Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[waikenchan] 31/7/2020 20:00

@ #470. Yes it is interesting. Most of the other house builder PSN, BKG are with 15-20% of pre shutdown valuations.

However other house builder such as vty, bdev, rdw are 20%-30% down, or even more such as TW (although they just had a share issue no so long ago).

They all seem well capitalised, good profit margins, and other valuation metrics. Maybe its area where they have there developments? For example BKG have their developments in the south east, so maybe are more valuable?

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2020 19:13

If you're taking a longer term view should be fine.
UK COVID numbers are increasing again, so the next 2/3 months
may largely depend on how restrictive any regional lockdowns are
in to autumn.

[stevieweebie2] 31/7/2020 18:55

Yawn, is this ten Bob yet? Oh I see it's well on it's way now. It's been a little more persistent than I have it credit for but ten bob cometh for this one. Prob be the spring now when it dawns on even the biggest bull that it's going to be a washout.

[jugears] 31/7/2020 18:44

Tw stock is heavily manipulated as you will see when the share quickly recover to 1.70.

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2020 17:45

Margins, I'm guessing, without checking.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 31/7/2020 16:56

Apropo of not a lot, can anyone explain the apparent disparity in valuation between PSN and TW. ?

Looking at numbers in most recent results, pre-covid, whether it is earnings per share, net assets per share, net cash per share, whatever, PSN is on a significant valuation premium to TW., almost double in most cases.

Put another way, PSN is almost twice the market cap, but in terms of metrics - revenue, profits, net cash, net assets, they are very similar.

There is (presumably) a primary reason for this - anyone aware?

[jugears] 30/7/2020 17:53

Sikh what sectors are you talking about? my company has more than fully recovered & don't see any signs of this changing, I can only give opinions based on what is happening day to day in real life & in my life, I supply to about 20 different sectors, retail, leisure, schools, hospitals, doctors surgeries, construction, building, house building, Boats, pubs, restaurants to name but a few, sales to HB's & Construction have surpassed last year already & whilst some sectors are down we have had a marked increase in all of our sectors since the end of May & now increasing on a weekly basis. Its very easy to read to much into press reports & figures as most are based on what happened during lock down & that was nearly 2 months ago, The world has awoken since then, The country has started moving again but there is unlikely to be any new data of relevance for at least 2 months to prove things either way so we will all just have to wait & see, I note from Tw report that they paid contractors up front payments to ensure they were retained & able to work after lock down, I wonder how much this has contributed to there loss as it is unlikely that the retention of money from future payments to repay this loan back will have been accounted for in the first half accounts, could be looking at upwards of 100 million of forgot income here, how good would this look added to the final half years turnover? sounds to me that the directors are being to pessimistic with there end of year predictions,
It wouldn't surprise me to see some directors buy prior to the next results!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 30/7/2020 17:26

Good day to play golf - thought that 117 gap would go when I set off earlier...

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Canaccord Genuity upgraded their recommendation for shares of Taylor Wimpey from 'hold' to 'buy' following recent share price falls despite the group's "strong" balance sheet.
In a research note sent to clients, analyst Aynsley Lammin also said that the key issue for the homebuilder were the existing macroeconomic risks and the outlook for home sales and prices in 2021.

Lammin said recent trends were "encouraging" although the test of rising unemployment "had yet to be fully felt".

His estimates called for delivery volumes to run at 80% of 2019 levels next year with pricing broadly holding up.

He also expected that special dividends would resume in 2022 with a final payout for 2020 also on the cards, although he expected the latter to be paid in 2021.

Therefore, he said "the investment case reverts to one of growth combined with attractive capital returns."

Lammin did however trim his target price on the shares from 165.0p to 160.0p.

"The balance sheet is in good shape post the recent equity raise and the Group has now successfully reopened all sites and is seeing good demand (a price increase of +1% was even put through in July)," he said.

"Given the H1 result, we now expect lower profits for the full year, but the pattern for recovery and forecasts for 2021 remain broadly as expected."

[sikhthetech] 30/7/2020 16:48

US economy shrank by 32.9% during Q2...

Coronavirus: US economy sees sharpest contraction in decades

[sikhthetech] 30/7/2020 16:47

Jug,

What happened to the V shape recovery you were predicting?

[jugears] 30/7/2020 16:28

Riley, the first signs of any good news & these will be back to 1.70 very quickly, you can clearly see that the down trend is fast running out of steam.

[sikhthetech] 30/7/2020 13:00

Markets hate uncertainty... and currently there's too much uncertainty around...

Even the TW BoD are being cautious because of uncertainty...

[essentialinvestor] 30/7/2020 11:25

What the market is concerned about, at least short term, is will the economy largely shut down again, in to autumn/winter.

[sunshine today] 30/7/2020 10:45

Yep I understand PE are looking here to purchase , be it at 10P

Lol

[sunshine today] 30/7/2020 10:40

Phoney War'


is the name given to the period of time in World War Two from September 1939 to April 1940 when, after the blitzkrieg attack on Poland in September 1939, seemingly nothing happened.

Then look what happened.!

[death by donut] 30/7/2020 10:37

Well a +ve view from the ground .New TW site we started post covid has sold 10 plots already.BDEV site also now running at what feels like full tilt tbh.Also another new 10 yr site we got is up and running , show homes done and plots going up with what feels like normal pace.No idea how long it will last , but all seems relatively normal.South westI don't holdDbD

[gbh2] 30/7/2020 10:35

Jugs, I don't see any sense in reading constant negative comments from disgruntled losers.

Why on Earth would I be on this thread if I wasn't an Investor with my mind already made up as to whether I have a good or bad investment.

Everything else is just chat on a rainy day, wish you a good day :))

[sikhthetech] 30/7/2020 10:25

Sunshine/EI,

Yes you can look at Dubai property prices...I've mentioned Dubai, China and Indian property bubble before.

Property price bubble in Dubai, India and China were my reasons for expecting a property and stock market crash here..

Foreign investors drive prices higher.. Once they start to sell down, the bubble bursts globally, whether it's property or shares..

[jugears] 30/7/2020 10:19

gbh2 to much doom & gloom on here ,lets see where we are at the end of the year bearing in mind that a lot of sales were not covered in yesterdays report & IMO it is far to early to predict where the country is heading for at least the next 3-6 months,
I have noticed that sikh is always saying I did say this & did say that, nothing goes up in a straight line & with everyone predicting the worst nothing is going to move upwards until we have a much clearer picture but I prefer to be optimistic & nothing is ever as bad as predicted in my book.
Cloudy today why have you changed your user name again ?

[inaminute] 30/7/2020 10:13

What planet do you live on? You are so jealous you are blinkered. With a lot of luck when you grow up you might be able afford one.

[sunshine today] 30/7/2020 10:12

Falling like a brick