Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[swanvesta] 09/11/2020 11:50

Have we had any reliable indication on the timescale for Alpala PFS?

[jlondon] 09/11/2020 11:48

----------SOLGOLD ---------

P R O V E N I R [100%] Southern Ecuador
H O L E 1
Nov 4, 2020 RNS: " 1st drill hole at Porvenir returns 570m CuEQ open at depth.Assays from 580m remain pending."
"188m @0.73% cuEq [0.56% cu & 0.23g/t au from 392-580m, cut off 0.3%cueq.
106m@ @0.86% cuEq [0.67% cu & 0.25g/t from 474m to 580m, cut off 0.7%cueq, open at depth."
H O L E 2: Current depth 839.9m."
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Mon, 9 Nov 2020 Solgold share price 34.30p to sell & 35p +6.3% to buy [advertised price at 11:52am]. Market Cap: £720m. Shares in issue: 2bn
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<><>SOLGOLD - FUTURE OF THE COMPANY<><&gt;
1] "Nick Mather: We*ve got 11 more of those where that came from."-Mining Journal, 22 Nov 2018

2}"SOLGOLD LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BHP:Mather."-Mining Journal, 2 Mar 2019
External preamble: "MD Mather says Alpala will make Solgold news "BHP" in Northern Ecuador. Solgold [LSE:Solg] managing director has VERY high expectations." hxxps://www.mining-journal.com/events-coverage/news/1357773/solgolds-mather-looks-to-be-the-next-bhp
Article*s preamble: "We hope this will confirm Tier 1 economics...I hope Solgold becomes for Ecuador what BHP was for Australia, a 100-150 year co." [The rest of the article is via subscription]

3} Business Focus MAG: "Solgold talks to us about the discovery and development of world class copper gold projects in Ecuador and how the company is building a COPPER GOLD MAJOR." 4 Nov 2020


4] There are 2 more N.Mather presentations he did with Goldman Sachs Gold & Alternative Investments Conference & London South East - it is clear that he wants a potential of 5 Tier1 projects? I have posted the links before in my recent posts on ADVFN Solgold [another thread so kindly look back]

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Major Investors: Newcrest & BHP [Franco Nevada - streaming $100m +$50m if wanted]
BHP*s last investment in Solgold was at 45p & Newcrest 41p.
--
Recent M & A deal in Ecuador: Llurimagua - The Ecuador govt has obtained a valuation from an international investment bank and their deposit near to Alpala, Cascabel [Solg] is going for auction for "at least US$600m" for Enami [govt] share of 51% in the project. Therefore, the 100% deposit will be US1.2b [600x2]

MANAGEMENT BY OBJECTIVES:
Investors look at:
Valuation Metrics - M & A etc
Direction of the co and the Vision of the co as expoused by the N.Mather.

In the Business Focus article as above:
In 5 years, Solgold is aiming to be in production at Alpala & working on Feasibility Study and exploration program."
"We are building a MAJOR copper and gold co...MASSIVE UPSIDE." -N.Mather.
----
Livermore Partners - David Neuhauser on Solgold
"LIVERMORE PITCHES VISA & SOLGOLD."
hxxps://www.valuewalk.com/2020/06/livermore-vista-oil-gas-solgold/ 8 June 2020 Livermore*s presentation at Value Walk Contrarian Investors Virtual Conference.
From the presentation and interview:
"Top quartile asset. Solgold*s Alpala is 1 of the most significant copper gold porphyry discovery in the last 10 years and projected net C1 costs elow $0.75/lb." Short video+ slide.

SP ANGEL & REDCLOUD have also given an interview recently on the Hole 1 assay results [top part] for Porvenir [100% owned by Solgold], South Ecuador. The latter, "could be Alpala 2.0."
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INVESTORS:
On the main busy ADVFN Solgold forum, many are discussing their views. Unless one knows what is one*s expectations and target price based on valuation etc vs broker*s target prices as a guide, how can one REALISE VALUE? Traders will sell based on traders rules eg resistance etc.

For investors, they need to have a clear idea of where they are going with the co or any co. That alone is insufficient as one needs to be clear on the value one wants to realise if possible and over what time-frame.

J. London
ADVFN Solgold
Mon 4 Nov 2020
How far am I going to go? [ Answer: ]

[fsawatcher] 09/11/2020 11:28

i sold everyfink at 42.5p then bought back eveyrfink at 31p

i genius

evceryfink i do turns to money i never mke mistake coz i so pefekt

that be me in the la la land where bb posts are bout real as donald trump pokin melania these days

rougepiere, no one belive you mate and no one cares

you just nuther poster behind screen and not real

sorry bud but you aint got 990k of stock

i doubt you got 100k

you aint rich and you aint successful

if you were

you wouldnt be postin 'arent I great stuff on ere all day

self obession on here is bit obsceeen innit

[rougepierre] 09/11/2020 11:07

No McK...I didn't and I started my post with saying I was still bullish...

Given that, for example, there could be a further explosion in COVID both sides of the pond, which could provoke a market crash, all putative values are subjective...

And while I don't disagree with 60p, I still say that if that is the correct current value, why hasn't the market valued it there...

One possible reason is Ecuador specific risk...political, etc.

Another is that SOLG still doesn't have a definitive PFS, let alone DFS and Funding agreed...if the latter required a substantial equity element, that would have a material impact; if the debt cost was particularly high, that would be a factor, etc.

All I'm saying is that the constant posting of estimated valuations and the various analysts estimates and targets remain academic until the price gets there.

So to each individual investor, all that matters is their own price target or targets, at which they would sell some or all of their shares.

While I value the impact of posters like LT, who has proved himself to be sound and objective, at the end of the day the only value of SOLG that matters to me or anyone else is the value they themselves place on it...

