Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[spawny100] 11/1/2022 14:30

Well sounds like I was right yesterday to suggest Kazakh government may tax mining more heavily as seems like that is precisely what the new president has proposed today. Not sure if this would apply to cement production or not as details not been forthcoming yet.

[msd248] 11/1/2022 14:08

Rencap published a note on KZ macro. This is the last paragraph. Implications from protests may be quite positive.
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Finally, on a more philosophic tack, talking about longer-term political scenarios, during the past week there has been no lack of historical comparisons and speculation about the role of President Tokayev – from a very transitional figure or #2 Nazarbayev to Janos Kadar in Hungary to Vidkun Quisling in Norway. One parallel that appears relevant to us is Tokayev vs Khrushchev – who herded the USSR into ‘Ottepel’; (The Thaw) after Stalin’s epoch. His 11 years (1953-1964) in office are remembered for a mix of tangible political liberalisation (without a major change in the administrative communist system), heavy social spending and investments (including those in the space programme), as well as the Caribbean Crisis, depreciation of the rouble and an unnecessarily tough reaction to rallies in Novocherkassk and during the 1956 uprising in Hungary. But the most notable legacy of Khruschev was mass housing construction (‘Krushchevky’ provided homes for one-third of those “born in the USSR”, including this analyst). In a decade the USSR built more houses than in the previous 40 years, notably, becoming #1 in housing construction in the world. Therefore, if some similarities do emerge, we think it could be very good news for those sectors exposed to housing, including banks. One thing we believe can hardly be expected is a strong tenge though, as fiscal easing should drive the current account deficit’s expansion, while somewhat less robust investor sentiments (with a weaker country’s leader) could limit scope for capital inflow.

[eggbaconandbubble] 10/1/2022 16:27

.....having filled his wellies with STCM!

[mattjos] 10/1/2022 15:52

Kazakh leader says order now restored

[elpirata] 10/1/2022 14:15

both Caspian(CASP) & AltynGold(ALTN) have issued rns today confirming theyre fully operational in Kazak.

[elpirata] 10/1/2022 13:22

Update should be Weds 12th if they follow on from previous years

[eggbaconandbubble] 10/1/2022 13:18

Silly me. No internet outage in Kuala Lumpur. That said, I have a note that STCM were to publish Q4 earnings today. Or am I having a brainstorm?

[farnesbarnes] 10/1/2022 13:00

I'm waiting for Wilo to return. I'm sure he'll have some interesting comments.

[mattjos] 10/1/2022 11:12

don't see why not .. internet all back and I doubt was even affected where they are

[eggbaconandbubble] 10/1/2022 09:50

I guess they won't be able to publish results today and for a few days more going forward!

[spawny100] 10/1/2022 06:54

Not just risks to production. The bigger risks imo are negative sentiment towards investment in a previously stable country and risks that assets are heavily taxed, or even nationalised, by rogue government. I don't see it ending quickly sadly.

[jailbird] 10/1/2022 06:47

More than anything it impacts the risks and then sentiment of the companies in the region Just hope it is short lived because the longer it drags , the higher the risks of escalation

[jailbird] 10/1/2022 06:45

I would not take this unrest lightly , Arab spring began in a similar way .The problem i now expect protests and unrest to start in other countries too Whether it can impact production is another thing but need to keep an eye on developments . Disruption to logistics , pipeline routes , or even workers who may join in to protests Can happen at anytime .Very much depends on the location of trouble and location of plants

[spawny100] 10/1/2022 06:35

I don't understand why you would think zero hedge is trash compared to the BBC. They are far, far better at giving sources for all their data and information as decent journalism should do. The BBC just tend to say things like 'scientists say" or "sources say" etc. Anyone who wants to can follow the links to source information and analyse the data themselves. BBC by contrast is usually pure propaganda.

[mattjos] 09/1/2022 22:42

This is an engineered distraction, afaic & it's a disgrace that the people of Kazakhstan are being used like this.

The Yanks are not even holding a low pair ahead of the negotiations with Putin this week & they know it, whilst Putin has the Aces & the Gas.

Biden couldn't cross a main road, unaided & Germany are much weakened now that Merkel has gone (she had the respect of Putin).

[mattjos] 09/1/2022 22:34

Then let's consider the relative locations of what's going on:

The capital of Kazakhstan is Nursaltan .. quite close to Steppe Cement.

Putin has a lot of troops close to the border with Eastern Ukraine … & then there's Almaty - about as far away from E. Ukraine as you can get, within Russia's sphere of direct influence.

Why did the trouble not flare up in the capital city but instead, in the city about as far from Russia as you get inside Kazakhstan? Surely not because that would require Putin to commit troops as far from the Ukraine as possible? No, surely not that.

[mattjos] 09/1/2022 22:17

Let's at least consider where the 'trouble' is and where Steppe Cement are.

As the crow flies, we're probably closer to border with Mongolia than we are to Almaty!:

[dodger777] 09/1/2022 21:54

I think people slate the bbc to much. Can’t really compare them with the likes of zerohedge ..utter trash ..imo :)
I agree with STCM and CAML too for that matter, current share price is giving people an opportunity which I’m certainly taking advantage of 👍🏻

[finctastic] 09/1/2022 21:53

Mattjos, not for the first time I agree with you.

[finctastic] 09/1/2022 21:52

Zero hedge and The Guardian pretty much running the same story yesterday. Two extremes in my view. As you say in the case of both and many other media outlets and clickbait merchants, take it with a pinch of salt.

[mattjos] 09/1/2022 21:47

& the BBC a spewer of far left rhetoric … take your pick :-)

The truth in the middleground but, either way, I just don't see this affecting STCM .. whoever in charge, Cement demand will continue.

If all this blew up in the peak demand part of the year, I might be more concerned but, not in the depths of winter.

[dodger777] 09/1/2022 21:39

zerohedge a far right mouthpiece and stoker of conspiracy theories …id take what they spew with a bucket load of salt.

[mattjos] 09/1/2022 20:44

This, I expect, is close to the truth of events in Kazakhstan. Surely more than just a coincidence that this occurs in Kazakhstan just ahead of USA/Russia talks over Ukraine but if USA really thinks this is going to weaken Putin's forces on the border with Ukraine, they are much mistaken.

3,000 Spetsnatz & a 'shoot to kill' edit will be more than enough to quell this pseudo-uprising.

The Yanks just cannot stop themselves trying to run every country in the world, the way they see fit & for their own advantages but, with little attention to history or forward thinking.

I don't doubt that Putin will already have seen this sort of tactic coming down the pipe and will have been ready to stamp out any localised incendiaries designed to distract him from the Ukraine situation.

This theatre is just too far away from USA and its main EU military assets for them to really do much, despite their growing presence in Poland over last 5-6 years.

[gary1966] 09/1/2022 12:24

Things appear to be being brought under control if you can believe all that you read.

[spawny100] 08/1/2022 12:03

I agree with much of your post Mattjos in terms of motives but I was in here and CAML as safe dividend investments in a safe political country. I no longer feel the same about either of these criteria given recent events; I feel safer out of both for the time being. The risk is now too high for me here as these weren't in my higher risk category but are now. I hope you're right that it all blows over soon though.