Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 06/12/2024 11:31

BKG Tu shows why it is important to build houses of all sizes in a wide geographical area & not just high end in the south as they do! (IMEO)
Erm house prices continuing to rise, I must admit that quite a few for sales signs have appeared on unaffordable homes in my area in recent weeks, one house was only on rightmove 2 days before being sold stc

[kreature] 06/12/2024 10:56

And a liability if you have a new build with uncapped estate management fees

[kreature] 06/12/2024 10:55

Houses no longer an investment. Just a deprecating asset like a car

[essentialinvestor] 06/12/2024 10:33

Added a small amount.

[kreature] 06/12/2024 00:00

Junkears “ I have been a supplier to house builders for 50 years, although I sold my company recently, I am still connected. “

Hmmm…. Adhesives ?
Phone lines ?

[jugears] 05/12/2024 22:45

Fletch, I have been a supplier to house builders for 50 years, although I sold my company recently, I am still connected. Tw already have planning consent for circa 90k housed this would last 9 years on current levels, once planning permission is granted it can't be taken away, hb' s don't go in to work on January the 2nd & say right this year we will build x amount of houses, its planed years In front Tw will already know what they will be building in 2026/27 , we were given orders up to 18 months in front. IMEO hb's will not need to worry about 50/50 developments during Labour's term & according to my mp who is a very good friend it will be brownfield developments where planning will be issued with greater stipulations anyway. Its best IMEO to not worry until we know & we are years away to that.

[jugears] 05/12/2024 22:43

What I think is that you over think, it s not just a case of buildinf affordable houses you need to cater for everyone or where will those affordable house people move up to & what is affordable?

[fletcher] 05/12/2024 22:41

JugearsThe problem is TW's land bank, along with other house builders, are held and used for future finical projections. And part of those projections are based on assumptions: grant of planning dates, revenues ( private & Social), technical considerations and costs. If you change any one assumption it knocks on to the bottom line. + or -

[fletcher] 05/12/2024 22:30

JugearsI have worked in house building technical / finance / land acquisition since the 80's . Have seen it all before, and what I see now frighten's me. What's more frightening is Starmer's glasses ie what's thought process going on behind them.

[jugears] 05/12/2024 22:28

It's never been achieved before because it's not possible, it's going to take many years to train labour then you need new factories to manufacture the materials, then you need the land to build on, if he wants 95% renewable energy as well something is going to have give, there is not enough land for both, at least Tw's huge land bank should double in value, unlike other recession land os in such demand the I think there is zero chance of it falling in price. The Gov has not said who will build these house or if they will be rented out or for sale? If they are for rent who will buy them when housing associations are cutting back on investment?
I think house price will rise by a minimum 5% a year
& it will take at least 3 years to increase production. House builders won't build houses for nothing.

[jugears] 05/12/2024 21:41

I wonder how many posters on here were still at school in the financial crisis? & how many have lived through the 70's & 80's?

[yf23_1] 05/12/2024 17:59

You see there are always people who buy at points in the downtrend because they think its 'cheap'. So you're always going to get the odd temporary support point but as the fundamentals dont improve that price point does not look 'cheap' anymore, so down to the next 'cheap' looking price.

[danvandan] 05/12/2024 17:27

Of course, the one you should really be discussing is this:

TW's shareprice is likely to go a lot lower. Management here is currently managing decline and it could be years before the market picks up again. The sector's fundamentals have shifted in a big way; interest rates are returning to their long-run average at 5% or higher and we have a govt which is not going to subsidise house-buying for the benefit of house-builders. Housing is a hugely inflated asset bubble, priced way beyond the realistic means of working people because of years of zero-interest loans and badly conceived govt subsidies. An average house is at least £100,000 over-priced and it will take years for wage inflation to bridge this affordability gap.

On top of this, every cost area is rising for builders; materials, labour, taxation and new-build legislative standards. Every revenue area is being depressed; house prices are falling in real terms and it is only a matter of time before leasehold for houses (nothing more than a scam) and onerous estate charges are removed/reduced by government. In short, we are seeing a slow systemic change taking place which will strangle profits for housebuilders for the foreseeable future.

Mid-2023 the market recognised the dire situation for housebuilders and priced TW at £1. Since then, financial metrics have gone lower for the business (profit and cash in particular). My guess is that the share price will drop well past £1, especially if and when land values begin to drop. Some people cannot imagine such a situation because land has risen reliably for decades, but we are in a unique situation; the UK has effectively expelled hundreds of thousands of Europeans through Brexit, and population growth has stalled; in two decades the UK birth rate has fallen way below replacement levels. Local authorities are planning to close and consolidate schools because of a shrinking population. Nationally, hundreds of thousands of properties are currently empty; core drivers of housing need are diminishing.

Because of the factors above, house-prices and demand can only be driven one way. My guess is that TW's share price could fall dramatically as this picture becomes more obvious to the market. Already, TW's financial base has been quickly hollowed out through excessive dividend payout. Forecast 'operational' profit is estimated at £400m (declining heavily for a third straight year) but the amount converted to cash will be much lower and will not even cover the current dividend. TW will have to sell assets to generate cash and/or reduce the dividend, which will mean a major change of policy (currently, dividend payout is set at 7.5% of the company's 'value'). Previously, the share price here has been as low as 30p. I see no reason why TW's shareprice shouldn't get to that level again.

[danvandan] 05/12/2024 17:24

Put the whole post in beckers.

[danvandan] 05/12/2024 17:20

When the chartists are calling this down on top of the fundamentals, you know a share is in trouble. £1 is coming.

[jugears] 05/12/2024 17:19

I'm waving but no one is waving back, will be plenty of waves tonight its going to be rough at sea!

[beckers2008] 05/12/2024 17:16

K,

Not answering the question, thought not.

"The best call on this BB was mine, buying at 86p and hopefully investors took my advise and made a handsome profit.
The share price went to over £1.60.

So if investors sold at say £1.30 would that not be a good move?"

[yf23_1] 05/12/2024 17:09

.. or we could be starting wave 3 down (which is usually longer than 1st) if you don't count the blip at start of Nov as wave 2.
Yuk !

[yf23_1] 05/12/2024 17:07

Candles : Looks like 2 3-waves from the recent top (5-wave completion) now in wave 5 on the down wave.

[danvandan] 05/12/2024 16:51

Well pigsear, it seems you're reading my posts again, even though you CLAIM to have filtered me. I can see that it gets to you because it exposes you for being a massive liar. Just to remind you and the other shameless rampers here, let me repeat.

You don't worry pigsear? 250 posts from you in the last two months says otherwise. You're plainly VERY worried about the direction of the shareprice, and so you should be.

It's going to get worse. Your claim that TW is a well run business is being sorely tested by the business's failure to address its cash drain. The excessive dividend is eliminating cash. The business will have to either sell land or take on debt or issue shares. Forced sale of land will produce lower values that bring into question the value of all of TW's assets. Operating with debt in an economy where interest rates are likely to go up will create much higher costs. Issuing shares will cause a crisis of confidence and the shareprice will plummet. There is no way out. TW can limp along for a while but cash will need to be raised one way or another, AND the dividend will need to be reduced. £1 is coming.