Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[smartie6] 15/3/2020 10:56

Is it possible to buy a new house without a snagging list as long as your arm?

[jugears] 15/3/2020 10:43

Panick panick panick!!! It would be nice to here some other news now this is getting very boring.Starting to think the whole world has been brain washed considering we are 3 months on are things really that bad ? I am not convinced that isolation is the best approach this is just going to damage peoples health making them more suseptable to picking up a virous,some times it's better to let nature take its course this could die out by the summer, trying to delay it could help the virous continue in to next year or beyond Imo.

[1 nhs] 15/3/2020 10:35

From another ,

rodez15 Mar '20 - 10:25 - 1559 of 1560
0 0 0
1NHS. Thanks.The text is fine now.As far as your predictions are concerned they are proving to be uncannily accurate re the stock market and grounding of passenger aircraft fleets are concerned.I am hoping the rest of your analysis turns out to be wrong obviously.However I paid attention to your earlier suggestions regarding personal protection.Hope others did.

[jugears] 15/3/2020 08:40

Purple I'm fully aware of where the markets are going anything under 1.30 I will be happy but I'm in no rush the cash is ready & waiting,I have a figure in mind as to where these are going at the moment & that is still sone way off. IMHO nothing will be come clear for at least a month at which point I will a decide may game plan, I certainly wont be panicked in to buying or selling, My main priority is assisting my family to stay safe & healthy.

[1 nhs] 15/3/2020 06:52

JUGEARS

When you can’t get a mortgage house prices will be back down to about 1/8th of today’s prices.

Trust in the worlds governments is disappearing fast and their is a very good chance they will be unable to hold the line.

Governments are printing money like their is no tomorrow.

The issue here is it’s only day one in the scheme of things.

The world has changed

[purplepelmets] 14/3/2020 23:22

Don't to it Jugs, there's only one way stocks are headed over the next month(or more). I'm sitting on a lot of cash even though it is uncomfortable watching these bargains they will be bigger bargains in a few days or weeks. GLA

[steeplejack] 14/3/2020 22:52

Revolutions evolve at times like these.Three bad harvests was the ultimate catalyst for the French Revolution,the First World War led to the Russian revolution.The Caesars of old were well aware of how disorderly the people could become without bread and games.PS Toilet paper is now likely to enter the history books as something that humanity is simply not prepared to do without.

[pawsche] 14/3/2020 18:35

@sikhthetech...

Actually, according to the NHS, there were 540,000 cases of swine flu reported in the UK (see my "Millions will die" post, about 30 items upstream from here). Of those, a grand total of 138 died - a rate of 0.026%. Too many "authorities" are emulating Chicken Little.

[jugears] 14/3/2020 18:27

Well I'm ready to go cashless if it does, cash wasted sitting in the bank, To many bargains here now to ignore.

[gbh2] 14/3/2020 17:53

imo the proverbial will hit the fan Monday due to today's 40% increase in number of cases in 24 hrs.

[sikhthetech] 14/3/2020 17:45

Didn't the govn estimate some 25% of work force will become infected at some point..
The German Chancellor forecast around 70% so it's all guess work at the moment.

With Swine flu around 150,000 were infected in UK...


If companies in the supply chain had to close then how would it affect HBs??

[jugears] 14/3/2020 17:28

I never filter anyone some times there complete stupidity cheers me up.

[gbh2] 14/3/2020 17:16

srd Filtered so time ago, don't know why you waste your time reading & replying to the idiots.

[jugears] 14/3/2020 17:14

1 NHS TW have no debt, Plenty of assets & the majority of its staff are subcontract,A company like this can sit & wait & get rid of most of its overheads over night, Not many companies in that privileged position. TW will be here in 10 years & so will I,
Why don't I build you a boat & like Noah you can sail of with all the animals & save Mankind & the World, But you might have to wait 6 months were really busy we have had a run on boat orders recently.

[1 nhs] 14/3/2020 17:03

Some of us have done our best to warn others of the absolutely horrible events hitting the world today.

This company is particularly at risk of going bust.

[jugears] 14/3/2020 16:49

Oh look the nutty professor has posted again!I Don't fly I would rather go by boat, but I don't travel abroad because I don't like foreigners or foreign countries why would I even contemplate leaving this wonderful country of ours THE BEST IN THE WORLD!
To many planes in the sky anyway & you don't need to fly if you want to travel you can go by train it may take longer but the scenery is much better & a healthier way to travel- Your not Richard Branson are you???

[gbh2] 14/3/2020 16:38

Wish you luck Alan, hope you manage to avoid it until a vaccine is ready.

I'm pretty healthy but the missus has underlying health issues that put her in the high risk category, last week we were stood down from school run duties, not expecting to make physical contact with our grandchildren until next month at best.

[1 nhs] 14/3/2020 15:56

Here we go , ( as predicted )

By another

13
The end of airlines
Posted on March 14 2020

2020 is going to be the most extraordinary year which will live long in the memory of all those who survive it, which I hope to do.

