| Date | Subject |
|---|
06/4/2020
17:50 | jeanesy: Share price continues to fall. Will be under 20p pretty soon it seems. Really cant see a dividend here. price action says it all really .. sadly :(
|
15/1/2020
08:09 | wilo101: How the share price can decline in light of these results, with an 8% increase in revenues, when the Group now, effectively has no debt from US$95m at the peak, and is the lowest cost and most efficient producer in the entire FSU escapes me, and with a pending 4p, possibly more, dividend paid this year for last escapes me.
But all for the good, as we can buy even more, and cheaply, given the fools and half-wits out there in the market.
|
01/1/2020
11:35 | mattjos: HNY to all STCM investors .... i think every reason to expect a good upward move in the share price this year based on the fundamentals & that could well be amplified as/when the US$ falls from grace
|
10/12/2019
12:05 | mattjos: taking its time but, the opportunity to purchase at 30p or under has been getting less & less frequent over the last 6 months.
4 weeks to go before the preliminary update on 2019 & by then I would be very surprised if there was stock going for anything under 40p.
From about this time in 2018, the share price went on to print over a 100% gain in the following 4 months
|
27/11/2019
19:58 | king suarez: I think 4p should be the conservative minimum dividend for 2019. I'm really hoping for 5p+ for 2019 and 6p+ for 2020.
Share price has to be doubling from here at least. I keep saying it! :)
|
13/9/2019
18:22 | wilo101: Steppe Cement
Zero net debt, all excess cash to
shareholders
Steppe Cement has performed strongly YTD, with its share price rising
44%. This was driven by a notable improvement in financial
performance, which allowed the company to bring its net debt to zero
as of 1H19 and to pay hefty dividends. Meanwhile, the market backdrop
could get tougher in the medium to longer term due to excess cement
capacity in Kazakhstan and shrinking export opportunities in
Uzbekistan. Therefore, we are turning more conservative and project a
flat-to-slightly-declining trend for EBITDA and net income from 2020.
Still, the company’s cash generation and low leverage imply dividend
yields at 14%, which is more than enough to justify our positive stance
on the stock, we believe. Our unchanged 12-month Target Price of
GBp 40 implies an ETR of 43%. Buy reiterated.
Well-prepared for potential headwinds. The recent favourable market
environment has helped Steppe Cement bring net debt to zero as of 1H19.
Even though net debt was again at USD 5.1mn in late August, this was due
to the distribution of USD 8.3mn as dividends, and we believe that the
number will be close to zero again by the end of the year. This makes Steppe
Cement well prepared for any potential headwinds that might result from
rising supply due to capacity expansion in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan: excess capacity. Kazakhstan’s cement capacity stands at
some 15mnt and is set to expand somewhat, which will likely send capacity
utilisation to the mid-sixties. Given our projected 2018-23F demand CAGR of
2% and shrinking export opportunities, this will likely increase pressure on the
domestic market and limit the ability of incumbents, including Steppe
Cement, to increase volumes or prices under our base case scenario.
Uzbekistan: shrinking opportunities. The projects to build some 15mnt of
new cement capacity on the top of the current integrated plant capacity of
some 9mnt would over the next couple of years likely close the local demandsupply
gap of 3-4mnt, even accounting for execution risks. We believe that
this would largely shut this lucrative export market for Kazakhstan.
Attractive dividend yields. It is our view that this worsening backdrop will
likely render meaningless any cash reinvestment or accumulation.
Meanwhile, Steppe Cement’s relative efficiency, especially vs. wet producers
(still one fifth of the total capacity in Kazakhstan), and low debt will probably
help defend its market share and generate stable positive cash flows. These
assumptions point to attractive potential dividend yields of some 14% in the
medium term – and even at a half of our EBITDA forecasts, Steppe Cement
would be able to return a 4-5% yield.
Valuation and risks. We derive our 12-month Target Price from a DCF
model (WACC 15.6%, TGR 2%). The key downside risks are lower
dividends, ‘irrational217; pricing by competitors, as well as the overall economic
environment and cement market trends.
