Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[jeanesy] 11/10/2021 10:09

A few nice buys this morning. Lets hope we can move onwards and upwards from here

[zangdook] 08/10/2021 12:12

I might be able to let you have some for love, depending...

[eggbaconandbubble] 08/10/2021 11:06

You can't buy these in a reasonable size for love nor money. Price increase must be imminent.

[mattjos] 08/10/2021 09:15

All good, afaiac

[davr0s] 08/10/2021 08:16

I think they need to find someone who can write a proper RNS report. Talk about pithy. It's like someone has knocked it together after delivering cement all day long

[drdre] 08/10/2021 08:03

Revenues up by double digits LfL. Volume down 4% for Q3 up but up for 9 months 4% LfL.

A sales volume of 535,200 tonnes was achieved during the third quarter, a 4% decrease from the third quarter of 2020 due to prioritising price vs volume in the third quarter.

This sounds like it was a managed event.

TAM is growing strongly - Current estimate of the cement market for 2021 is 11.3 million tonnes or 24% above 2020, with Steppe Cement's market share at 14%.

Good update, however as I previously highlighted, dividend announcement is what I'm awaiting.

[jeanesy] 08/10/2021 07:47

third quarter results out. What do others make of them ?

[aleman] 03/10/2021 13:00

Market screener has recently altered the (only one broker) forecast dividend from 8c, 8c, 8c to 7c, 7c, 8c. So that's a 5.2p dividend and hopefully rising to about 6p.

[king suarez] 02/10/2021 19:33

3800 - possible, but my understanding is that near all free cash flow is to be returned to shareholders via dividends.

If you do the maths, then c5p or so matches the forecast free cash flow - after all, free cash flow is after tax, capex, debt payments - what else is there then to do with the money?

$19m free cash flow = £14m.
$17m free cash flow = £12.5m.

5p dividend on 219m shares = £11m

[3800] 02/10/2021 19:15

"robust looking numbers and appears a solid 10%+ dividend yield on offer" I have just looked at the numbers posted does any one else think that the dividend forecast may be a mistake? all the other numbers are in USD but the dividend forecast is 5.07p maybe it should read 5.07c that would be a small increase on this years and some how more likely.
please don't shoot the messenger, I hope it's correct myself
3800

[king suarez] 02/10/2021 18:37

Just curious how they forecast free cash flow $2m less in 2022, than 2021, despite forecasting an increase in earnings per share and a decrease in Capex - what exactly is eating into the free cash flow in this instance? - maybe a timing difference due to the lag on additional tax payable from 2021 profits, to be paid out in 2022?

Anyway, thanks for sharing - robust looking numbers and appears a solid 10%+ dividend yield on offer going forward from here. Not many companies offering that, without significant risk, whereas STCM are net cash positive.

[eggbaconandbubble] 02/10/2021 16:09

At a glance - repeat 'a glance' that looks like information overload!!!

I use stockopedia.

[mattjos] 02/10/2021 14:23

have a look here wilo:

[wilo101] 02/10/2021 13:30

what is Sharepad for the uninitiated?

[eggbaconandbubble] 02/10/2021 11:26

Just a tad more bullish than Stockopedia!

[mattjos] 02/10/2021 10:58

Thanks Wilo, Sharepad has been updated and shows:

[finctastic] 02/10/2021 09:27

Thanks Wilo.

[wilo101] 02/10/2021 08:47

As usual, written by VTB Capital in Moscow:[e-mail]

[wilo101] 02/10/2021 05:27

Latest VTB

[constable ken] 02/10/2021 02:55

That was rather repetitious. Did you come up with it yourself or cut and paste without crediting the writer?

[wilo101] 02/10/2021 01:27

Steppe Cement
1H21: Taking advantage of positive market
trends
Steppe Cement’s 1H21 financials reflected strong market trends, with
revenues and EBITDA increasing 17% and 25% YoY, respectively. We
expect this positive environment to continue to drive Steppe Cement’s
performance through the end of the year. Steppe Cement was cash
positive at the end of 1H21, and we expect that the company will
distribute approximately all of it FY21F net profit as dividends, which
implies a yield of 10% at the current share price. Having fine-tuned our
model, we are increasing our 12-month Target Price 11% to GBp 60,
which implies an ETR of 31%. Buy reiterated.
Strong 1H21. Steppe Cement’s 1H21 revenues were up 17 % YoY to
USD 39.5mn, supported by stronger sales volumes (up 10% YoY to 0.84mnt)
and higher average delivered prices (up 7% YoY to USD 47/t). The company
also saw a notable increase in profitability. EBITDA rose 25% YoY to
USD 13.5mn, with EBITDA margin adding 2pp YoY and reaching 34%. Net
profit rose 53% YoY to USD 6.2mn. As of the end of 1H21, the company’s
net cash was USD 4.4mn vs. USD 2.5mn at YE20. According to Steppe
Cement, as of 15 September, its financial debt (i.e. excluding lease liabilities)
stood at USD 5.6mn and cash was USD 10.5mn.
Forecasts revisions. Steppe Cement forecasts that the cement market in
Kazakhstan might reach 10.5-11mnt in FY21 (vs. 9.4mn in 2020). Such an
increase is mostly due to the recently observed construction boom supported
by the usage of personal pension funds for real estate investment. The
company also expects to maintain its 15% local market share and export 9%
of its volumes in 2021. This is broadly in line with our volume projections of
1.8mnt for 2021, which we leave unchanged. Our 2021F revenue and
EBITDA forecasts also remained broadly unchanged, while we increased our
2022-25F projections for revenues and EBITDA 4-8% and 4-13%,
respectively.
Dividends remain key attraction. We expect that Steppe Cement will
distribute almost all its FY21 net profit as dividends, which implies a 12-mo
dividend yield of 10% at the current share price. We model that this
distribution will take place in summer 2022F.
Valuation and Risks. We use a DCF model to derive our 12-month target
price (WACC 13%, TGR 0%). We decreased the discount rate from 13.8% to
13% by fine-tuning the Kazakhstan risk premium. The key downside risks
remain as follows: lower dividends, increasing competition, and potential
overcapacity in Kazakhstan and the neighbouring countries, as well as the
overall macro environment and cement market trends

[finctastic] 01/10/2021 10:37

Nice work Rahosi

[rahosi] 01/10/2021 10:03

Yesterday mine was an ISA purchase (already fully 2021 funded). Small part of my RAVP divi yesterday. The 925 @44.75.

[finctastic] 30/9/2021 16:23

How many more are? Certainly showing alot of red for little move in share price