Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[eeza] 12/3/2020 10:15

Luckily it's Friday the 13th tomorrow !!

[jugears] 12/3/2020 10:13

Steeplejack ,I agree with that.Its knowing when to buy, I still think we could test 1.30 here before a recovery but happy to keep buying on the way down.If anything I think we could see house sales increase now that interest rates have dropped, anyone buying now with a fixed rate cant really go far wrong. My Daughter asked what she should do with her deposit for a house that she Hope's to buy in a couple of years, I told her she is young enough to take a gamble & put it all in the stock market & in 2 years time she may have enough to buy the house outright.

[dr_smith] 12/3/2020 10:12

gbh2:
>Was their a mention of altering the Land Bank Rules in yesterday's Budget?
I saw mention of landbanks in threads..herewego..
Wad collector on Vistry thread:


"Guess that the budget suggestion of tightening up landbank storage rules didn't go down here well with the share price today."

I've not seen anything apart from that, but there are already rules and I believe gov would be getting onto dangerous ground to interfere with "ongoing builders"* who take common sense measure to avoid boom and bust and give themselves resilience.

* As distinct from co's buying land and holding solely for profit with no evidence of ongoing building.

Ask Wad for his source.

IMO
Dave

[steeplejack] 12/3/2020 10:02

This has a feel of capitulation today exacerbated by redemption requests flowing in.Fund managers are compelled to sell and there's a indiscriminate blanket fall in prices.This feels more like a 1987 or the fall in prices after 9/11 than 2008.That actually provides an element of solace.Its worth focusing on China.If China can continue to see a continuing fall in the incidence of the virus that could serve as a reassuring template for other nations.I still feel we could fall to 5000 which might be tomorrow's close at this rate.Even now with the FTSE some 2000 points down in a fortnight,there's a really strong emotional pull just to sell and get the hell out.That primeval fear generally tells you that it's very nearly time to buy.

[doyden] 12/3/2020 10:01

Jug, Berkeley have only temporarily suspended the planned increase to the dividend, not the actual dividend itself.They have £1 billion cash in the bank.

[spcecks] 12/3/2020 09:48

JUGERS I totally agree with what you say.

[jugears] 12/3/2020 09:45

We may not get a dividend if we follow Berekley group, theres has been suspended

[battue2] 12/3/2020 09:16

Gbh2 That's the trading gaps closed then.Im still sitting on my hands here.I see no point in worrying about specials and divis when daily swings are greater than the total payment for the year.GL

[jugears] 12/3/2020 09:00

Back to 1.30,I can live with that for now. WFL mock me all you like your the last person I would take advise from I'm sitting here rubbing my hands this fall in share price price is great news for me & as we all know it wont last long.

[wfl1970] 12/3/2020 08:46

Oh it was before...it usually happens during a rising share price
It's not unreasonable to say most things made in China these days.

[gbh2] 12/3/2020 08:31

Was the before or after China released a new novel & virulent virus on the World?

[wfl1970] 12/3/2020 08:25

I don't know... but there were mentions of TW being £3 by year end...
Some folks never learn.

[gbh2] 12/3/2020 08:22

Was their a mention of altering the Land Bank Rules in yesterday's Budget?

[jugears] 11/3/2020 20:33

gbh Good look with gfrd tomorrow, never been a great fan of Galliford, although I do have to thank them for my companies success as they were the first large customer I took on after taking over the family business, Back then they were called Wincott Galliford & based just up the road from us in Wolvey,But during the eighties early nineties companies wanted 90 days credit & I wasn't prepared to give them there terms so after 10 very good years we parted, not long after a lot of people left & took our name with them & still work for many of the companies now

[gbh2] 11/3/2020 19:46

"The question I'd like to ask is at what point will bad news be in the price..."

That's the unknown that may need to be based on a shut down of the whole damned country and why my cash may be safer under the bed until the future is clearer.

OK a bit of a flippant reply, I'm looking forward to tomorrows results and a first impression of what the future of GFRD may hold in store.

Also tomorrow, as the TW divi is going to be totally obliterated by capital loss, atm my inclination is to move my cash into Lloyds who have a +7% due ex divi date in a few weeks, see what tomorrow brings.