Vladimir Bespalov, Equities Analyst
+7 495 663 46 51 // vladimir.bespalov@vtbcapital.com
|
07/9/2019
11:40 | mattjos: Assuming they 'smooth' the dividend with introduction of an interim this time around, at something between 1 - 1.5p then, i cannot see the share price staying below 40p.Common enough Share price / dividend value multiple is 25x ... once the dividend becomes more established and wider recognised ie. a 4% coupon on investment.Back in the 1980's 4% would not have been particularly appealing but, in the crazy world we now live in, where there are £Bn's shunted into the sidings earning a negative yield, i believe a 4%+ yield is hugely attractive & so a corresponding share price of over £1 looks entirely justified.OK, the company is unlikely to tick the necessary boxes for high growth & therefore most unlikely to draw the more volatile elements of 'the herd' but, it should draw the more steady members of the investment universe who can do the maths and see the longer-term compounding effects of the dividend on offer here. For that reason, share price progress may be more sedate but, the buyers likely much more 'sticky' for the long term & will reinvest the divi in to the stock.I'd be surprised if we are not at 75p+ by the time of the 2019 FY results & then £1.50 by the time of the 2020 FY results. That would be 300% capital appreciation, accompanied by 15%+ yield in approximately 20 months. Keep buying and be patient, afaiac.
|
18/8/2019
11:28 | novicetrade68: I agree, but it is very painful to see the last remaining quality London shares being subject to such misuse when investors, traders are constantly being, well, it seems like being fleeced, ie a 40% drop for no reason????????
STCM is selling more, STCM is benefiting from currency advantages, STCM is now paying 12% annual dividend, yet you look at the share price now and you get the impression that a person like David Lenigas, among many others, look correct in that MMs DO seem to screw everyone out of their holdings for a fixed amount of time, ie going (naked) short for 2-3 months, and then in the run up to the interims or results later they sell their complete extorted collection at 10%-15%-20%-25% additional margin to traders and investors, ideally on a spike....you know, along with supportive commentary on ADVFN & on the LSE chat site....and then they apparantly go short again for a fixed amount of time when no one is expecting it and then leave everybody incurring losses which increase every day and every week and every month, with no chance to make any return whatsoever...
This really now seems a recurring, annual pattern where the share price gets lower and lower everyday, and many many eventually sell their holdings when MMs seem in their fixed (naked) short period and manipulate the price down regardless.
|
05/4/2019
07:59 | wilo101: Buy (21 Sep 2016, 12:09 UTC)
Previous: Hold (14 Jul 2016, 13:07 UTC)
Target price, 12mo: 40.00
Last price: 33.00 (05 Mar 2019, close)
Expected total return: 27%
Upside, 12mo: 21%
DY, next 12mo: 6.1%
Share price performance, 12-mo
1M 3M 12M 3Y
Price 40% 26% 57% 111%
Price relative 45% 24% 70% 46%
ADTV (USD mn) 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
Key financial highlights
Fiscal year end 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F
P/E, x 38.5x 7.2x 7.0x 6.3x
EV/EBITDA, x 6.1x 4.0x 4.0x 3.6x
P/B, x 0.8x 1.1x 1.3x 1.3x
FCF yield, % 17.6% 12.5% 17.3% 16.7%
DY (ords), % 6.2% 8.3% 14.2% 16.0%
Net sales, USD mn 66 82 85 90
EBITDA, USD mn 11 20 24 26
Net income, USD mn 1 10 14 15
Net sales, chg 25% 25% 4% 6%
EBITDA, chg 17% 90% 20% 7%
Net income, chg 600% 686% 40% 13%
EPS(ords), USD 0.0056 0.044 0.062 0.070
DPS (ord.), USD 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.07
BPS(ords), USD 0.27 0.30 0.34 0.35
EBITDA margin, % 16.1% 24.5% 28.4% 28.6%
ROE, % 2% 15% 18% 20%
Net Debt, USD mn 17 11 0 (2)
ND/EBITDA, x 1.6x 0.6x 0.0x (0.1x)
Net int. cover, x 1.5x 10.2x 18.9x 25.4x
Multiples and yields are calculated based on period-average prices
where available.
Source: Bloomberg, Company data, VTB Capital Research
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
STCM LN, GBp, lhs
Relative to RTS Index, %, rhs
Steppe Cement
Positive markets, lower leverage imply
more upside
Despite the recent stock appreciation, we believe that Steppe Cement
still offers attractive value upside, which could be realised through
hefty dividend distributions. In particular, we have revised upward our
forecasts on positive price and demand trends, which are largely
underpinned by the recently opened export opportunities in Uzbekistan.
Along with the continuing reduction of leverage, these considerations
underlie a 21% increase in our 12-month Target Price, to GBp 40, which
implies an ETR of 27%. Buy reiterated.
Forecast revisions. Steppe Cement’s 2018 cement sales increased 6% YoY to
1.7mnt, while average ex-works cement prices rose 23% YoY to KZT 13,354/t (or
16% YoY to USD 39/t, based on the average exchange rate for the year).
Meanwhile, the delivered price was up 18% YoY to USD 48/t. We believe that
these upbeat trends had also a positive impact on profitability, which underlies
increasing of our 2018 estimates. We also believe that the outlook for this year
remains favourable, largely helped by export opportunities in Uzbekistan. As a
result, we take a more positive view on the medium-term trends. At the same
time, we are more cautious on the long term, as the current cement shortages in
Uzbekistan are to be closed through new plant construction, while the recent
capacity additions in Kazakhstan might weigh on the local market.
