Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[baracuda2] 18/3/2020 07:57

Why worry about shares then 1NHS. If it's the end of civilisation why you bothering posting here, you should be out panic buying just like the other idiots like you

[1 nhs] 18/3/2020 04:03

Your in dreamland.

Food is running out in the U.K. right now, as supply chains dry up around the world.

You have absolutely no idea how bad this is , even though, it’s in your face.

As soon as our cities breakdown, your shares are worth zero .

Think global

[ekuuleus] 18/3/2020 01:30

good write up steeplejack.

It's also worth noting the stock market prints it's own money in a bull market and burns it with the bear.

[steeplejack] 17/3/2020 23:44

I agree with all that but not the manipulation bit.

Marketmakers nowadays are little more than facilitators.They like nothing better than buying a stock and selling straight away for a fraction of a penny and going to bed with a square book ie no position whatsoever.They are not the muggers of the private client albeit they want to make money.When there are frenetic markets like now however,their behaviour does contribute to volatility in the sense that they do not want to be the pigeon in the shooting gallery.Why would they wish to buy a whole load of Taylor W. at 2 quid when a wave of sellers (and absence of buyers)suggests the stock will fall lower.They are not there to assess the investment case in a particular stock.One marketmaker will be making a book in a whole host of building stocks,he might be making a market in engineering or retail stocks too!Thus his approach is not always calculated as such,more reactive.


Now let’s look at the other side of the equation.You are a private client who picks his own stocks.Now that’s pretty old fashioned.As you might have noted from the financial press,they bang on about buying units in Terry Smiths fund or buying investment trusts even more than buying specific companies nowadays.There’;s a reason for this,masses of people working for financial firms are no longer allowed to buy specific stocks like you and I,without permission.They are restricted by their compliance departments.Whats more,the relatives of the people working for those City institutions (associated persons)are also not allowed to buy or sell specific stocks without permission from the compliance department!So they are more than likely to buy units in unit trusts,investment trusts,exchange traded funds,simply because it’s easier,less complicated.Now Let’s fast forward.Here they are with all these holdings in unit trusts etc and they suddenly see the market falling.They don’t have the flexibility that you and I have to simply sell at a moments notice.They might decide to sell some of their unit trust holdings etc but invariably they’ll be some time delay.The fund manager receives redemption instructions and is then compelled to sell to raise cash to fulfil the redemption instruction.The fund manager in this situation might well sell the most recent best performer in his fund,he might just top slice some of his larger holdings but sell he must.Of course,in this situation it’s an open secret to everyone in the city that fund managers are forced sellers of stock.The marketmakers don’t want to get stuffed so they start dropping the price until they find a level where some buyers emerge.They simply reflect the market dynamics,it’s not a conspiracy.So as the MMs drop the price,all sorts come out of the woodwork trying to rationalise a stock price collapse but in truth it’s simply more sellers than buyers.There might be some credible reason for the falls but sometimes it feels like lemmings throwing themselves off a cliff because the selling appears indiscriminate as you know.

The current market is obviously a real puzzle because we don’t know when this virus will be contained.It’s a massive imponderable and no one knows.So,for now,cyclicals will be bounced hither and thither and those exposed to those cyclicals ie financials will be volatile too.The worry is that the US market has been in a raging bull market for years.Its a bull period that hasn’t been enjoyed by the UK market.Nonetheless,as the US retraces from giddy heights,the UK will inevitably be dragged down with it to seriously oversold levels.Brexit uncertainty won’t help.Unfortunately,when you throw in all the market dynamics and a heavy dose of greed and fear,the market could be mistaken for a casino.When it comes to stockmarket investment,I’d settle for a barrowload of luck before the supposed skills of a regiment of investment analysts.

[peteret] 17/3/2020 23:30

Good post.I totally agree. Bought some more at 1.17Will buy more if sub 1.10 again. Over the years TW. Has been my most successful traded share.

[spcecks] 17/3/2020 23:20

Also happy to sit and wait on the share price recovery as it will ....and happy buying the dips.

