Tandem Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 28/3/2021 18:30

CT..... Do not forget the added value of the property after the deal. It’s probably going to be worth £20m plus so could add £10m to NTA

[castleford tiger] 28/3/2021 12:36

bwm

I am still doing my research and detailed target.

Like you and before running any numbers its crazy cheap.

I say that based on EPS Growth over 4 years/net cash/expansion in 2022/massive growth in D2C business/reduction in external costs.

My valuation was based on earnings of 100p eps ( 5 million ) x 10 to get to a £10.00 target. This was for 2022............again its looking like we need to bring that forward.

There are many reasons why the multiple should be higher than 10.
However just based on your conservative estimate after taking cash out and using 10 x earning you arrive at £10.00 this year.

One of the reasons why I remain a buyer.

This could 10 bag from last years lows without much effort.
tiger

[bwm2] 27/3/2021 19:25

Anyone else care to share thoughts?

[bwm2] 27/3/2021 19:24

Reworked my 2021 target eps. Lots of conservative assumptions and in particular H1 gm% to get eps 85.3p. Still so cheap

[davidosh] 26/3/2021 20:30

Just to mention that Tandem will be one of six companies featured in the March results round up in the MelloMonday show in two days time. It will be a really packed five hour show but here are the timings....


Programme for the evening

5.00 pm Introduction to our Mello Roadshow
5.05 pm Alun @MrContrarian reviews the Mello BASH companies
5.10 pm Company presentation by Judges Scientific
5.40 pm How to join corporate fundraisings with Primary Bid
6.00 pm Company presentation by Filta Group
6.30 pm Leon Boros interviews Peter Harrison from Bioventix
7.00 pm Company presentation by Digital Box
7.30 pm A March results round up with Paul Scott, Gordon @glasshalfull & Alan Charlton
8.00 pm Company presentation by Get Busy
8.30 pm Mello BASH with Alan Charlton, Alex Schlich, Richard Crow (@RebelHQ) and Kevin Taylor


If you have not been before the webpage is here Do use this code for a half price ticket MMTADVFN50

[zho] 26/3/2021 07:28

Tandem Group riding high on back of bike boom

[gabrielsant] 25/3/2021 18:14

I Agree, couple of months ago I predicted around 10 for the end of March, and after knowing 90% ahead prior year,we could say that 10 is probably already in the bush.

[castleford tiger] 25/3/2021 17:35

The one bit of good news most have not mentioned today and it helps with the freight issue is a much weaker $ which will help the margin.

The other key issue is the mix of sales from FOB business to D2C business that's far higher margin.

The cost of containers is falling back quite fast.

The company is leaner and meaner than it was, with little going on interest payments now and the company using its cash to queue jump in areas of stock shortages.

The Directors have a fair few quid invested in the business so they will be giving this their best shot.

Once the new building is operational additional savings will be made and costs cut further.
Plus more stock can be on site to cut down on out of stock periods again increasing sales.

I will have forecasts for the coming year once I have run the options.

tiger

[davidosh] 25/3/2021 14:41

Here is the conclusion in the write up by Jack Brumby at Stockopedia. Jack is on our Buy Avoid, Sell or Hold panel at Mello and put Tandem forward for analysis last month. He will be very happy that the company are performing well....


Conclusion

Tandem is optimistic about the outlook for 2021 and with good reason. The group notes:

As we reported in February, we are pleased with the encouraging start to 2021 with year to date revenue in the 11 weeks to 21 March 2021 approximately 90% ahead of the same period last year, despite a number of pressures facing the Group.
There are issues, too. COVID-19 continues to have an impact on the supply chain and the group’s ability to identify and source new products has been compromised. So far though, management has clearly done quite a good job of navigating this tricky situation.

The freight issues which it reported on in February are showing signs of improvement, although Tandem is still paying much higher shipping rates than it was paying last year. These should settle in the coming months but for now margins will be taking a hit due to this.

Lead times are an increasingly prevalent issue, particularly with regard to bicycles due to global demand for components. Tandem is committing to purchases much further into the future.

Ultimately though, the forward order book is substantially greater than it was at the same time last year. Management consequently expects to achieve turnover growth.

