Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[golden prospect] 24/7/2024 22:18

https://astanatimes.com/2024/07/g7-countries-ready-to-invest-200-billion-in-central-asian-infrastructure/

[goldry] 19/7/2024 15:46

Thanks for the explanation. I did know it was an estimate, but assumed (incorrectly) that it was confirmed at that level when it was paid. Also assumed (incorrectly) that an RNS would have been issued with the actual amount, when known. Just seemed a bit strange that it's taken so long to correct.

[goldry] 19/7/2024 09:28

Thanks for your response, always good to know you're not alone. I have asked IG for more detail, I'll post if it's useful

[zangdook] 19/7/2024 09:21

Goldry
same, but I think it's worth the occasional thing like this as the price of IG always paying up at the start of business on payment day, where other brokers sometimes withhold cash for as much as a week or more.

[wilo101] 19/7/2024 09:17

As the RNS made clear, there is no "dividend" issue since pending the restructuring what is needed to be paid our and returned to shareholders can be done by further capital returns, no problems.

[goldry] 19/7/2024 08:32

Anyone else had their capital repayment adjusted down from 15p to 14.6984p. Just seen this transaction appear without any notice in my IG account.

[tag57] 12/7/2024 19:10

I would have thought most PIs will be waiting to see if the dividend payment process gets resolved before jumping in.
I am tempted to average down but will probably push more money into some of my O&G investments that have no issues paying out good dividends atm.

[danmart2] 12/7/2024 18:44

Nice update

[aleman] 12/7/2024 17:34

Trades suggest the market has missed the update completely apart from the 10:10am 100k buy reported 2 hours late. Was there only one person awake here?

It's well below a solid NAV and looks likely to be significantly profitable and cash generative in H2. When that cash gets distributed is another matter but they have said they are trying to restructure to deliver it.

[fozzie] 12/7/2024 17:17

Agree Aleman, the update read fairly positive to me as well, I’m guessing most people missed it with it being a Friday, summertime and issued mid morning. Big question for me is do I average down now?

[aleman] 12/7/2024 17:12

The update sounds very promising. National market recovering since the end of May. Pricing expected to improve. Market share up to 17% at the end of H1 from 11.5% in Q1 and 13.6% in H1. STCM sales volumes expected to be ABOVE 2023 (after -3.9% in H1 and -18% in Q1) in an expected flat national market (after -1.6% nationally in H1 and -12% in Q1).

This actually sounds like a very good H2 is in prospect with much higher volumes expected (selling down stock, presumably) on moderately higher prices expected.

Why has the share price not gone up? This looks about as good as could be hoped and much better than H1. Although H1 is only likely to return a very modest profit, H2 looks set to be quite significant - though getting a significant temporary boost from the sale of the excess clinker stock built up.

[purplerain2] 12/7/2024 14:18

Did not get a link sent after requesting.

[zangdook] 12/7/2024 11:05

Did anyone attend the AGM? I was planning to dial in but in the end I wasn't able to.

[danmart2] 09/7/2024 18:24

My friends in Kazak at the start of August, he’s meeting with a few investors and construction firms, I will get an update on the cement market.

[1knocker] 09/7/2024 12:39

There is no reliable soursc of news about the war that I am aware of.

If you listen to the western mainstream media, it is one stupendous victory after another for Ukraine, interspersed with retaliatory Russian terror attacks on civilians, and Russia is fast running out of troops and munitions.

On the other side, there are equally biased private media outlets which assert that Russia is bleeding Ukraine white, that the Ukrainians of military age are fleeing conscription, and that Russia is winning.

All we know is that the conflict has now been going on about as long as WW1, and that territorial movement on the ground is likewise measurable in WW1 terms. I expect that when we do eventually see 'peace', it will be a WW1 peace, ie a half time breather before hostilities are resumed. Not a very appealing prospect.

[danmart2] 08/7/2024 12:23

No idea about the war

In terms of Steppe, as previously mentioned this summer is fairly critical both short term and long term trends.

[plasybryn] 06/7/2024 12:10

Apparently TW seems to believe the Russians are making progress in Ukraine and the war won't last much longer. Then the West will rebuild the Ukraine meaning massive demand for cement. He thinks sanctions will also be dropped and Russian influenced stocks will respond positively. Or something like that. Trump Alsop believes he will end the war very quickly with a moderate compromise so perhaps in 12 months time things will indeed look better.
Just trying to be optimistic!