[jugears] 17/3/2020 22:12

Steeple, A lot of companies that go bump will be blaming CV when in reality would have anyway, Its a shame a lot of companies haven't learn't anything from the financial crisis & still run very close to the wind. Hopefully lessons will be learnt this time.I do think this will be a nail in the coffin for the high street but again this has been doomed for a long time, Councils fail to realize that people want to park outside a shop & not park half a mile away!Somebody commented earlier about restaurants closing but many have been struggling for a long time because there are just to many but again it will be blamed on cv. As for the housing market It usually goes in 10 year cycles so if I can pick up cheep shares now I don't mind waiting for the next upward cycle. This year was never going to be easy with Brexit. Some people seem to think TW shares fell to 4p due to the financial crisis but they didn't Wimpey as they were then Known were doing quite well & making a profit, There big mistake was paying way over the odds for Taylor Woodrow & ending up with a debt of 1 billion pounds which Tw managed to pay off within several years(this was whilst the country was still in recession which I think is a huge achievement), As they now have more land & little debt They are a much stronger company & with a substantial part of there workforce being subcontract(unlike before the financial crisis) Could reduce over heads substantially overnight if required.Despite the world wide pannick & some posters on here's predictions there is only one way land & house prices will be going in this country long term & that is up, You only have to look at history to see this. I will be laughing next year when Tw are back over £2 (Having Doubled my investments)& there will be all those investors on here that watched the share price fall but didn't have the balls to buy back in & then sat back & watched the share price continuing to rise in the hope it would fall again because they still haven't bought back in but it won't & we all know that deep down because we have seen it so many times before,What ever the state of the economy Tw are a heavily manipulated share & when the time is wright & only when its wright the price will be manipulated back up, As private investors this is out of our hands all we can do is sit & wait & be patient, Something that I am very good at.

[gbh2] 17/3/2020 21:22

"strongest sectors were Healthcare and biotech" hardly surprising given the cash that's going to be thrown into those fields of enterprise in the next 6 to 12 months.

[steeplejack] 17/3/2020 20:47

Good close on Wall Street.The market tested the support level on the S&P 500 at 2350 but immediately bounced and is now back to its comfort level above 2500.

The strongest sectors were Healthcare and biotech and large cap leaders like Apple and Amazon ,a general biase towards tech.Not unexpectedly,there was a limited appetite for cyclicals so I’d be surprised if builders surged tomorrow but it’s anybody’s guess.Of course,if the now expected “U” shaped recession is not too prolonged in duration,it’ll be the cyclicals (TW included)who will see the sharpest recovery.Heavyweight pharmaceuticals like AstraZeneca and favourites like Halma,are not much more than 10% off year highs.It really is too late to sell the HB sector.TW ,hitting 108p today was nearer to zero than the years all time high some 130p higher which it hit only a month ago.Would seem to discount a very grim outlook.

Curtains for laura Ashley......hardly unexpected.

[gbh2] 17/3/2020 19:33

The last Theory I read is that China dumped this on the World because it didn't like the Deal they singed with the USA!

It's happened, it's happening all we PIs can do is ride the storm or jump the boat we could end being screwed with either option, I guess that's why the old adage regarding not risking anything you cannot afford to lose is still around today.

My day couldn't be any worse after finding out that the Government now class being over 70 as "Underlying Heath Condition" regardless of how fit I am!

[sikhthetech] 17/3/2020 19:20

Jug,

"These are companies that were in trouble long before any of this broke, Things may get tough but the fittest survive,"

I think you've misunderstood what is going on....
The country is being shut down for weeks... That's a huge loss to the economy and companies...

Those few weeks could be 10,20, 30% of their annual turnover but it's enough to send even the fittest companies to the wall..

Imagine you run a successful restaurant chain and no customers turn up for 2-3months!!

A lot of people book their summer holidays during Feb-March - that's a major loss to airlines, hotels etc..

House viewings pick up in the spring/summer... all those house viewings cancelled... With little activity in the housing sector, house prices will fall...

Now imagine you're a housebuilder with no housing activity and all you see are house prices collapsing...
The house building chain, from estate agents to brickmakers, labourers, roofers, scaffolders to salespersons, could fall apart.

