Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 12/12/2024 16:57

Jugears

"I don't invest in any company for dividends"

I said any income seekers. It's funny how you and several others often mention the huge dividends you receive and base the amount you have made to inc dividends. If you don't invest for dividends then why mention them????

There's going to some income seekers who are invested for the income. If that income dives then income seekers are likely to sell and look for alternative. That both funds and PIs.


"I think the start date is about 1-2 years away, I will probably be dead by the time they have built them"

Yet you're wasting away that little time you believe you have left on writing lengthy BS on BBs!!!!!


"I expect TW to have built a lot more than that."

Maybe, the point is the small housebuilder, Quinn Estates is planning to build around the same as TW, the ftse 100 HB does in 1 year!!!.

[beckers2008] 12/12/2024 16:29

Well you would, wouldn't you DvD, but you still won't make the correct call, you haven't made one yet!
Mug-punter comes to mind, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 12/12/2024 16:15

One for beckers, now that she/he has managed to get out of bed - Steve Cohen's Point72 hedge-fund has increased its short on TW again; back to 0.71% of all shares. You did ask me to stay up-to-date on this. 😊

[jugears] 12/12/2024 16:01

Oh Sicky yawn yawn yawn, boring or what, get a life old man. I don't invest in any company for dividends but as buyers return to the market I expect profits to increase & could look to Quinns, very nice firm to deal with, I think the start date is about 1-2 years away, I will probably be dead by the time they have built them, I wonder who they will get on board to help them cause they are more into construction than housing? funny people see 12000 odd houses & think they will be built straightaway its going to take at least 5 years according to my contacts & still a lot to sort out by which time I expect TW to have built a lot more than that.

[danvandan] 12/12/2024 15:51

Labour and materials are not in short supply; the market is barely above idle and has produced 50% more output just three years back. TW however, does not have the cash. Competitors, in the form of hundreds of regional developers, do have the cash. TW will lose market share and be stymied by its dividend cash drain.

And btw junkears, brownfield developments sell like hot cakes - please point to a brownfield development where the properties are unsold. There isn't one. Your self-claimed 'expert opinion' seems to be based on unadulterated bullsh1t.

[danvandan] 12/12/2024 15:49

A news story in the Times print version today:
Housing market's summer recovery could be a blip, warn agents.

It seems that contrary to claims on here, estate agents collectively recognise that the re-introduction of the old stamp duty thresholds, plus the existing affordability issues, will cause the market to slump.

[jugears] 12/12/2024 15:46

Icarus If you haven't got to build 4 external faced walls of course its cheaper to build TBF you have Less land & materials in smaller houses but the margins are roughly the same, so building 3-4 bed house & building affordable homes doesn't really lower profit margins except like VTY who are building for third parties on a much lower fixed rate but these sites tend to be pure affordable homes for housing associations, whilst some will buy houses on private developments these come at a much higher price, Tw. are well enough managed to adapt to change if necessary but IMEO there is still a very healthy appetite for larger family homes, Brown field sites may not be suitable for everyone due to location & don't tend to be in the countryside or edge of town whee a lot of people now want to live since covid, It seems very much to me that Labour are adopting an attitude where by this is where the housing is going & this is where you will live even if people don't want to,Local councils won't allow developments in unsustainable villages, I.e no bus route, no School, no shop equals
no development other than infill. I think it is highly likely that Labour will flood the market in time with affordable homes that not many people want, as I have said before brown field sites can cost a substantial amount of time & money to develop, I know of one in the midlands that has take 4 years & still isn't complete & not even a large scale development, it took 18 months just to level the site, the big issue is labour & materials both in very short supply.

[sikhthetech] 12/12/2024 15:45

EI

"And the market agrees..PSN shares Down 55% over 5 years" and "TW Down 35%"

I expect that's more to do with TW's c7.5% NAV fixed divi scheme. I think that scheme is flawed. Given the lower number of builds then cash will decline quicker.
If they change their divi policy to more in line with other HBs then I expect income seekers will sell TW.