[sikhthetech] 11/3/2020 19:20

Once Brexit is truly over I'd expect the UK will be even more dependent on US trading and therefore movements in US markets at all levels..

gbh, not sure about selling, markets are cyclical so will eventually recover.... The question I'd like to ask is at what point will bad news be in the price...

[steeplejack] 11/3/2020 19:10

The US market has been walking on water of late but I think it unlikely that the UK market will divorce itself from US influence anytime soon.


The FTSE 100 consists of international,heavy overseas earning,corporations.Thus there is a tendency for the FTSE (unlike the more domestically orientated FT250) to slavishly follow the US lead.There is one proviso,of course,and that’s currency.Sterling has been in the doldrums for years and this puts overseas investors off from investing in the UK and partly explains the UKs relative underperformance of the US.Yet,more than that,the UK simple doesn’t have the likes of Apple,Amazon,Thermal Scientific,Google,Netflix,Nividia etc to attract investors.The FTSE is 15% lower than twenty years ago.Compared with the S&P 500,returns have been pitiful.UK stock selection has been critical if one is to turn a profit.In the same time as some household names in the US have rocketed,stocks in the UK like Glaxo are a quarter off all times high hit back in 1999.Many of the UK banks are but 10% of the level they were before the 2008 crash while the likes of a Goldman Sachs have fully recovered and more.The UK has been left to nurture British American Tobacco over the last twenty years (long the best performer of the heavyweights with dividends reinvested)but even that company has now lost its lustre.Sadly,I don’t think things are going to change.The AIM market often attracts the unwary punter who desperately seeks something with growth potential and ends up being attracted to crooked companies like Quindell and Globo.

All that said,Jugs,you have been in the right UK sector at the right time.Relatively,to have a holding in a high yielding company like Taylor Wimpey,Bellway etc has been an excellent strategy and has served you well.Yet if you had bought a sterling denominated UK equity tracker twenty years ago,you would have been stuffed.All the more so given sterling’s depreciation.If you’re bought a dollar denominated US equity tracker,you’d be in clover.

[eeza] 11/3/2020 18:38

Yanks going for it atm - off 1400 points.

Double up on the nappies tomorrow.

[eeza] 11/3/2020 18:36

The UK market is in thrall to the US. British insti's are eunuchs.
If the Dow goes up 1000 points, the FTSE is filling its nappy at open next day because the yanks usually have the Futures red - like today. Weak blue open for the FTSE then downhill all the way.
Over the past 20yrs or so the FTSE has lost ground against the US index and now is less than 25% of the nom price. That's because the FTSE goes down a greater %age than the US and goes up a lesser %age than the US.

[jugears] 11/3/2020 18:12

Steeple, The American markets have been way over valued & rose rapidly & was very overdue a correction.IMO the same can not be said for the uk market which was only starting to recover ground of 10 years ago, what ever happens short term the uk market has plenty of scope to push 9000 in the near future, for now batten down the hatches & enjoy the ride.

[jugears] 11/3/2020 17:09

TJ I used to worry when the markets went down substantially but quickly noticed the stock market nowadays works the same continuous pattern & falling is not bad it's good for investing. Look at the markets over the last 60 years they have always recovered, some times it takes a little longer but they always do & always will, it may take a good few years but I am sure one day when these are trading in the £10 plus range you will look back & find it hard to believe they were less tha £2.00. once upon a time. I bought Next for 56p.in the 80s, I would have laughed if some one had said to me that one day they would be worth £85.00 & always regretted selling them for £7-8 but that was my nieve days & have learnt a lot since then & that is never ever underestimate the stock market.

[steeplejack] 11/3/2020 17:05

Horrid markets.Wall Street commentators seem to feel that the S&P could fall to 2500 without too much difficulty.That's a further fall of around 10% from current levels.However,I think it's quite possible that the index will lose all the gains of 2019 and hit the lows last seen in Dec 2018 when the market was around 2350.That level was as low as the S&P had been since June 2017.Of course its all total speculation given that we simply don't know how COVID 19 is going to pan out.Given the UK and DAX will slavishly follow the US,it seems possible that the UK could fall to around 5000.That might sound bad but we've already fallen around 1700 points.It's time to start calculating where we might start bottoming out.