Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 04/12/2024 14:01

Approx 10% of people don't turn up for hospital outpatient appointments, tests and scans - as an approximate estimate.

There is huge efficiency as a result of this alone.

[jugears] 04/12/2024 13:37

Becks,
The problem with Starmer is he won't back down & admit he's wrong! All he needed to do was increase income tax by 1% & he could have kept winter fuel allowance, cut inheritance tax, left NI the same & still had 3 times as much money to spend, who is really going to miss a few pounds in their pocket each week? About £8 a week for a 40k earner! he didn't need to put any extra money in the NHS, It just needs to spend money better!!!!

[kreature] 04/12/2024 12:53

Just wondering if the labour guy was created in a test tube as some kind of secret experiment?

[beckers2008] 04/12/2024 09:29

t2,

Good luck to you, on the TA front a bowl maybe forming and the RSI is low indicating oversold.

I see the Tories have forced the Labour Government to vote on the 'Farm Tax' to save our family farms.
Some Labour MP's representing those farming communities are going to abstain, lol!
Labour MP's can't even vote for their own legislation, how pointless our government is, lol!
Will Marxist Keir remove the whip from those MP's to add to their growing list, lol, just lol!

[tlobs2] 04/12/2024 09:11

There have been some bad Prime Ministers over the years but Starmer is by far the worst. Deluded clown who is well out of his depth.

That said, having crashed the economy he and Rachel have enabled me to buy back the shares that I sold back in September at 163p for 129p earlier today. Onwards and upwards.

[beckers2008] 03/12/2024 23:42

Oh dear...

"Keir Starmer refuses to meet 99-year-old war veteran who had £60k wiped off her pension.
‘Frozen pensioner’ denied meeting after travelling 5,000 miles – and campaigning for decades." END.

Globe trotting, Dire Keir, spending so much tax payers money... Environmentally friendly he is not, contrary to his manifesto, lol!

Currently, Dire Keir is extremely fortunate that France may have a 'No Confidence' vote, on the current administration!

If there was a run on the pound, nowhere to hide, 'viva la France' luckily for Red tax and spend dire Kier... Currently, lol, just lol!

You heard it here first, trolls, lol, just lol!

[jugears] 03/12/2024 22:17

Sick it won't hit margins it will be passed on to the customer, like all companies intend to do, where is the government going to get the money from to fund Houses? they need the private sector to fund it, they don't have money to buy the land let alone build on them, if it helps I will buy another 100k shares tomorrow, its about time I spent some of that interest income anyway.

[jugears] 03/12/2024 22:14

Sick it doesn't matter who builds what it's where the labour & materials will come from, that is the barrier to building more houses, I would love to here your magical views on that, but it is not going to be a case of if you can't build we will, I've worked for a vast number if house builders over the years so I know who they are & what they are capable of building I also know that many regional builders have gone bust since covid which has reduced current capacity by 10-15% in 4 years, add to this the number of foreign workers that have left the country & you can see we are going to struggle to even get back to pre covid levels, it will be interesting to see what happens with the railway that is being nationalised, the government couldn't make a go of it before lol, I think the chances of the government nationalising the housing industry is about as unlikeably as seeing a Dodo, you worry far to much sick that is why some of us are successful business men & some arn't, sleep well, I have to be up at 5 am

[essentialinvestor] 03/12/2024 22:06

JUG, yes, however as it was a 51/49 merger (2007) in favour of Taylor Woodrow, on a long term chart that should make little difference to the % returns I referenced.

Berkeley develop in a concentrated geographic area, so their call on the private rental markets needs to be viewed in this context - more suited to very large urban populations centres, as per London and the SE.

[sikhthetech] 03/12/2024 21:11

Oh look, the govn has just announced they are to nationalise SW Trains.

There are dozens of housebuilders out there. If the bigger ones won't build then there are many others who will do so.

The govn will do what they want to. If that means compulsory purchase of land and property to meet their targets then they will do so.
If it means windfall taxes on HBs then so be it.

Building social housing is their main aim. That's low margin.

If TW had to re-employ hundreds of extra staff then the recent NI and minimum wage will hit TW's margins hard.