[1carus] 12/12/2024 15:23

Up here in sunny Scotland I am seeing a lot more 'affordable' housing being built into the schemes. These are being built first on most projects. Looks like the percentage of 'affordable' has been increased. Even Cala are building many such units on their sites. Still 3,4 and 5 beds going up though, but a lower percentage of the bigger houses with double garages etc . TBF, these 2 or 3 storey affordable housing complexes/flats etc may offer a better return to the builders if they can get the model right, as they are getting way more properties per square meter. I don't see all this changing house prices as they will just build these 1/2 bedroom flats at the 'affordable' point, but the same people will want 3/4 and 5 bedroom houses as before.

[jugears] 12/12/2024 14:10

Sickydo
He said local authorities should be given greater powers to force developers to build once they had secured planning permissions, rather than sitting on the land

I loved that bit, the country is very near build capacity now, no company would be able to build on all the land that they own at the same time, many plots of land are are phased work anyway, In my extreme expert opinion this will make no difference to land owned by TW & will not in anyway rapidly increase house building, it is just not physically possible currently in the uk, that said hb's have been contacting supplies about increasing production, hence why I am going back to work part time for my old company after Christmas
Of course that bbc report doesn't tell you that the development will take little old quinny 5 years to complete!

[essentialinvestor] 12/12/2024 14:00

Not for BKG, who this month guides on costs.. inline - PSN, as we know, has recently cautioned on costs.

Some of this arguably relates to how well a particular company is run.

PSN is (imv) not in the same quality league as TW, as I've mentioned a number of times over the last few years.

And the market agrees..PSN shares Down 55% over 5 years (not including dividends) and TW Down 35%, again not including dividend payments.

[beckers2008] 12/12/2024 13:49

Sikhthetech,

C&P, Left wing, woke BBC, Lol!

You are simply a fraud who is a clueless mug-punter and whom has lost it's shirt from October 2018 when it called TW. short, lol!

Tell me, when is your each and every year's house price crash going to happen for the last six years, lol, just lol!

You are not credible.

[sikhthetech] 12/12/2024 13:29

DVD,
Thanks for posting the article.

What's interesting from that article:

Quinn Estates are planning to build 8,400 homes. That is not far off the 10k TW build nationally in the entire year!!
The Govn are taking control and forcing builders to build. As expected.
The govn don't want developers sitting on land with pp. Therefore, forced development on the way. as expected.


Starmer's plan to solve housing crisis faces first big test


"But at the eleventh hour it was "called in" by Housing Secretary Angela Rayner. This means the government will take over the planning application rather than let the local authority decide."

"Adam Hug from the Local Government Association said: "People cannot and do not live in planning permissions".

He said local authorities should be given greater powers to force developers to build once they had secured planning permissions, rather than sitting on the land."

"During the consultation phase, local councils told the government its housebuilding plan was "unrealistic" and "impossible to achieve"."

[beckers2008] 12/12/2024 12:56

sT,

It's obvious that you have not been involved in project and/or contract management and conditional obligations/commitments of both parties!
Why do you comment on here when you're so clueless, lol!

Meanwhile...
As I reported here last time out, Marshall Wace were burnt by the tune of well over £50m whilst they were rushing for the exit, seems once burnt, twice shy, lol, just lol!

[sunshine today] 12/12/2024 12:43

The pressure on tradesman’s wages will be extreme, worse, sites can’t work to schedule when even a single trade is off site, for more than a few days.

This sends prelim costs through the roof.

[jugears] 12/12/2024 12:38

Exactly, then we have that long & sometimes slow rise up until the summer, when the shares drift & then fall back up to early December which happens like clockwork almost every year!

[essentialinvestor] 12/12/2024 12:34

Q4 is (again usually) the weakest for the sector with Q1, the strongest.

Buying in December and selling in the following summer worked once again over the last 12 months.

[essentialinvestor] 12/12/2024 12:30

Year end rally is a usual, rather than a definite.

[baracuda2] 12/12/2024 12:04

Yes Jugs not long now until they get there little troll finger's burnt

[jugears] 12/12/2024 11:22

It must be anytime now that the Santa rally starts & all those shorts get closed, a time of year when most of us celebrate & the shorter's count there losses & as 60% lose money that is a lot of Losers! oh well.

[kreature] 12/12/2024 09:02

There’s also ‘build cost inflation’ and ‘ the cost of new building regulations’ to consider, as sighted by one of the other house builders.