Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 13/1/2021 14:03

And also often a sign that stock is scarce....as is being proven :o))

[bones] 13/1/2021 11:50

Along the lines of “... get me 10 grand’s worth. Don’t care what price...”!

[rivaldo] 13/1/2021 11:22

Good to see a 19k buy at 52p this morning, a full 1p above the 51p published offer price. Usually a good sign.

[longshanks] 11/1/2021 14:56

I don't believe I have given any exposee, Pug.

The quote provided was about the NIO EP9 and its application of ST brakes. The comparison with Tesla was with respect to the application of Brembo braking using steel disks.

Both these pieces of information have been in the public domain for some time. Brembo even built a factory in Mexico to support supply to Tesla.

The Tesla S Plaid is believed to come with CC braking as standard. That is based on hearsay:

Confirmation of specification and any relevant supplier of such brakes has yet to be announced.

HNY by the way. Hope you are keeping well.

[pugugly] 11/1/2021 14:00

longshanks - excellent find - For me this is the first time I have een the "Tesla open secret" exposed in 3rd party print -

Should be circulated to all fund managers!!!!

[graham1ty] 11/1/2021 13:05

My only criticism of the Master Investor article.

“Surface Transforms services demanding fast cars, high performance motors, and even electric vehicles, writes Mark Watson Mitchell.”

We have to get away from being seen as some kind of exotic product, only for “demandingR21; cars, “high performance” motors. Paul Scott wrote along those lines last year, suggesting SCE brakes were only for super cars.

What we want is for them to be bog standard, winning contracts on bog standard cars. Of course they will be higher priced cars, to start, because of the economics. But we all hope that they will one day become the star in a “reasonably priced car”.

[knownowt] 11/1/2021 12:39

Thank you ao much, Fils. I knew that the name rang a bell somewhere in the far range of what passes for a brain these days!

[fillspectre] 11/1/2021 10:56

Well knownowt the rolling top banner of ST's website in part features a photo of the NIO EP9 breaking a lap record at the Nurburgring with the help of ST's brakes. So NIO definitely have a corporate awareness of ST's product. Fils

[knownowt] 11/1/2021 09:05

www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_NWVe8Vwl4

The NIO model ET7 was launched at the weekend and the link above is the presentation. Very impressive, and a real challenge to Tesla, in my humble opinion. 11 miutes in we are told that acceleration time to 100kmph is 3.9 secs (and it's a big car), we are then told that the car incorporates Brembo 4-piston high performance front brake calipers that brings the car to rest from that speed in 33.5m. It gives no information about discs but ....dare we hope?

By the way, for those that see the presentation through to the prices, the Sterling remnimbi exchange rate is #1 = Rmb 8.75

[bomber13] 10/1/2021 21:30

For me , the item of last week's trading statement that really resonated was the one that declared that the company foresaw higher than anticipated average selling prices , to the extent that the company raised its targeted turnover at full capacity from £50m to £75m , a 50% increase .

If I am not mistaken , ST's Knowsley plant has a current nameplate capacity of circa £20m from one operating cell , and this cell is roughly 60% filled by the present order book at over 60% margins . As declared , ST's pipeline of business is £50m , and there is space for 4 more cells costing between £7m and £10m each . According to the CEO's presentation in October 2020 , ST would normally be awarded a contract up to two and a half years before delivery of product , so , given it would typically take 18 months to construct a brand new cell , any capacity expansion can be easily accommodated within that period . Indeed , if the company did need to raise equity to facilitate such expansion , at least it can therefore be done from a position of strength rather than weakness . As stated in the trading update , current pro-forma net cash is £1.2m with Finncap forecasting cash positive earnings for the first time in the current year to end 2021 .

At 50p , the market cap is just £77m , and , in my humble experience , if a sensibly run company upgrades its revenue target by 50% without announcing any new contracts , and in the midst of a global pandemic , I would suggest that it's a pretty good time to take serious note .

[rivaldo] 10/1/2021 13:54

FYI, a new review by Mark Watson-Williams on Master Investor, concluding thus:



"The company’s shares, which are trading at around 50p, just a few pence short of their all-time High of 56.5p, could easily rise to over 65p, thereby valuing it at £100m.

This is serious money for a serious technology that has masses of profit-earning potential – there are loads of stocks out there with far higher valuations for less enticing prospects."

[fillspectre] 08/1/2021 17:31

Graham1TY fair point the 5th Jan '21 RNS did contain the detail on the ASP and it is good news. To capitalise on it we need new nominations to start rolling in - which I am sure they will. Longshanks does right also in pointing out the other piece of new concrete information the RNS contained - Rebecca's appointment. Seems to me you don't appoint an HR executive, where you didn't have one already, unless you are expecting to get them busy! Fils

[longshanks] 08/1/2021 13:22

Well put by both of you fils and G1TY. Thanks.

I am still minded that the company hasn't changed its guidance that the prospective pipeline indicates demand for 165,000 disks in 2025. Rebecca Hooper will have no shortage of work as they grow from ~19 employees to ~90 as part of that process.

[graham1ty] 08/1/2021 08:01

Fils, yes, a holding RNS, hopefully to support the share price above 50p and slow the inter-RNS slide.

