Tandem Share Discussion Threads

[gabrielsant] 22/1/2021 18:32

I think CT is probably referring at what you can read about 1000 comments ago here. Lots of things have changed, but PE still undeniably low considering the 6 month growth.now if this is bad or good is probably a point of view. For a ciclical company during the best momentum should have a PE much higher than that, a PE 8 is for a depressed stock especially in today's time. I believe that if someone doesn't see this and the next 1-2 years as a good moment for the company, that moment will probably never come soon, so he should never invest here probably for a while.probably a strong statement, but it's my questionable view. With at least another year orizon I'm not looking for better time. Buying the whole company for 23 millions seems a good deal today. I'm waiting for more trustworthy comments as much as you. Hope you can find some usefulnes in it.

[castleford tiger] 20/1/2021 08:23

Morning
Jupiter were here till taken out last January.
Private Equity been and are still looking at this.

Will reply in full tonight
Tiger

[speny] 19/1/2021 21:13

Hi Guys, I'm not currently invested here, but this company recently popped up on my radar. What with the huge rise in bike sales last year, plus the growing popularity in e scooters, and not being able to walk down a high street without having to dodge people on mobility scooters, they must have increasing demand for products. Saying that H1 revenues are showing just a 6% increase, although profit had shot up.

I had been through their results, but could not find a breakdown of product sales, apart from some figures for goodwill, it all looks to be grouped together. Has anyone seen or found a separate breakdown of products they could direct me in, it would be much appreciated.

One thing which would definitely help their online presence and likely sales, is upgrading their websites, they look really dated. From what I could find, I believe that is something they will be focusing on this year. One thing I did find a little odd, all the major shareholders are just private investors, who hold almost 39% of stock, not a single investment fund holds any stock by the look of it. I take it they are not big on investor presentations?

When looking for comparisons, I found Hornby have similar revenues although look to be loss making, yet have an Mcap of £110m compared to Tandems £25m, so either Hornby are over valued or Tandem are under valued?

Also

[castleford tiger] 18/1/2021 14:22

4421 is a post best ignored but its a free world et al.

I remain a buyer but getting the stock in a meaningful amount is difficult.

tiger

[someuwin] 18/1/2021 10:32

Soaring shipping costs are likely to cause a bounce in the cost of trampolines in the UK this summer, according to one games retailer.

James Owen, owner of Outdoor Toys, says high transport costs and port congestion may mean larger toys such as swings, trampolines and climbing frames will be more expensive.

Trampoline prices could soar by 40-50%, he told BBC 5 Live's Wake Up to Money...

[gabrielsant] 16/1/2021 14:05

I certainly respect and consider your opinion, but 40% seems to me a little bit large, get a bike it's a good way to lowering pollution, keeping healthy, and lightening public transport and thus intensive therapy. Even looking at the money I think helping the bike industry by the gov is a good way to spend less in therapy. And even without help, if I can't afford a car I would go to work on bike instead of Uber or tube.Like I said we need it. So at a possible desease "price up" a possible solution "gov's help". Too much demand is the best problem I can have, not so big to makes me sell my share. Unfortunately I wasn't here before Jun, so I don't know if most of the bikes were already out of stock like now,"Im' sure most of you can answer at this question"if not is a really good sign, with availability we would have smashed 1 eps for sure. Btw there is something on e-commerce yet,there's pre order. In the worst case scenario we have a cut eps because of this, well if than you have a bright 2021, dividend.. It's not the end of the world, I buy more. As long as people want or need bikes I'm bullish,selling too early is almost as bad as entry too late. Of course we don't know who is right, there is no certainty, so I can only say that if I were in you I would jump in asap

About the price, and brand, I think we sell at most what it could be compared to a good quality/price citycar, if I have in mind to buy a Fiat panda, I'm not gonna end up buying a Ferrari just becouse price of cars raised. Than I would like to put in light that we sell home products, toys, during stay home era.

[davidosh] 16/1/2021 01:22

Indonews.....You have not posted here for six months and your last prediction would have badly hurt shareholders if they had given up on Tandem as you suggested then as the share price was well below £3.00 in July. Just so you remember what you said....

Indonews - 27 Jul 2020 - 13:02:27 - 4150 of 4422 Tandem Thread - TND

This could be taken as negativity, or just plain fact, im just stating as fact, they have no stock. They always manage stocks tightly and take minimal risks, i am just highlighting that for you guys expecting huge dividends and a huge share price spike you are likely to get your fingers burned very badly.

---------

Thankfully for me anyway I have continued to be a shareholder and certainly after 15 years of being one I was unlikely to give up at the point where sales and indeed profits were going to put the company in a great position. You will have seen the final results for 2020 year end and I for one expect even better results this year.

Tandem are not just a bike company and there is high demand for all their products and that certainly includes bikes. When there is demand it is obvious that suppliers will be able to pass on any price increases so I think it is ony important to know there is still the supply needed to satisfy customers.

I am happy to listen to any more information you have....but just facts relating to Tandem please and telling people to sell out ASAP is rather a strong message so you should not be throwing it around lightly.

[indonews] 15/1/2021 22:46

I'd sell out ASAP at these levels, tandem will be shot with 20 to 40% cost increases on bikes- their brands will not sustain the higher prices and not to mention the lead times on many bike components stretching to 14 months plus.

