Tandem Share Discussion Threads

[gabrielsant] 11/1/2021 12:15

Price is dropping but its impossible to add even a few shares at 510,seems nobody wants to sell. Anybody know the reason of the drop? I belive is going to recover fast anyway. I sold my gold for nothing!

I have also noticed that for more than an item "uncorreled with tandem " there is a substantial extra fee for the transaction outside of the UK, even though I knew that after brexit we would have had free trading as before. is there anybody who knows about it? I don't know in which percentage tandem sell otside, thar fee is really inciseve on the choice of a small product!

[rachael777] 11/1/2021 12:05

10% decline in share price - what RNS did i miss ? ony 30k shares traded

[cwa1] 11/1/2021 11:31

For the nothing it is worth, I opted for a modest "ADD" to the portfolio

[shanklin] 11/1/2021 11:14

So, HOLD or ADD?

[castleford tiger] 08/1/2021 11:35

The figures are correct HOWEVER we have for example 15 booked and prices less than 50% of those quoted.
If you want to move a container today and you don't have a good relationship these prices are being asked.

We have had to divert some to teesport due to FELIXSTOWE being bunged up with PPE containers for the government.

tiger

[zho] 08/1/2021 11:02

Re conversation on shipping rates, I see that "container freight rates have climbed almost fourfold since November to reach $10,000 (£7,300) for the first time amid a global rebound in demand for consumer goods and materials" (Grauniad, a couple of days ago).

The article doesn't say what you get for your $10,000 but Googling, I found a 15/12/20 article which says:

It appears carriers are now regularly quoting $10,000 per 40ft HC for January shipments from China to the UK, and another source reported to The Loadstar today he “had heard of $13,500 being quoted”.

On CT's figure of 300 bikes per container that's a hefty whack (around $33/bike) on shipping.

[me55y] 06/1/2021 23:45

Hey CT, really appreciate the advice, thanks for that! cheers

[gabrielsant] 04/1/2021 16:52

Sorry for my english, I made a lot of errors, at least they are free. Instead I would be more focus on trying to understand the advantages that tandem has over the competitors and hence the ability to catch the demand if it will be a slow down in the industry after a couple of years, this is what I'd like to know, thanks.

[gabrielsant] 04/1/2021 15:16

In this case if price go down, be happy, you have your favorite shoes at a discount. It's not an advice, but you asked, and that's my humble opinion. Having said that, if I were sure I was right I would be the richer man on the planet :) so, take it with pinch of salt

[gabrielsant] 04/1/2021 15:00

And considering the growth trend, I wouldn't be surprised if it reach a pe of 15/20 "which is in line with the industry at the moment". I'm not an expert, but it seems a bargain even being really conservative with the number. Lot of cash, demand, no debt, tangible assets behind. At this price I see a big margin of safety, and almost a free future income to get. This stock is the biggest part of my portfolio, and I sleep very well :)

[skwas1] 04/1/2021 14:02

Thanks CT!

[castleford tiger] 04/1/2021 11:33

always difficult giving advice however here are my thoughts on TND.

With no growth in the second half we should make 60p eps.

The above is in my opinion FAR to cautious. Just how much we exceed last years second half is open to discussion as the year has just finished.

If we achieve the 60p eps and deduct the cash from the share price 550-150p =400p

We trade on just under 7 historic earnings with no debt.

As the company ramps up its D2C offering through expressco we should continue to see growth.
Bikes have been talked about and demand still outstrips supply but I am looking beyond this to the future.

I can see sales of £50m and a profit of £5 m within 2 years possibly much less.

That gives me x10 a £50m market cap and a target of £10.00 a share minimum.

To achieve this the cash may well be spent in developing the business hence I make no reference to it.

as such I remain a buyer of the shares .

tiger

[skwas1] 04/1/2021 09:11

Good question, I also hold MPAC along with TND and was thinking exactly the same.

[me55y] 03/1/2021 22:59

Hi All,

I have been on this thread for quite a while but have not made many comments. I have some share in TND, MPAC, EQT, EML and some not so wise shares in SYME, NSF, PFG.

TND have been great but i am looking at an exit strategy and just wanted to get an understanding or some advice as to what you forecast for these shares and at what point to sell. I have heard the target on these is £6 and £10 for MPAC but i have no idea...

Any advise would be greatly appreciated...many thanks

[castleford tiger] 30/12/2020 17:52

If you want to ask the CEO at Tandem trust me you will get the same answers.

I can only repeat what I was told and sought permission to post

tiger

[babscabs] 30/12/2020 17:34

I checked what the qty per 40 foot container is on complete fully assembled adult bikes , it is 120 pcs , this is from a Malaysian factory who are a major supplier to several of the UK's main brands plus a main Taiwanese supplier so that is the actual figure for prebuilt filly assembled adult bikes shipped in a box , both wheels on , handlebars turned .