Most of us will get coronavirus. Outside the UK many will survive. Here a smaller proportion will, entirely as a result of the decision of the government to encouraged the mass spread of the disease.

Simultaneously, we are already witnessing one of the biggest stock market crashes in history. The situation is volatile, but the only way is down for some time still to come in my opinion.

This crash is going to be followed by an economic crisis unless governments intervene on unprecedented scales (which they can) as record numbers of businesses in a wide range of sectors will fail, and hundreds of thousands, if not millions of jobs will be lost.

Worse, the risk that all the failings of financial capitalism, accumulated over 40 years, will become apparent simultaneously is very high: markets built on the flimsiest of foundations, such as the zero cost of capital that most banks have enjoyed for the last decade, will prove to be unsustainable and a domino effect will emerge.

At the same time enforced behavioural change will make it apparent to people that we really do have to change our lifestyles if we are, as a worldwide community, to also survive climate change and beat its consequences.

Combine all those factors and some quite extraordinary things are going to happen, including the complete elimination of some business sectors that have become so commonplace to many of us that their disappearance is very hard to imagine, and yet has to be contemplated, nonetheless.

I will offer an example. I suggest that the entire worldwide airline industry is probably going to cease to exist as we currently know it before the year is out.

British Airways has said that it is living through an unprecedented crisis. It has said that jobs will be lost, aircraft will be mothballed, routes will be closed, and that it has no idea what the impact of this will be. Lufthansa has already provided the answer to that last point: it has already applied to the German government for financial assistance to prevent it becoming insolvent. That is a pattern that I am quite sure every single airline will follow. I would suggest that there is, quite literally, none outside the state-owned sector that has anything like the financial resources to survive the crisis they now face.

Transatlantic flights are in lockdown.

Travel restrictions that will prevent mass tourism this summer are incredibly likely.

People are already exploring ways to work without having to travel.

And the idea that people will, whilst self-isolating, think about booking overseas holidays is fanciful, to say the least.

What is more, given that there was already a move against air travel because people are increasingly aware of its deeply destructive carbon footprint, once an unawareness that we can survive without getting airborne exists the demand for air travel, if and when it is recreated, is likely to be at a much lower level than in the past. A significant overall future reduction in demand is the almost inevitable consequence of the change that this sector will see this year.

In combination I suggest that this means that not a single commercial airline in the world can now be considered a going concern. And, given the likely duration of this crisis, I repeat that I expect every single one of them to fail. In the sector that is characterised by enormous investment in assets, the vast majority of which are paid for with long-term debt, which is unlikely to be waived as a consequence of the changes that are taking place at present, insolvency is the only, and inevitable outcome for every airline now in existence. I see no way around that.

Unless, of course, governments pretend, as they did in 2008, that 'there is no alternative' (the TINA scenario) to then save every airline. Except that the UK government response to Flybe suggests that this is unlikely. In that case a whole sector of commercial activity is, quite literally, going to come to an end.

I stress, I am not saying that we will never see a plane in flight again: that would be absurd. Very clearly that will happen. But whoever might be operating those planes in the future is very unlikely to be a company that is currently in existence.

What we will see is a reversion to the type of airline industry that existed when I was in my youth. Back then ( and it really was 'back then' in these terms) the vast majority of airlines were state-owned, and existed as what were known as 'national flag carriers'. National pride required that every country had such an operator, however much it cost to support it, and that cost was very often quite significant. This, I suspect, will be the new normal in this industry. But the result will be that states will make the decisions on air travel, and if they take climate change seriously this is going to mean that the era of massive air travel growth (which has been up about 50% since 2008) will be over.

This is going to be tough.

It will be tough on airlines.

And tough on their employees.

And the impact on the long haul destinations, in particular, and the other sectors that serve them, like cruising, will be harsh.

Surviving coronavirus is going to be tough. And when we get to the other side the world is going to look very different from what we have been used to. This time it really will be different

[dr_smith] 14/3/2020 15:46

I have some google finance sourced sheets, I have adapted for my own reference and note BWY,PSN,RDW,TW and VTY are all in range of 61.9% to 62.85% of their respective ATH's.
A very tight range, less than 1%!!

I don't hold BKG but note they are at 66.11%

We know it is macro-economics at play, but still, I wouldn't expect such a tight range and it is sector specific (EZJ 43.81%).

I can only guess the big boys have a risk matrix, by sector and geographic region, and this high level data can quickly be applied to selling bots, so risk exposure can speedily be applied across big folios with minimal (costly) delay of human time it would otherwise take to disseminate and apply piece-meal.

IMO
Dave

[eeza] 14/3/2020 15:17

There's a great many 'zombie' co's who should have gone bust after 2008, but were saved by rock bottom interest rates, who will now bite the dust. That'll be a boost to the strong, efficient survivors who will now get the business.

[turvart] 14/3/2020 15:05

Why do you think the Government upped the pension to 5% and employers must pay 3%? its because they want that 8%