[jugears] 03/12/2024 20:55

Sick, The government want 1.5million houses I Don't expect they will want to alienate the very companies that will be building them. I didnt say they need to borrow money, I said they like all host builders have facilities in place if they needed to borrow. I started investing with 2k nearly 50 years ago & have continuosly reinvested profits from shares, I are put very little other money in my portfolio, I bought all my properties from profits from my businesss, all now fully owned outright, I haven't used any money from the sale of my business & still have all the money I had saved before I sold it, now I get a pension, income from shares & income from my property & interest on my savings, the last time I borrowed money was to buy my first CNC machine. I bought the majority of Tw shares for 30-37p & reinvested all the dividends in shares until Covid, I have now started taking dividends as shares in most of my investment, I would never borrow money to buy shared far to risky.
We are in a visious circle house prices won't fall unless we build more, since the last recession a substantial amount of people can now work from home & no longer need to relocate for work, people not only earn a lot more now but there are more choicest of jobs available, banks are also more lenient with debt, If the government steel land from builders who will build on that land that are large enough & skilled enough & has the buying power to make those houses affordable, there is physical not enough man power or materials available & there hasn't been for years that is why we are in the situation we are in now the gov have 3 billion to spare that's roughly 12000 houses, where is the money coming from for the other 1million 488k coming from,
Bkg will build 400 rental homes a year for 10 years when will they be starting? You really do midd the bigger picture, meanwhile Tw will continue steadily increasing & selling the number of homes they build, unfortunately this country doesn't have the ability or capacity to build homes for everyone & it's unlikely we ever will, over the last few years millions of people have put off buying a home, due to covid, cost of living & higher interest rates, once rates are in a downward trajectory, more & more buyers enter the market & that is when we are going to see the full effects of the housing crisis, I don't think we could cope with a housing boom at the moment,is the answer to leave interest rates higher & let the housing market find its own path? It wasn't that long ago that people were camping outside building sites to get their names down on a property, if rates fall to fast I can see us back there again, in the next cycle where we don't have brexit & covid I can see a lot of investors wishing they had bought TW at 89p even 1.30, never underestimate long term share values be cause you just never know where they will go NXT, RR,& ess example of bkg prove that, I've had share that drifted for years & then just took off that's whynI invest for the long term, It can.be very tempting to panic sell when shares are falling but that is the time to buy not sell.

[jugears] 03/12/2024 20:52

Ess TW didn't exist in 1994! But hence why I always in vest for the long term.

[sikhthetech] 03/12/2024 20:41

Rentals are out of reach of many.
Buying is out of reach of many.


The problem is the house prices are too high. They need to be significantly lower, thus making it possible for renters, who can afford to, buy their own home.

[sikhthetech] 03/12/2024 20:39

Jugears

"why would they need to sell land?"

What part of the word "Compulsory" in "Compulsory Purchase" don't you understand????
There's nothing stopping the govn making compulsory purchases of land. If anyone is holding land to force the price up then it can be investigated.

You think the govn will say that they will pay a premium to land prices because Jugears says so.
Really???


"they already have sufficient borrowing in place"
Why do they need borrowing? They have huge amounts of cash, don't they or have they wasted it on paying a flawed divi policy?


"I've never been one to borrow money so I couldn't short anyway"
Why do people need to borrow money to short etc? Likewise, you must have borrowed a huge amount of money to buy the shares you claim you own.


"we have no proof sickly that you have ever shorted these shares have we?"

There you go, if the share price had risen above 168p you and becky etc would have been shouting 'shorters are burning'. Because the share price has fallen, it's "there's no evidence of me shorting"

168p to 128p, whilst you've been loading up all the way down...

who's made more money, those who shorted at 168p or those who loaded up, like you, all the way down from 165p???

[essentialinvestor] 03/12/2024 19:37

If you bought BKG in 1994 , you would be Up not far off a 5,000% gain, that's not a mistype, nearly 5,000% - dividends Not included.

TW over the same timescale is Up approx 30% - not including dividends.

I would never bet against Berkeley.

[jugears] 03/12/2024 19:22

Ess very long term, I did warn that VTY's business model didn't look very good, just saying like!

[essentialinvestor] 03/12/2024 18:28

* BKG is not converting to a private residential landlord, they remain a house builder, with another business.

The numbers in private rentals are rapidly growing, while some smaller landlords are leaving the sector.