Now if banks slow or stop mortgage lending due to fears over the economy, where will house buyers find money to buy homes???



"like TW are planning a head to keep production going."

They could end up with ghost developments like they did after the last financial crisis..

[backdoorbill] 17/3/2020 19:17

mich.
China stats are somewhat "on their side"
GL
Chas

[backdoorbill] 17/3/2020 19:01

you know best bud..............

Good luck

Chas

[michaelbinary] 17/3/2020 18:23

I cant get my head around this nonsense.
"The modelling projected that if the UK did nothing, 81% of people would be infected and 510,000 would die from coronavirus by August."

"The mitigation strategy is better, but would still result in about 250,000 deaths and completely overwhelm intensive care in the NHS."

So,
China has had the virus since the begining, they now have the growth curve under control. With 1.5 billion people they have had abount 80,000 cases with 3226 deaths.
Even allowing for the reported chinese numbers to be a little bit creative, they are 3 months further into the curve than Europe, so why havent they got 1 million dead by now and 500 million people infected etc ?.

[steeplejack] 17/3/2020 17:57

BERKELEY have postponed the signalled special dividend and this was announced on 12th March."Proposed GBP455 million increase in Shareholder Returns to be postponed until there is greater clarity of operational impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on UK economic activity -- Reaffirmed commitment to enhanced Shareholder Returns -- Revert to the original Shareholder Returns programme with announcement of a GBP125 million dividend to be paid on 31 March 2020 and commitment to next GBP140 million of Shareholder Returns to be paid by 30 September 2020"

[backdoorbill] 17/3/2020 17:47

This is going to change the world as we know it now.

You sit at home without a job, thinking..... I know lets buy a new house, but i have no money.....so I cant...., or you have a job thinking why dont we sell and buy a new house.

Who`s going to buy your house?

Wait to see how bad it gets.... 18 months at least of turmoil.... at the very best......

This will take years to recover.... YEARS!!!!

Chas

[wfl1970] 17/3/2020 17:35

Government bailout, an indication of how bad things are going to get... If not bad enough already.

[jugears] 17/3/2020 17:25

Doyden, Theres an article in construction enquirer web site, last week i think

[1 nhs] 17/3/2020 17:06

Land bank to take a 3/4 asset hit.

[doyden] 17/3/2020 17:00

Could you provide a link to this announcement that Berkeley have suspended their dividends please?I can only find recent news articles where they have announced the suspension of the planned 'increase' to the dividend.Thanks.

[michaelbinary] 17/3/2020 16:59

shame. I would buy a lot at 4p this time around :-)

[jugears] 17/3/2020 16:37

michaelbinary they only went to 4p because they got in to debt buying Taylor Woodrow for an overly inflated price, It may surprise but if you remember didn't they increase there profits year on year from the word go & manage to pay a 1 billion pound debt off, This is a totally different company now & could easily manage a down turn. These are different times & not saying the government should bail anyone out but would think that keeping the housing market afloat will be has high a priority as say retail. We might all get ill but we will still need houses whether its now or 18 months time. I would be more concerned about finding a garage that doesn't have ques a mile long.

[disneydonald] 17/3/2020 16:29

The best support the Government can give for builders is to temporarily remove stamp duty on houses, and give a boost to offset the inevitable decline due to virus. As for the special I would expect that it will be withdrawn (but still pay the normal), compensating for the inevitable reduction in revenues during spring selling season.

Wimps don't want to be borrowing just to pay a special in the summer. Special should only come out of excess cash which the business doesn't need, and cash flows will be lower in first half. Also, I am sure they will ease back on buying land unless contracted with no deferral option, at least for a while.

Personally, I think that we are in danger of causing more damage to the economy than necessary with some of these hastily announced measures (advised not to go to pubs and restaurants etc, yet schools and normal shopping and work places still open ? ). The cure seems worse than the illness.

Just back from the US, and all shops, restaurants, bars, hotels etc have extra visible cleaning staff wiping down all areas, tables, lifts, bar tops etc. The government should mandate that here, but don't seem to be interested in basic none headline grabbing initiatives.