[gabrielsant] 15/1/2021 20:45

Exactly, so if I have understood right your calculations, after a crazy growth over the first 6 months, we should double with a modest 15/20% growth compared to the 2019 result right? And considering that people are still willing to pay 10 pe despite the known crazy growth during the well season 2020. Anyway I'm bullish for this year, I expect some incentive from the government towards bicycle and clean transport in general as we have done in Italy with the so called "eco bonus" , it was like 500 euro free for bikes e-scooters. I have been to some big stores this summer and the bicycle sector was plundered. It was esteemed 350.000 vehicles sold under the eco bonus 120 millions of euro. And we probably will do another for 2021. We live in a social media era, even without incentive I believe demand will be sustained for at least another year. I'm from a small town so we didn't get the eco bonus, last summer seemed Amsterdam here. I see lot of good purposes looking to 2021, for the rest we are in the hands of god. Sorry if this was not 100% specific about tandem but I think it was pertinent about the opportunities for 2021

[castleford tiger] 15/1/2021 17:39

DCF is an interesting way and I use it with Caveats.

The EPS this year should be between 60 /70p .

Using 10x that =650p

There is also 6/8 m in cash so 1.20 to 1.60 a share.

that gets me to 750 to 810p

However I assume we spend the cash developing the D2C part of the business to grow this to a profit of 5m a year and EPS 100p x 10 = £10.00 a share.

The bicycle business will fall back to normal next year.

Headwinds are increase in costs of goods due to shipping etc.
Tailwinds are we can now buy without the EU tariffs on bicycles.

Lots to go for here.
tiger

[gabrielsant] 15/1/2021 13:20

My question is, is that right that the problem is just satisfy the high demand for bike? If it is right, a pe of 8 on stock that even miss the last quarter its really conservative. If that is true I'm not concerned about the higher cost, brexit, or container or wathever. But of course is more than important to take it in consideration

[gabrielsant] 15/1/2021 12:38

Just do a discount free cash flow using the average growth of the last 5 years, Than I looked at how much equity increase over the years and compare how much money I'm paying for it. I also gave a look at the return of capital employed. I do it really approssimative, like trying to understand who is the fattest in the room without actually weight him. But I'm probably considering a lot of demand in the future. Like a said you certainly know the business better than me, and when I have questions I would like to know also from you here. I just tried at most to be conservative for an entry point, and not to be for an exit. So yes, dfc seems really good :) I also took into account the possibility of a higher pe due to the hig demand. If people think that this year demand is high, pe should be higher than that, you get 10 just doubling the pe with the actual eps. If this was an American hot stock it would be worth already 50, look at peloton.

[castleford tiger] 15/1/2021 12:32

explain your numbers to me please

tiger

[gabrielsant] 15/1/2021 12:00

I believe even paying 10 there is space for good profit. I know that it's not wise timing the price but I believe it could reach 10 by march. If someone would pay me 10 for say goodbye forever I wouldn't accept 10 today. We have the same target but I don't consider it an exit point.

Putting aside the quantitave aspect of financial, "they are fantastic" and you guys are better than me in analyzing it . Demand for bikes it's huge, with people staying home and working from home, demand for staying home products it is going to stay. During pandemic we all want to be more healthy, more green. I don't see already good investment in electric car. I feel more comfortable with bikes and electric scooter. Company is doing great, I believe in the progect and in the management, I'm sure they'll do well as they have done this year. Considering the situation price drops are a good opportunity if we look forward. I believe this is one of the best companies to invest today, they cover all the important aspects of a good investment , and last not list, we invest in products that make people happier and healthier, I have never seen a time when we need more of it.

[castleford tiger] 14/1/2021 16:04

Not sure if anything better is on the market tbh
The £1 fall just adds more profit
I am biased however
Target remains £10

[hpcg] 14/1/2021 10:52

Yes, I would say fear over container rates, port delays and import issues in general. Then we have the usual issue of the spread and liquidity. I'm holding because I would be adding if I didn't have a better use for my cash.

[bwm2] 14/1/2021 10:24

No newsflow, no research?

[skwas1] 14/1/2021 09:49

Any idea on the reason for the recent weakness in TND share price?

[cwa1] 14/1/2021 09:15

Halfords have issued their trading update this am:-



FWIW:-

Cycling LFL growth of +35.4% driven by continued strength in Adult Mechanical, e-bikes and e-scooters, despite global container shortages and port congestion impacting availability

and

Improved Cycling profitability, on track to exceed our target of improving Cycling gross margin by 300bps in FY21

[castleford tiger] 12/1/2021 12:53

had a successful morning and bought a few lots under the £5 mark
the last lot being 1250
still looking for more

tiger

[bwm2] 11/1/2021 12:50

As usual delayed reporting

[gabrielsant] 11/1/2021 12:48

I tried 700p at 500 while it was around 455 but nothing, you have made an affair at that price,

Now I have done at 490, I suppose degiro didn't help :)

[shanklin] 11/1/2021 12:41

Bought 1.5k at 471. 3.75k were available. Price started moving up thereafter... ...long may that continue

[bwm2] 11/1/2021 12:41

I was going to add to day in any case and pleasantly surprised to be able to do so at this level

[my retirement fund] 11/1/2021 12:25

How many shares do directors own and how many have they been buying in recent years? Always follow the directors imo.