Dealers then only need do a seem check and basically turn the handlebars.

Not sure in what form tandem are shipping their bikes could be front / rear wheel off maybe which would increase qty per container a bit , but by doing this direct sales are compromised which tandem have not yet done .

Either way order book is key , if shareholders could get an idea of forecast sales in 2021 based on the orders that are actually down , and scheduled to be delivered.

Orders that aren't down by now will not be here at best till very back end of year .
Think for me Frog bikes have done a great job and are number 2 in the UK , but Brompton are head and shoulders number 1. Absolutely in terms of UK bikes built I would say these numbers are correct.

[castleford tiger] 30/12/2020 11:24

thanks dean as the directors read the board they will know this now
cheers
tiger

[deanowls] 30/12/2020 09:22

Semi knocked down kit is SKD.

[castleford tiger] 30/12/2020 09:16

To answer the questions........... I went to Source.
There are no secrets or insider information in this post.

It varies but generally upwards of 300 for an adult bike and more for junior bikes.



• Standard bicycle import duty is 14% but bikes generally do not attract import duty from certain countries so sourcing is key.

• I have never come across the term SKD before. It is not cycling parlance to my knowledge.

• 200 bikes in a 40’ container is wrong unless they are perhaps 90%+ built and in a bigger box or a certain bike type e.g. electric. We try and ship 40’ high cubes which is more cost efficient.

• There are few mainstream manufacturers in the UK aside from perhaps Brompton and Pashley which target a very different customer to ourselves. To say Frog is one of the best is an interesting view.

• It has been widely reported again in the press that freight rates are now even higher. To be able to pass all of this on is a simplistic view but something I’m sure all suppliers are very conscious of.

• Lead times are indeed much longer for certain components and therefore logic would suggest any well run business would be taking this in account, as well as the sales order book, in their stock planning.

I think that puts the matter to bed with some facts.

Finally
If you can get stock in the next 12 months for sure you will sell it, inventory levels will also be lean ongoing as a result, so lean stock, high sales and full margin sales should literally spit out cash to shareholders

This is an interesting view and I am sure made a few Tandem Directors smile.

Tiger

[babscabs] 29/12/2020 15:34

One the bike side of Tandem's business it is simply going to be about their ability to get stock . There is a total bunfight now going on in the industry with hugely increased orders across the world, lead-times are crazy , velo saddles one of the largest saddle manufacturers are quoting 2 years , Shimano are reportedly over a year , Kenda tyres over a year .

If you can get stock in the next 12 months for sure you will sell it, inventory levels will also be lean ongoing as a result, so lean stock, high sales and full margin sales should literally spit out cash to shareholders .

The pivotal question is thus what is the historic order book like , orders to arrive in the next 8 - 12 months should have been placed back in early summer , with this information it would pretty easy to calculate what the next 12 months will deliver.

This defines the trading for 2021 , order book should be done and dusted and selling bikes in 2021 is pretty much shooting fish in a barrel, it all depends on whether the buyers/board had the foresight and balls to committ to their orders 6 months ago .

If they did all great , if they did not then no chance to catch up.

[davidosh] 28/12/2020 23:50

Mrs Waldron has added nearly 50k

[davidosh] 28/12/2020 23:47

I am sure Tandem will be able to pass on any additional freight costs to the trade as all suppliers will be in the same boat (no pun intended or maybe it was lol)
Additionally the number of bikes will depend on size and a mixed container with childrens bikes will no doubt provide space for 50% more.

Is anyone checking retail prices of new bikes....I suspect they are increasing by at least the same amount and there will still be demand so margins unlikely to be affected. Dollar exchange rate needs watching too.

[harrogate] 28/12/2020 09:46

Many thanks for that info - pretty significant cost increase

[babscabs] 27/12/2020 20:16

It is circa 120 adult bikes "bike in a box" requiring no assembly ie in the biggest boxes . Tandem probably ship what is called SKD (semi knock down) so should be circa 200 bikes per 40 foot . Thats probably a circa 30 quid per bike "penalty" as long as shipping rates stay high .

Complete bikes are subject to duty at circa 15% and that also applies to SKD , UK assemblers the ones that are left will benefit from both shipping less air and a duty rate of 4.7% so there could and probably should be a swing back to some UK assembly which is not a bad thing. Certainly make Boris happy hopefully .

I don't think tandem do any UK assembly, there aren't many UK assemblers left as Raleigh no longer assemble.

Brompton and Frog both assemble in the UK and are probably by far the two best bicycle companies in the UK at the present time .

On the plus side GBP v USD looks set to improve so that is a counter to the freight penalty so recent costings may well stay level .