However, should we not be discussing more the Average Selling Price ? One of the key factors in valuing a company is what control it has of its pricing. Will margins be inevitably eroded as they grow ? Will OEMs demand lower prices for volume orders ? Will SCE be able to stick its ground against bullying by OEMs ( or competitors) ? Can they continue to charge a premium price because of the higher quality product.

Well, the answer seems to be YES. And not just yes, but actually indicating prices up to 50% higher than previously thought. That is massively positive. We do not know the price SCE are charging for each disc, but up to now we have known total capacity was about 100,000 discs, and gross revenue at full capacity was stated as about £50m. You do not need to be a rocket scientist to work out that is £500 per disc. David has always said that all those numbers are not forecasts, but just illustrative, as in the right ballpark.

Well, we now have a better indication of full capacity revenue: £75m. They do not update the disc number at total capacity, and as they get smarter at production, learn as new Cells are built, hopefully 100,000 will get upgraded as well. But, that still suggests a disc price somewhere significantly north of the original figure. That has an immediate effect on margins, profits and therefore valuation. It has a knock on effect on payback time for each new Cell ( they say the £10m capex per Cell has not changed).

I hope I am right. They could not RNS “we have put our prices up by 50%”, but it might be “we have greater control on pricing than we thought, and the sales price is likely to be higher than investors thought”.

That is pretty positive ?

[fillspectre] 07/1/2021 23:35

Cheese666 - you are right the only thing that will significantly alter the share price is an RNS announcing a contract award. David Bundred knows this as much as anyone. The 5th Jan RNS was really just a holding RNS - just to let us all know that everything is well at ST. Bones - DB's "near future" is undefined. ST cannot accurately predict when the contracts will land hence they have stopped giving out more specific predictions. They told us this in Oct 2019. Near future could easily be three months. However it could be anytime - even next week. Fils

[fillspectre] 07/1/2021 23:19

Swiss Paul - yes once tail pipe emissions are cleaned up the next sources of vehicle particulate emissions are tyres (rubber chips and flicked up road debris) and brakes.
Carbon ceramic and conventional brakes don't provide regenerative braking. On an EV my understanding is that the conventional brake disc backs up the regenerative brake and is there primarily as the emergency brake. No matter how little the conventional brakes on an EV car are used they do need to be present as a safety feature. Hence the Porsche Taycan Turbo is sporting 16.5 inch carbon ceramic discs - see this article:-

hxxps://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/a28915025/porsche-taycan-huge-brakes/

The infrequent use of the conventional brake poses problems if it is a steel brake as remarked upon by Longshanks.

I have asked Kevin Johnson & David Bundred if an EV manufacturer could ever rely solely on regenerative braking - but there appears technical problems with this - mainly that regenerative braking varies with the level of battery charge.

I have also asked myself the converse question - with smart driving technologies might the overall amount of braking that needs to happen be reduced - and if that is the case might not an EV manufacturer leave out regen braking altogether and reduce the weight and number of components of an electric vehicle yet further. Just go with a CC brake on each corner. I don't know how much weight, complexity, cost and ongoing maintenance is required from regen brakes compared to what they gain in terms of range. Clearly at the moment their presence on EVs make sense in terms of returning power to the battery and protecting range.

Fils

[bones] 07/1/2021 16:57

Perhaps they should call them blockchain brakes. Guaranteed quadrupling of share price tomorrow.....

[amt] 07/1/2021 16:49

I liked the analysts longterm comment about it being a mult billion market. So huge potential aswell as upside based on existing deals

[quemaster] 07/1/2021 13:54

It was mentioned in a recent presentation how important it was to their customers that ceramic brakes discs still look good after use compared to rusting iron discs and the wheels being cleaner due to reduced dust particles from ceramics.

[bones] 07/1/2021 13:07

In September 2020, OEM8 (an EV manufacturer) committed to a 5 year, sole supplier contract for SCE CC brakes, at a possible £27.5M value for one single model, to commence mid-2021 (a very quick interval to SOP). Kevin Johnson, in recent Q&A, said there would be “more than one model” taken up in due course.

For me, this information tells me to have confidence that EV manufacturers will be seeking the best CC brakes in town. I look forward to the next announcement which David Bundred has just been quoted in the RNS as saying will be “...in the near future...”.

[graham1ty] 07/1/2021 12:47

Backwoods, the weight saving is so great that it can be used either a) to just replace the weight with more battery and extend range or b) to keep the weight reduction, and extend range. A win win.

EV buyers are going to focus on range as one of the key attributes ( though that is also a function of many other things, such as charging time).

Lastly, EVs are not cheap. As a % of the total cost, CC brakes vs iron discs, is not great.

[backwoodsman] 07/1/2021 12:28

Longshanks, I agree, but...the EV manufacturers have to consider the greater cost of ceramic brakes as being worthwhile. Whilst batteries are so expensive there could be a race to the bottom with the cheapest brakes possible being thrown into EV's as they are hardly used. However manufacturers of the higher end EV's will also appreciate the weight saving of ceramics. In the longer run, it might not be best for SCE turnover but could one expect CC brakes to be recycled from old EV's, refurbished and put into new cars? There really is that little brake use on my Tesla M3.

[condom2] 07/1/2021 10:02

Hopefully. Once the contracts roll in this won’t be an Aim company!

[swiss paul] 07/1/2021 09:54

fils, a lot of pollution emanates from tyres.

As an aside I 've not really investigated regenerative braking but do we have any backup that SCE's are a better producer of regen braking power than say a normal brake?