether they can afford to pay a dividend....


Spain is experiencing signs of a 2nd wave and there are localised lockdowns in place.

The requirement to quarantine after visiting Spain has been re-imposed.

How is their Spanish business doing? Will there be fewer ex-pats viewing/buying in Spain?

[gbh2] 29/7/2020 10:02

Always someone that'll TRY to impose their thinking on the remainder of the Thread!

[hernando2] 29/7/2020 09:42

Thats a good post Imastu

[imastu pidgitaswell] 29/7/2020 09:40

The dividend doesn't matter - their ability to afford to pay a dividend, i.e. their cash generation, does. Any idiot can pay a dividend, the issue is whether they should.


Re 396 - well yes, any business that doesn't sell is going to have a problem, methinks. See every other consumer business across the country and the world. So will they sell houses ever again, at what volumes and at what price is the question. Prices, as they say, are unchanged - and the wider market says the same. For now. In the future - we will have to see; you don't know and neither do I. Volumes - their numbers and reports on the ground, which again for now seem very positive is the best info you can get.

Re "If they had not cancelled the divi and special divi (both about £500m) then they would have had serious cash problem..." - well they did and they haven't. Isn't that what management is supposed to do - manage? They would of course (and did) have recourse to the rolling cash facility of another £500m - which they drew down but have now repaid. Again, planning for the worst, as they should.

You don't think the bad news is in the price - fair enough. Some of us do. None of us can prove it. Only more time will tell.