BKG looking at longer term returns as increasing sections of the population can no longer afford to buy in London and the South East.

[jugears] 03/12/2024 18:12

Ess, that's even better for Tw then, less competition in private house sector with Vistry gone & Bdev who will condense both operations, IMEO things are looking even better for TW, Berekeley should see a return then in about 50 years, not a good business model IMO that is why housing associations are cutting back on the number of homes they are having built, it does seem to me that some house builders are neglecting those that can afford houses still, I built a row of five houses years ago that are rented out but I would never do it again from scratch it takes years before you see a return on your money, I think the fact that they will only build 400 a year over the next 10 years says something, don't you? it may be a long term investment but its initially going to be hell of a drain on finances, stick to what you know, that's why I stick with TW because they have a good business model that works & IMEO that business model is going to get a whole lot bigger, I think you have persuade me to be a load more tomorrow, Thanks

[beckers2008] 03/12/2024 18:09

Ess,

Indeed, rental prices are only going one way...Up and some!
Decent 3 bed house rental within a mile of Mainline station within 45 minutes of London... minimum £1,600 pcm in Q4, smashed my estimate of £1,500 pcm in Q4.
Making home ownership more affordable comparably.

[essentialinvestor] 03/12/2024 17:29

I may have mentioned previously - Berkeley is entering the private rental sector.

With increasing numbers locked out of home ownership, this area is set to boom.

[danvandan] 03/12/2024 17:19

You think that based on what? Are you a political analyst now as well as an investment guru? You can't even forecast TW right and this is practically all you do all day, so it's obvious you've got no idea about a general election. It's four years away and the govt will be sitting on massive tax revenue in a year or two and will begin dropping it in flashy crowd-pleasing giveaways. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they're in for two terms.

Anyway, main index up half a percent today; TW down one percent. If that doesn't tell you something, £1 is going to come as a great shock to you pigsear.

[jugears] 03/12/2024 16:44

Becks I think an early election is very likely.

[beckers2008] 03/12/2024 15:44

Jugs,

Tw. will increase production slightly in 2025, growing by circa 7 - 10% each year for the next few years thereafter.
TW. will not sacrifice margins for this communist government.
Steady as she goes for a few years with increasing dividends.

Will Labour complete their term?
Jury is out but I wouldn't be surprised if there is an early election for all sorts of possibilities.

[jugears] 03/12/2024 15:34

LOL you might know happy would be back! why would they need to sell land? its not ifs buts & might be's again is it sickly????, they already have sufficient borrowing in place & I'm sure plenty of banks would lend against their land bank which is now very unlikely to fall in value (Please read a previous post as to why land prices will keep increasing)
If I sold 2 million shares in TW(not that I ever would) how much would my high rate tax bill be? More than 400K, If I keep 2 million shares in TW & they drop 28p how much will I lose? nothing is the answer, only investors or more likely shorter's lose money, I don't & will never need to sell any.
I think it is extremely unlikely that Labour will achieve their housing goals in the next 4 years where will the labour & materials come from, you can't just build new factories or train people & even if you could you need to source the raw materials to go in those factories, its a pipe dream
I pay for shares with my own money, that means I own them,I am happy buying any under £1.50 & have already done so, I don't have to worry about time limits, just like those I bought at 98p & sold half at 1.80 & those I bought at 89pm & still hold, plus all the dividends, all of my recent purchase will show a good return in the future & return a good dividend, far in excess of the 40p I could perhaps of made shorting, but I've never been one to borrow money so I couldn't short anyway.& we have no proof sickly that you have ever shorted these shares have we? hindsight is a wonderful thing old chap, but I do own all of my shares, I don't mind admitting that I don't always buy at the right time, but then I never buy shares in any company that I am not going to get a return on, hence why I sold TLY at 21p having purchased at 15p
At the end of the day Tw's land bank alone has a substantial value far in excess of the current share price, the uk needs houses, the uk Government want houses & somebody needs to build those houses!
Once again for those thickies on here,When TW had over 1 billion of debt it wasn't created by the GFC or a housing slump, it was caused by George Wimpey & Taylor Woodrow merging, Tw were selling houses & making a profit & paying that debt off by the end of the first year of the GFC.