The group is in a good spot right now and the signs are that this should continue for at least another six months to a year. It would be prudent to forecast some degree of reversion in trade as leisure businesses and transport networks reopen, but there is also evidence of longer term, company-specific catalysts that are being progressed by management.

On that note the freehold acquisition is particularly significant and the group is investing in its online Expressco group of businesses.

Yes, the company has a small market cap and its shares are horribly illiquid, but the price is just wrong here in my opinion, even after what has been quite a dramatic rerate so far.

It’s an unloved stock that doesn’t go out of its way to ‘play the game’ and engage with the market, but this could change and, ultimately, the share price is correlated to a company’s earnings progression.

[shanklin] 25/3/2021 14:38

TBH, I think I am comfortable with management continuing to do their stuff.

[davidosh] 25/3/2021 13:58

How about the company ( ie. the board) setting out a two or three year plan and targets of their own then reporting every six months on whether still on target to meet those goals?.

Creightons CRL do that and it works very well. No need for broker forecasts if management set a longer term goal and that can also smooth out bumps in the road

[amt] 25/3/2021 12:28

Yes, more than happy to leave the management to run the business and wait for the results. Forcasting very difficult.
I am glad they dont have broker coverage. Money and management time wasted on such stuff in my opinion.

[shanklin] 25/3/2021 11:59

Its a shame ther's no broker coverage but more than happy to continue to hold.

TND obviously highly reliant on management playing whatever they see in front of them in each and every year... ...so perhaps very difficult to forecast given the need to be highly adaptable.

But management has certainly played a blinder in recent years.

[castleford tiger] 25/3/2021 11:45

Almost 2% of the company has changed hands this morning and lots of trades so I suspect new shareholders are joining us with the clear belief that it is going to be an even better year ahead. The interim results should be very strong with the level of orders and revenues shown in Q1

I think the management team and all the staff have done a magnificent job through Covid and all the other challenges that have emerged throughout the past year

Don't trust the figures re trades DAVID.

I bought 5k yesterday and a 3k and a 5k today NONE ARE SHOWN OR SHOWING.

Therefore the figure is probably higher.

Growth over 4 years so its not a flash in the pan. 12 to 68p eps
Debt gone to substantial cash.

I need to dig into report to find other nuggets.

tiger

[davidosh] 25/3/2021 11:35

Almost 2% of the company has changed hands this morning and lots of trades so I suspect new shareholders are joining us with the clear belief that it is going to be an even better year ahead. The interim results should be very strong with the level of orders and revenues shown in Q1

I think the management team and all the staff have done a magnificent job through Covid and all the other challenges that have emerged throughout the past year

[sundance 13] 25/3/2021 11:19

Not a problem, as you say it's all good either way!!

[hpcg] 25/3/2021 11:09

sundance, Castleford, those are two different sentences addressing two different situations, both excellent.

[castleford tiger] 25/3/2021 09:47

sundance.....no worries I read this

We are optimistic about the outlook for 2021. As we reported in February, we are pleased with the encouraging start to 2021 with year to date revenue in the 11 weeks to 21 March 2021 approximately 90% ahead of the same period last year, despite a number of pressures facing the Group.

REVENUE to me is sales.

Either way we are all happy.

[indiagolf12] 25/3/2021 09:27

Great write up by Jack on stocko

[amt] 25/3/2021 09:13

Very good presentation. Very interesting. It made me realise what a dynamic and forward thinking Company they are. There is a lot going on.
Another very busy year ahead.

[sundance 13] 25/3/2021 08:42

Fair enough CT, though I was only quoting what they said!"Notwithstanding these issues the forward order book is substantially greater than it was at the same time last year, so we have reason to look forward with some optimism."

[tomps2] 25/3/2021 08:18

Tandem #TND very comprehensive results presentation here. Superb results but lots of moving parts so this is really helpful:

[castleford tiger] 25/3/2021 08:13

Not order book

Sales!!

[sundance 13] 25/3/2021 07:44

Great results, quite a few macro pressures on them in 2021 so nice to see the strong order book, which hopefully will offset those margin pressures.

[gabrielsant] 25/3/2021 07:38

It seems that we are on the good road :)