[wilo101] 05/7/2024 18:41

April to October is and has always been what really counts due the extreme continental climate, nothing new prices and demand crescendo in July and August as lack of supply hits as demand soars

[aleman] 05/7/2024 17:10

If they made a net $4.5m profit in H2 during a "brutal price war", then they should make a lot more when it ends..

As I understand it, sales WOULD be down if they choose to stockbuild longer life clinker rather than grind and sell bagged cement (that has a short shelf life and won't store) into a weak market. It's a change/evolution of policy from last year, helped by investment in a new bagging line. Expanded bagging capacity should mean running lines at efficient capacity for a bit longer and store more clinker, only grinding and bagging in summer months when prices are stronger. It's a lower cost method of production but produces bigger swings in working capital. Lower sales and lower profit in winter. Higher sales and higher profit in summer. Bigger stocks in between. Only possible if you have the grinding and bagging capacity. Otherwise you have to run plant less efficiently and less profitably over the year, taking the weaker winter prices and having less to sell at stronger summer prices.

Why not just wait for the stronger months' figures (April and May have been a bit better nationally and June weather decent) instead of speculating that there is some other bad news lurking when the bagging investment might be expected to produce the trend outlined by the company?

[return_of_the_apeman] 05/7/2024 16:37

They are caught between a rock and a hard place. Input costs rise with inflation but they have struggled to pass this cost onto their customers as it reduces their market share. Margins and market share are key, if stockpiling and selling later in the year was such a good strategy surely they would have done this every year before. The key is to know why their competitors have been able to sell at lower prices.

I am not going to cast dispersions on our uk cement market, but if you look you will see when one moves their prices up, others follow etc. In Kazakhstan the cement prices don't seem to have risen enough to protect margins for all. Perhaps there has been some brutal price war in the Kazakhstan cement market which is now over or perhaps some will have to go bust but more supply is coming online which does not bode well.

On the plus side Steppe added the following to the front page of their website a while back, which should mean they would be able to outlast a price war and then pickup more market share, however I would have expected that they would still be able to get their product out at a good margin, but during one half of a year they only made 100k and have stockpiled since

"Steppe Cement enjoys significant competitive advantages being one of the lowest cost producers in Kazakhstan and the strategic location of its plant enables quick and reliable service to our customers."

I sold out so you can put this down as the reason I am bearish or you can ask plenty of questions around competitors, input costs and margins

If the statement on the website is true, which it should be then perhaps a period of improvement is already here or coming

Good luck all and no I am not Chris or Dart :-)

[dodger777] 05/7/2024 15:49

Is dart related to chriss by any chance 🙄

[the dart] 05/7/2024 15:36

The RNS in April, says they lost market share in a market than is falling, in first months of 2024, they lost almost 10% market share, and that sales average selling prices had fallen on top of that, they go on to confirm sales are down 23%, nothing mentioned since. If anyone read a different RNS, then okay, but the RNS was issued by Steppe management on the LSE, I can only use that, I trust people have actually read it properly as sounds like that is not the case.

They have mostly fixed costs, this will not produce a profitable outcome, not a surprise if costs rise, market falls and market share falls, they compound it by their complaints of high transport costs, which they emphasis as "significant" so maybe a small loss is too optimistic.

No cash, and now debt, as is highly likely, amplified by what they intimate, that they not prepared to sell at "depressed prices", they are prepared instead to increase inventory even more, does not support a great market cap, so I don't think 10m is an unreasonable estimate based on disaster of an April RNS, and subsequence radio silence.

By my estimation for sure they are burning cash, for how long will be the question and how they turn it around, if there is more info to help, then great, so far nothing that helps explain that 23% drop in sales and alarming choice to increase inventory still further, nothing else maters in my book, no one has explained it and no one seems to care, save harp on about results we knew already, and I doubt Steppe management can or will either, good luck, if you hold, but I don't see any chance it will play out as you expect short term, it will be more likely ugly.

[tigerbythetail] 05/7/2024 13:25

Lots of silliness being posted on this board now. I just love the suggestion of a £10m market cap (6p per share) for a profitable asset-rich company that has paid out way more than that in dividends and capital returns over the last few years!
This kind of nonsense usually pops up when AIM shares hit a long term low, so maybe it's time to consider buying...