Leverage continues to decline. Our forecasts imply that Steppe Cement’s net
debt declined further, to USD 11mn, at the end of 2018 (vs. USD 17mn at the end
of 2017), with the 2018 net debt/EBITDA of 0.6x. We believe that Steppe
Cement’s net debt might approach zero by the end of 2019, although much will
depend on dividend distributions. Nevertheless, given Steppe Cement’s limited
capex requirements, low leverage and good cash generating ability, we expect
hefty dividend payouts in the future.
Dividend remains the key attraction. Given the stock’s low liquidity, we believe
that dividends are the key attraction behind Steppe Cement’s investment case.
Our base-case scenario implies 2018 DPS at GBp 2, which implies a 6% yield.
Meanwhile, given the recent positive trends, we would not rule out that Steppe
Cement eventually distributes GBp 3, which would yield 9% at the current share
price. We also see a strong case for a notable increase in DPS in the future, as
the company is likely to distribute most of the available cash to shareholders, in
our view.
Valuation and risks. We derive our 12-month Target Price of GBp 40 from a
DCF model (WACC 15.5%, TGR 2%). Steppe Cement trades at fairly
undemanding 2019-20F EV/EBITDA multiples 3.6-4.0x and the 2019F
EV/capacity of USD 49/t, which imply large discounts to global peers. The key
downside risks are related to FX fluctuations, cement prices and competition, as
well as the overall economic environment and cement market trends.
Vladimir Bespalov, Equities Analyst
+7 495 663 46 51 // vladimir.bespalov@vtbcapital.com
|
05/2/2019
09:45 | wilo101: see our 14.01.19, post which reads as follows:
Subject: Kazakhstan || Steppe Cement - 4Q18 trading update; positive end to the year
Operating Results
Steppe Cement
4Q18 trading update; positive end to the year
Steppe Cement's 4Q18 trading update points to a positive end to the year and implies upside risk to our projections. We continue to see Steppe Cement's current valuation and the next 12-month dividend as attractive, with our 12-month Target Price of GBp 33 implying an ETR of 71%, including a 10% dividend yield.
Strong end to the year. According to Steppe Cement, its 2018 cement sales increased 6% YoY to 1.7mnt, while average ex-works cement prices rose 23% YoY to KZT 13,354/t (or 16% YoY to USD 39/t, based on the average exchange rate for the year). The numbers imply that despite negative seasonality, Steppe Cement managed to increase its 4Q18 sales volumes 13% YoY, while achieving a strong price trend. In particular, we estimate that Steppe Cement's ex-works cement prices increased 60% YoY to KZT 15,270/t, or 45% YoY to USD 41/t in 4Q18. We note that Steppe Cement's 2018 volumes and ex-works prices came in slightly above our full-year forecasts.
Supportive export opportunities. According to Steppe Cement, the Kazakhstan cement market declined 4% to 8.6mnt in 2018. Meanwhile, we believe that strong export opportunities, primarily related to Uzbekistan, supported positive price environment. In particular, cement exports from Kazakhstan more than doubled to 2mnt in 2018, while Steppe Cement increased its exports by 50% YoY to 220,000t, according to the company. Longer transportation distances also resulted in stronger growth of delivered prices compared with ex-works prices. In particular, Steppe Cement's delivered prices increased 25% YoY to KZT 16,480/t (+18% to USD 48/t) in 2018, while the company's 2018 revenues rose 32% YoY to KZT 28bn or 24% to USD 82mn. This revenue number exceeds our estimate of USD 77mn. Meanwhile, we believe that upside risks to our profitability assumptions are lower, as higher delivered prices were also associated with higher transportation costs. For this reason we leave our projections unchanged.
Attractive valuation and dividend. We expect that Steppe Cement will distribute at least GBp 2 per share in the 2018 dividend, which implies a 10% yield at the current price. We also believe that the recent decline in Steppe Cement's share price has made its valuation even more attractive. In particular, our forecasts imply that Steppe Cement trades at an over 40% discount to global peers on its 2019 EV/EBITDA of 3.2x and at about 70% discount on EV/capacity of USD 30/t.
Steppe Cement (STCM LN, GBp)
Buy (21 Sep 2016, 12:09 UTC) // Previous: Hold (14 Jul 2016, 13:07 UTC)
Target price, 12mo: 33.00 // Price: 20.50 // Upside: 61% // DY: 10.2% // ETR, 12mo: 71%
Vladimir Bespalov, Equities Analyst
+7 495 663 46 51 // vladimir.bespalov@vtbcapital.com
|
PLUS1
