Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 03/12/2024 14:39

EI

"It's already clear the LAB promise of rapidly increasing housing stock will not happen."


Labour is in power for 4+years!!!

They will obviously try and make it happen, especially social housing. It's not good news for HBs, as margins will be thin.

[sikhthetech] 03/12/2024 14:34

DVD

"let me remind you of your ridiculous blatherings on 20 September; the share price closed at 165p that day. But just for fun let's pretend I've shorted these @1.68 today to the tune of 100k & will see where I am on Christmas eve, who knows you might just convince me shorting is the way to go & for a bit more fun let's pretend I've purchased 100k today as well.'

If jugears claims are to be believed, he holds around £2m worth of TW shares. The fall from 168p to 128p is around £400k loss.

Becky and Jugears talk a lot of BS. If it talks BS, looks like BS then it is most likely BS.

[sikhthetech] 03/12/2024 14:27

Jugears

"Ess, Iv'e been investing for nearly 50 years"

And you've been proven wrong time after time.... even though you claim you have inside information, contacts with execs etc.

"even if they don't build or sell houses their land bank alone is worth 1.50-1.80"

Where did you get that info from? Apart from that, it means nothing as land/property prices can go down. et revalue

"very few companies are that asset rich & land"

Not much good if cash is declining fast. Land and property are difficult to sell fast. As Lefrene and I have proved to you, REITs who had to sell property fast sold them at avg 68% loss, which proves properties were sold for 40%+ lower!!!.

One of the many opinions which have been proved right!!

Expecting some properties to crash around 40%. REITS sold some 137 at average 68% loss!!



"if uk gov want more houses that will push land prices even higher"


Wrong. If labour want to build more houses, they could compulsory purchase land at the price they think is reasonable. Nothing stopping the govn from compulsory purchasing land or property at any time.

[sikhthetech] 03/12/2024 14:16

EI

"If we are looking at TW specifically, it has outperformed many of the other listed HB's over the last 5 years"

I think that's because they are committed to a c7.5% NAV dividend policy.
Therefore, income chasers prefer it.

However, I believe the dividend policy is flawed. Cash will decline quicker.
If they abandon the policy, I think those income chasers will dump the shares.

[kreature] 03/12/2024 13:21

Hypothetically, Perhaps the asiest way to solve the housing crisis would be to drastically reduce the population via say mandatory food and water additives ? Didnt a chief science advisor over the pond do a thesis on that ?

[baracuda2] 03/12/2024 13:04

Labour housing target is a pipe dream, it will never happen. Typical BS before an election

[beckers2008] 03/12/2024 12:59

Ess,

Demand is far outweighing supply and will continue for the foreseeable future unless Labour stick to their manifesto, evidently that was full of promises, since broken.

[essentialinvestor] 03/12/2024 12:47

House builders cutting volume is the last development anyone should wish for.

Over 40 years of not building a sufficient number of properties, inward migration has further fueled the issue.

An ageing housing stock at the other end of the spectrum with properties no longer habitable, further reducing supply.


It's already clear the LAB promise of rapidly increasing housing stock will not happen.

[beckers2008] 03/12/2024 09:44

Jugs,

Not sure if DvD, sT and K are the same, although K is part of the Joseph Sheedy group, lol!
Imo, they are irrelevant.

What I do know is the trolls lost the argument well over a year ago as I pointed out.

Evidently the lastest statement from Nationwide is as expected...

"House prices in the UK grew at the fastest rate in nearly two years in November, in a surprise acceleration despite near-record highs straining affordability, according to figures from Nationwide.
The annual growth rate rebounded to 3.7% in November, up from 2.4% in October, according to the UK's biggest building society. That was the fastest rate since November 2022."

Point 72 are skirting with a tight margin, no evidence of Marshall Wace entering the fray, they got ripped a new one and lost a fortune last time out, lol, just lol!

[kreature] 03/12/2024 09:19

Looks like housing market has gone phut here city centre following budget, zero viewings lined up

[kreature] 03/12/2024 09:12

Tbf, nothing wrong with debt, just so long as someone else is paying it

[danvandan] 03/12/2024 07:52

The 'cost of being alive crisis' continues to strangle spending. This will inevitably feed through into new house sales plummeting next year.



Supermarkets suffer biggest sales slump in five years as Budget gloom hits.

[danvandan] 03/12/2024 07:44

pigsear, let me remind you of your ridiculous blatherings on 20 September; the share price closed at 165p that day.

'But just for fun let's pretend I've shorted these @1.68 today to the tune of 100k & will see where I am on Christmas eve, who knows you might just convince me shorting is the way to go & for a bit more fun let's pretend I've purchased 100k today as well.'

At the time of writing, if you'd bought, you've now lost 36p or 22% of the value, so on £100k, that would be £22,000. Still three weeks to go before Christmas, so let's see if you can make that £50k down.

I believe at the time you were using expressions like 'no-brainer' which is one of your more accurate descriptions of yourself. Btw, you've posted about 240 messages on here in the 70 days since, which demonstrates the lie behind your long-term buy and hold claims. Every penny this drops causes you to shriek that it's about to recover, more and more. And still the price falls.

[kreature] 03/12/2024 00:00

‘ JUGEARS2 Dec '24 - 18:06 - 20004 of 20005
Ess, Iv'e been investing for nearly 50 years, I don't see any risk here at all, ‘

Did you say the same ridiculous statement at 170 recently ?

[jugears] 02/12/2024 18:06

Ess, Iv'e been investing for nearly 50 years, I don't see any risk here at all, even if they don't build or sell houses their land bank alone is worth 1.50-1.80, very few companies are that asset rich & land currently is a better investment than cash & if uk gov want more houses that will push land prices even higher, back in the day any sign of a recession & land prices would fall but things have changed since the GFC & land is sort after for many more profitable uses, Tree planting,Wind Farms,Solar Farms, Tax avoidance etc etc, IMEO the share price has far more chance of doubling than PSN or TLY, Tw raising cash to buy land during covid will prove to be an extremely wise & calculated movement in due course, like everyone on this BB I haven't got a clue where the markets will take us but unlike most on here I do know what this company & its assets are worth!

[essentialinvestor] 02/12/2024 17:05

Dan, I don't pretend to know what is going to happen.


If we are looking at TW specifically, it has outperformed many of the other listed HB's over the last 5 years.

Persimmon, might give more upside over the next 5, however TW is arguably a quality level above PSN. Depends on how much risk you want to take.

[danvandan] 02/12/2024 17:01

Btw, my last post had 20,000/20,000 vision. I thank you.

Also, Essential..., I've given you a 'like' for clarity and succinctness, and I'm writing a strongly worded email to advfn asking them 'WHY can't I like this post twice?!'

[danvandan] 02/12/2024 16:56

What about going INTO a downturn?

[jugears] 02/12/2024 16:53

ess, if you build fewer houses you make less profit as expected they did, its not rocket science, its worth noting that house builders profits grow faster than any other industry when emerging from a down turn.

[danvandan] 02/12/2024 16:50

And btw pigsear, no one is saying the TW management team is poor. At least not yet. But if you give the best pilots in the world an aeroplane with dead engines over the mid-Atlantic, that aeroplane is landing in the water and everyone will die. TW has one engine running, and it looks to me like it's sputtering badly.

[essentialinvestor] 02/12/2024 16:45

Sector margins and profitability collapsed,
that's what happened, the wider housing market did not.


House builders are not necessarily interchangeable with the wider UK housing market.