Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[king suarez] 15/1/2022 16:51

"The other thing I believe will happen is the US$ will soon start to lose ground and the currency equation here needs consideration"

That alone could be huge for STCM if the currencies begin to revalue in KZT favour..

[mattjos] 15/1/2022 15:46

Inflation common now across the world .. it's about keeping your selling prices rising ahead of the cost inflation inputs.The other thing I believe will happen is the US$ will soon start to lose ground and the currency equation here needs consideration

[king suarez] 15/1/2022 14:28

Don't disagree MJ, just saying that whilst STCM is showing excellent revenue growth in KZT terms - this is in tandem with high domestic inflation, rising admin, selling and transportation prices.

Net effect has been a small increase in USD earnings, so far - but not along the same growth trajectory as gross revenues.

The yield is still excellent and I expect/forecast 5p dividend (hopefully - based on cash flows we know and the 'paused' interim dividend) which is more than tasty.

Fair value is certainly closer to £1 than 40p, but.. the market for whatever reason is not convinced, so if you like a good income play - buy more!

[mattjos] 15/1/2022 13:42

Everyone obsessing about Nominal Interest Rates recently rising in the UK to 0.25% but, with inflation running at 5.1%, the Real Interest Rate is NEGATIVE 4.85%

If your money is not achieving at least 4.85% per annum Growth or Yield then, your money is effectively decreasing in its purchasing power.

You'd have thought folk will be keenly hunting out shares with a minimum 5% Yield, just to 'stand still' but, Steppe is Yielding near double that.

Over time, equity prices tend towards circa 20 - 25 * the value of the Dividend being paid .. in this case 80p - £1.20 a reasonable target (according to what you believe the FY21 Dividend will be).

Current share price remains a nonsense but, am i really that bothered if the Yield comfortably exceeds the Real Rate of Interest and belief that eventually the market will come to it's senses and value STCM more appropriately?

[king suarez] 15/1/2022 13:26

The problem with those 2 graphs, MJ, is they do not take into account either the domestic inflation rate or the KZT/USD exchange rate - otherwise great progress being made.. still a bargain though.

[mattjos] 15/1/2022 13:01

Try and help a few others see the bigger picture here because the market seems much too fixated on a very brief period of disturbances in the country, rather than the impressive progress that Steppe Cement is making:





Share price chart over same time period:

[mattjos] 14/1/2022 18:03

Smack on £75k buy including deal costs

[mattjos] 14/1/2022 18:03

Late reported 178k buy from 08:20 this morning .. that explains the jump early-doors

[finctastic] 14/1/2022 15:11

Hopefully not fulfilled just yet. You never know could be the same big sellers that took this down getting back in.

[eggbaconandbubble] 14/1/2022 14:42

Judging by the ratio of buy to sell volumes and the price rise. Am I correct in assuming that there is a biggish buy order being fulfilled?

[11_percent] 13/1/2022 16:05

Good to see you willo101.

[fozzie] 13/1/2022 11:21

Glad to hear from you Wilo 👍

[finctastic] 13/1/2022 11:19

Glad you are OK Wilo. There was some concern you had got caught up in it.

[eggbaconandbubble] 13/1/2022 10:51

Will it be change for the better?
PS. Welcome back!

[wilo101] 13/1/2022 10:31

Things returning to stability here, but this is now a new country and there will be much change going forward after what happened, which was awful and shocking.

[aleman] 13/1/2022 10:28

I make it that sales bounced back to +18.7% in Q4 after being +8.4% in Q3 and 21.8% in H1. It looks like there could have been some capacity constraints in Q3 that held back growth. Last year, Q3 was 35.9% of FY revenue and this year was 33.4%. Growth has bounced back in the weaker Q4 from 19.9% of last year to 20.3% this year. Costs seemed to be pretty well under control so this extra revenue in a weak quarter might help margins. My gut feeling is they will improve for the full year. Anyone got any suggestions how costs and margins might have gone? Buying the fleet of rail wagons might have helped a bit.

[elpirata] 13/1/2022 09:59

another solid year in the bag with the emphasis on the expanding Kazak construction market as has previously been noted on here, results should underpin a comfortable 4>5p dividend.
If they were go for incremental expansion of production facilities, the capex has to come from distributable profits which would impact the divi, so Im happy with the proposed measured expansion...'if it aint broke dont fix it'

[eggbaconandbubble] 13/1/2022 09:40

Taking a simplistic view. It appears that if they increased production capability they would increse revenue, profits. And maybe reduce unit costs.

But why only by 5%???

[king suarez] 13/1/2022 09:37

No visibility to predict demand for 2022, yet they are continuing capex in order to increase production by 5%?

[jailbird] 13/1/2022 07:57

There is a cautionary note here, otherwise all good

"We are in the period of lowest sales of the year, and the directors do not believe they presently have sufficient visibility on economic matters to make an accurate prediction on demand for 2022."

[mattjos] 11/1/2022 23:30

"On Tuesday Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced that Russian peacekeeping forces which began entering the restive country late last week will initiate departure in merely two days.

"The main mission of the CSTO peacekeeping forces has been successfully completed," Tokayev informed Kazakhstan's parliament. "In two days' time, a phased withdrawal of the CSTO united peacekeeping contingent will begin. The withdrawal process of the contingent will take no more than 10 days,” he added."

The United States later in the day said it "welcomed" the announcement, via the news wires:

STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESPERSON SAYS WELCOMES KAZAKH PRESIDENT TOKAYEV'S ANNOUNCEMENT THAT CSTO FORCES HAVE COMPLETED THEIR MISSION IN KAZAKHSTAN

Back smart-quick to the Ukraine border, i'd imagine.

Whole thing is a flash in the pan & has not worked out the way the Yanks had hoped for.
15-0 to Russia, again.

Back to Steppe … was a great, brief & final, chance to buy more under the truly ludicrous price of 40p

[finctastic] 11/1/2022 20:10

I think they have wrote that whilst drunk. Comparable leaders? They shared the same barber perhaps, anything beyond that requires some imagination.

[zangdook] 11/1/2022 16:16

They haven't explained how they think Khrushchev is a parallel for Tokayev. Are they trying to say he's the successor to a long-time ruler therefore he's going to build houses? That's an extraordinarily feeble argument.