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09/7/2020
08:45 | leopoldalcox: Statement is pretty cautious about the immediate future. Reason for the share price fall?
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09/7/2020
08:22 | jailbird: And it is down There is no share price appreciation here . Ppl who bought higher and many have , will have higher averages So making a paper loss on that but decent dividend payments have made up for it Need share price appreciation and dividend Will the rise get sold into again at the expense of dividend chasers ?
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27/6/2020
09:49 | kenmitch: Haven’t checked them all Constable Ken but some of your supposed 12% dividend payers are no longer paying any dividend. Some are even struggling to survive their coronavirus hit. e.g Carnival. Travel agents like TUI have taken a big hit too. Ditto shopping centre REIT, Hammerson. Evraz has paid a very big dividend but a cut is now very likely. Could be that all your list will cut or cancel?
Steppe otoh have confirmed their intention to pay a 3p dividend so their over 12% yield is genuine, and as long as share can within a year be sold at or above the current 24p price a great buy at current price. Could be share price upside too for capital gain on top!
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13/6/2020
08:30 | jailbird: Reading the results again Like for many Cos this year will not match , best forecasts or expectations Forward outlook is less positive .Reduced demand and we are seeing the affects of increased competition the Co mentioned few months back .I would say in terms of revenues and margins the Co has peaked .Domestic market consumption is constantly around 9 tonnes per year And exports have reduced .Rest of the year by reducing costs and with lower coal prices , Co will maintain profitability , reduce debt .Best hope it continues to pay a dividend , otherwise any interest we gave no will also die.Like I said , it will just be a dividend play again .The best hope for share price appreciation is indeed a bid by an interest party . . Will that ever happen ?
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10/6/2020
14:42 | jailbird: Over last couple of years , this has just become a dividend trade Take your dividend payment and run If the share price happened to run up too much before payment then ppl sell before dividend tooJust does not seem to have the interest to hold any gains
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22/4/2020
10:21 | jailbird: KS
Thankyou for that and reconfirming the financial state of things
It is the year after I am looking at as the market likes to look forward when pricing .
Share price has strugglesd to pass 40p+ with very good economics times and sentiment in that region and globally . Different times now and for at least another 12-24 months
We have to price that in . But for the positive believers who can look beyond that , then may want to add on this fall
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22/4/2020
08:59 | constable ken: Mattjos
The problem with comparing 2017 to 2019 is not just that you're cherrypicking data, but in 2019 the trajectory of the business was not the same as in 2017. Share price is not just a factor of present business performance, so those two years are not comparable on that basis. This is pretty basic, and you should be ashamed of yourself cherrypicking data to try to ramp an AIM stock which has brought you major losses after you bragged about buying "anywhere under 60p". You know there are plenty of suckers reading these boards. Business is slow for all of us, don't pick on the little guys.
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16/4/2020
11:28 | mattjos: Share price back to where it was in Spring 2018.
This looks a complete nonsense when you compare Prelim Results update for FY 2019 as compared to the one issued for FY2017:
Y/E 31.12.17 - Revs: KZT21.4m Sales Vol: 1.63mt Ave. Ex-Factory Price: US$33/t
Y/E 31.12.19 - Revs: KZT30.5m Sales Vol: 1.71mt Ave. Ex-Factory Price: US$39/t
Local Market Share was 17% in 2017 & 17.5% in 2019
Then if we look at 1st Q 2018 v 1st Q 2020:
Q1 2018 - Revs: KZT2.3m Sales Vol: 197kt Ave. Ex-Factory Price: KZT11,732/t
Q1 2020 - Revs: KZT4.0m Sales Vol: 235kt Ave. Ex-Factory Price: KZT16,970/t
The company paid 1p/share divi in June 2018 for the FY17 Results
On every metric, STCM is far ahead of where it was this time 2018 but, the share price remains the same. Construction may get pegged back for a month or so, but that just means the demand will spring back very fast into the summer months, when I expect there to be a clamour for cement & resulting rising prices.
Steppe management are doing absolutely the right thing in keeping the factory operating at capacity. If, given the current climate, it is an easy ask to defer principal debt payments for a couple of months then, so they should & in fact daft not to, afaic
Price here is all wrong & so I have been adding more at under 20p
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06/4/2020
17:50 | jeanesy: Share price continues to fall. Will be under 20p pretty soon it seems. Really cant see a dividend here. price action says it all really .. sadly :(
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13/9/2019
18:22 | wilo101: Steppe Cement
Zero net debt, all excess cash to
shareholders
Steppe Cement has performed strongly YTD, with its share price rising
44%. This was driven by a notable improvement in financial
performance, which allowed the company to bring its net debt to zero
as of 1H19 and to pay hefty dividends. Meanwhile, the market backdrop
could get tougher in the medium to longer term due to excess cement
capacity in Kazakhstan and shrinking export opportunities in
Uzbekistan. Therefore, we are turning more conservative and project a
flat-to-slightly-declining trend for EBITDA and net income from 2020.
Still, the company’s cash generation and low leverage imply dividend
yields at 14%, which is more than enough to justify our positive stance
on the stock, we believe. Our unchanged 12-month Target Price of
GBp 40 implies an ETR of 43%. Buy reiterated.
Well-prepared for potential headwinds. The recent favourable market
environment has helped Steppe Cement bring net debt to zero as of 1H19.
Even though net debt was again at USD 5.1mn in late August, this was due
to the distribution of USD 8.3mn as dividends, and we believe that the
number will be close to zero again by the end of the year. This makes Steppe
Cement well prepared for any potential headwinds that might result from
rising supply due to capacity expansion in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan: excess capacity. Kazakhstan’s cement capacity stands at
some 15mnt and is set to expand somewhat, which will likely send capacity
utilisation to the mid-sixties. Given our projected 2018-23F demand CAGR of
2% and shrinking export opportunities, this will likely increase pressure on the
domestic market and limit the ability of incumbents, including Steppe
Cement, to increase volumes or prices under our base case scenario.
Uzbekistan: shrinking opportunities. The projects to build some 15mnt of
new cement capacity on the top of the current integrated plant capacity of
some 9mnt would over the next couple of years likely close the local demandsupply
gap of 3-4mnt, even accounting for execution risks. We believe that
this would largely shut this lucrative export market for Kazakhstan.
Attractive dividend yields. It is our view that this worsening backdrop will
likely render meaningless any cash reinvestment or accumulation.
Meanwhile, Steppe Cement’s relative efficiency, especially vs. wet producers
(still one fifth of the total capacity in Kazakhstan), and low debt will probably
help defend its market share and generate stable positive cash flows. These
assumptions point to attractive potential dividend yields of some 14% in the
medium term – and even at a half of our EBITDA forecasts, Steppe Cement
would be able to return a 4-5% yield.
Valuation and risks. We derive our 12-month Target Price from a DCF
model (WACC 15.6%, TGR 2%). The key downside risks are lower
dividends, ‘irrational217; pricing by competitors, as well as the overall economic
environment and cement market trends.
Vladimir Bespalov, Equities Analyst
+7 495 663 46 51 // vladimir.bespalov@vtbcapital.com
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