Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[arcadian] 09/11/2020 18:39

Would someone please start a new thread to discuss Covid, vaccines, death rates etc

Trying to establish the value of Alpala is difficult enough without the statistical dialogue which is creeping in here.

Covid is bad enough in everyday life without it spoiling our pleasure dome.

PS A good time for Barrick to add some copper.

[lefrene] 09/11/2020 17:59

Disrupter1664,

I suspect that behind the scenes the banking system has pretty much gone over the edge, and what we are seeing is desperate efforts to distract the public whilst the biggest financial bandaid in history is being created to stop everything falling apart. (witness the FED buying up 22% of the bond and stock market) I'm expecting the attempted imposition of electronic 'money' before too long. Today's gyrations because it seems there's a 'cure' appear to me absurd.

As for the covid thing, if you had a genuine deadly disease it wouldn't take from August to late February to recognise it. You wouldn't leave Heathrow airport wide open through a 'lockdown', but you would be dishing out vitamin D and Hydroxychloroquine once early on, you knew they were a good preventative. One can only conclude that there is the most staggering incompetence, or there is another agenda.

[swanvesta] 09/11/2020 17:36

LowTrawler, you have to be careful to compare apples with apples. I think you're quoting case fatality rates for flu, not infection fatality. That is a huge overestimate of actual infection fatality.

In the case of covid we know we have had vastly more infections than recorded cases. This is clear from antibody surveys, as well as from studies of complete populations such as that on Diamond Princess.

CDC stats for influenza are 3.4 deaths per 100,000, or 0.0034%. But this will be an underestimate, as it's over the entire population (not all of whom will be infected):


The problem is that deaths (the numerator for fatality rate) are much easier to count than the denominator. The following survey of swine flu stats illustrates this with mortality figures ranging from 13.5% (of lab-confirmed cases) down to 0.01% (of estimated infections):

[disruptor1664] 09/11/2020 17:19

Agreed Lefrene,Amazing how if people want to believe something so desperately they think it will come true. They 'think' the early stage vaccine will work, possible again 'singular' strains and come next Monday 9AM we will be all packing trains and trams full of people spaces 0.01m apart and working in city centres, all of the debt and debased currencies will be forgotten and the sun is coming out for winter and it will be 29 degC in Gretna Green for Christmas day.Nothing has changed here. Fundamentally there is more stimulus to be printed by the U.S; the U.K now over 1tn and the global economies still remain scarred and in need of organic growth and recovery.Let's see what happens in 5 days time when a dose of reality hits the world.

[rougepierre] 09/11/2020 16:28

BHP still up 3.3% (MCap £82Bn)...SOLG down 2.1% (MCap £650m)...

BHP with $8.1bn free cashflow despite COVID...

Sitting duck...?

[lowtrawler] 09/11/2020 16:26

Thanks swanvesta. I'll do a bit more research but as standard flu has a 0.1%-0.2% fatality rate, it does beg the question why CV19, at 0.27%, has been taken so seriously. For 0.27% to be an accurate figure for the UK, it would mean 18.2m people in the UK have already had it, around 27% of the population.

[fsawatcher] 09/11/2020 16:08

news tomorra

you heard it last

[zoros1] 09/11/2020 16:07

GGP, my other baby - is getting hammered!!
Z

[zoros1] 09/11/2020 16:06

hxxps://shareprices.com/sectors/mining
Z

[lefrene] 09/11/2020 16:01

Thanks zoros1, but I remain sceptical.

This seems a strangely exaggerated gold price movement in response to a vaccine. The economic outlook fundamentals are dreadful, and the money printing isn't going to stop today.

[zoros1] 09/11/2020 15:53

Maybe the precurser of bad news?
Z

[rougepierre] 09/11/2020 15:51

What on earth is happening...we were up 7% at one time, now we're down 2%...

That's a 9% turnaround...

FTSE still up 5%+

BHP still up almost 5%

Is a bidder playing with the share price ..?

[swanvesta] 09/11/2020 15:39

zoros1, case fatality rates aren't particularly useful for gauging what's happening with actual infections.

[rougepierre] 09/11/2020 15:36

Main markets technically overbought...

People in US selling tech stocks, gold/silver to fund FOMO purchases in the likes of Carnival...up 41% at one stage...

Way ahead of the game IMO...S&P has already retraced 2% down from its all time high...

50 million doses of vaccine available by early next year from Pfizer...1.3bn by end 2021...

In the meantime, the vaccine news will lead to all Trump's supporters abandoning their masks and, together with the all time high in markets, encourage Trump even more to refuse to back down...

Thereby drawing the 'concession' out right up to 20 January, but he won't concede anyhow...

In the meantime, his supporters could cause mayhem...COVID cases could rise to 200,000 a day...unemployment remains over 20 million....Biden can't get a stimulus through because the Senate is 'hung' until the two Georgia reruns take place...

Further economic fallback...accelerating inflation...

Gold/silver massively oversold today...sat on technical support of c$1860...

SOLG clearly being priced as a gold stock because it has ignored the copper spike...

Added lots more GPM and HOC and keeping my SOLG...gold/silver/copper is the place to be...

AIMO as usual...

[swanvesta] 09/11/2020 15:35

LowTrawler,

CDC at one point estimated 0.26% infection fatality but apparently upped it to 0.65% in August/September. I can't find that data in a quick search, but presume it can be constructed from the following age-range estimates (which are ratios, so multiply by 100 to get %):

0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054


Around the same time WHO also estimated 0.6%. However, they've more recently published a survey of studies, showing the considerable variability in the numbers people have come up with, but settling on a median of 0.27%, which is close to the original CDC estimate:

[zoros1] 09/11/2020 15:32

LSE still down!
Z

[zoros1] 09/11/2020 15:26

lefrene:
death rate globally: 3%. Nationally: 4%



Z

[zoros1] 09/11/2020 15:23

Good spot pob. I noticed last time I waded thru the presentation that the ecuadorain lass was missing. NM also said he'd be moving slots to the 'other' board' I wonder why the latter?
Z

[lowtrawler] 09/11/2020 15:21

Just need to wait for the wider market to re-trace. A positive vaccine announcement was expected this month and so a step jump like this is illogical.

[chavitravi2] 09/11/2020 15:18

Reckon folk are selling again to go into wide markets going up.
Just temporary one hopes. Cost me a bomb selling my Lloyd's for these.

[pob69] 09/11/2020 14:52

Subtle change in today's Solgold updated presentation deck (prevously 5/11) SOLG $SOLG $SOLG.L #porvenir #cascabel #ecuador $CGP

The "Experienced and Invested Board" slide now includes the 3 new NEDs (worth noting that Maria Amparo according to SEDI has purchased a small tranche of shares with opening balance 23,500 shares 5/11) and Nick Mather has been moved to the "Experienced Technical and Management Team" slide!

Kevin O'Kane's profile and activities, in particular, will be worth following!

[rougepierre] 09/11/2020 14:16

M&A accelerating next year...

Barrick and Kinross throwing off mountains of free cashflow...

Now how are they going to spend that...?

[lowtrawler] 09/11/2020 13:35

RP, the quote refers to the process which ultimately resulted in the FNV deal. They had asked for financing deals to be provided as part of the same process. SOLG used the $1.5bn proposals received as part of that process to make that statement. We might guess that the $3bn proposal will include elements of streaming but we would be guessing.

[rougepierre] 09/11/2020 13:30

BHP up 6.35%...5% from the intraday low...

SOLG up 1%...sat almost on the day's low...

Bid incoming g...?

Even ATYM is up 5%...

Surely an opportunity too good to miss for the big boys...?

[rougepierre] 09/11/2020 13:23

Agreed DD...