If JL calling me out for saying the share price could fall to 28, as being 'advice' then surely LT saying SOLG is worth 55p is also 'advice'...?

So mirabeau sold out for personal reasons, fearing further falls, but I daresay there is a price at which he would be happy to buy back. That's his call and I respect it.

My normal strategy is to sell half a holding when the share price doubles, but because I remain bullish and didn't need any more money, I decided to sell only a quarter. The price at which I sell any of the rest will be purely circumstantial, irrespective of my hope that they may reach at least 55/60 in the next several weeks.

If a bid came, I would adjust my sales criteria based on that...

ATB...

[mknight] 09/11/2020 10:51

Low. Maybe he sold a few more than advised .

Good post btw .😃👍

[lowtrawler] 09/11/2020 09:56

RP, that's a bizarre argument on valuation that you make. The debate is about what SOLG should be valued at. To quote Benjamin Graham "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.". None of us would be SOLG investors unless we felt the SOLG market price was undervaluing the company.

Setting aside the possibility of bids, the only part of SOLG that could be valued with any degree of accuracy is Alpala. As we have seen over the years, even when you have a lot of information on Alpala, it is possible to arrive at vastly different valuations. The short run market appears to value Alpala around £400m - £550m. In my view, this massively undervalues Alpala and so creates my investment case for SOLG.

Valuing Porvenir is in its infancy. We are less then 2 holes in and efforts are being made to project values based on unsubstantiated assumptions and projections. Even so, the early results are promising, the potential resource will exceed Alpala if the full potential is realised, it may become open pit and there could even be a complex of mines. The short term market appears to value Porvenir around £140m - £180m. In my view, this massively undervalues the asset, even at its current state of development.

All our other assets have preliminary exploration results but nothing substantiated against which to place a value. Thus, the short term market appears to value all our other assets around £60m. In my view, Rio Amarillo will become another Porvenir in the next few weeks. That should mean a reassessment on the possible value contained in the unproven sites and £60m will again appear to be undervalued.

Investors need to make up their own minds as to where the true value lies for SOLG. For me, Alpala is worth at least 40p and so I view any price under 40p as a buying opportunity with very limited risk. I would also be happy to pay 15p for Porvenir even with the limited information available to us. As more information becomes available for Porvenir, I hope it can rise towards the Alpala valuation and hopefully exceed it.

My fingers are crossed for Rio.

So, when I weigh the value of SOLG today, I believe we should be somewhere around 60p with that value rising as more information on Porvenir becomes available and rising substantially if Rio becomes the next Porvenir. DD will cry about dilution and funding but I believe the worst case scenario is already built into my views of value.

What we need is a weighing event - something which causes the short run votes to be turned into an actual measurement. It could be a bid, a JV, a major new investor etc. Until the weighing event arrives, we are drifting.

[fsawatcher] 09/11/2020 09:13

level 2 were a good band but i not talkin music heres though t is to my ears

that book tighter than a nuns vag

39p is a comin innit

[rougepierre] 09/11/2020 09:07

Any price I've mentioned before has either been what a successful bidder might pay or the sort of level I would make my next sale.

I wouldn't even attempt to value the company with statements like ' the othec70 projects are worth nothing"....

[kop202] 09/11/2020 08:54

Can you post in English please ...

[fsawatcher] 09/11/2020 08:50

wowsarr

so i tlookin solg sellin ecuadors and goin into wizard of oz

that excitin coz that oz ggp miner worth billion base on no mre

i dit know much bout ozzie assets so fank yous poggo pog pob

us the best my man

[rougepierre] 09/11/2020 08:49

Sorry guys...bullish though I may be...forecasting the price of SOLG is totally subjective, because there still remain uncertainties...

SOLG is not worth 55p right now...it is only worth what the marginal investor will pay...which is c34.35p...

If it was worth 55p institutional and private investors would be piling in...

I've given up trying to put a medium term value and no valuation method will give you a reliable number.

If a successful bid comes, SOLG is worth the exit price...

At production it will be worth what the market thinks...

In the meantime, if it was worth 55p...or more...we would have seen a spike and sustained higher price like GGP...

Right now it is news driven and even the exciting Porvenir results couldn't sustain a price over 40p...

AIMO as usual...

[pob69] 09/11/2020 07:54

Interesting to see a new article about Australian tenements (published via the hosts of the King of the Ring webinar competition in the summer which the company won) SOLG $SOLG $SOLG.L #porvenir #cascabel #ecuador

[mam fach] 09/11/2020 02:43

Very fitting and appropriate remembrance service today. Nice to see all working members of our Royal family in attendance. Uplifting our spirits in a different kind of war.

[mknight] 08/11/2020 20:11

No casualties Arcadian i will put him back on filter where he belongs . Should not have taken him off but saw JL was getting upset by the old man .

[arcadian] 08/11/2020 19:38

Any chance of a truce?

Today is Remebrance Day. Perhaps we should remember MIRA

We have an older man in Scotland not very good at choosing brides but living happily with his French housekeeper while using his considerable experience and knowledge to dampen ( as he sees it) the excessive expectations of what seem to be a younger, heavily invested group who wish to inherit the earth or at least the bit of it they own in Ecuador.

I am not in any position to cast the first stone since I have often teased DD in the past bridling against his apparent desire to discount so much of future value that we will all be like Cornerstone and owe Solg hard cash when it starts mining. I always get the feeling though that he has a twinkle in his eye when he posts

Valuation is difficult and the squabbles and language used (even between well meaning bulls) are not likely to affect the final outcome whether that is income or sale so is this special day when we remember the results of open conflict a good time to cool it and stop before we end up with casualties in one form or another?

[mknight] 08/11/2020 18:41

DD A good post fot the first 2 words . As usual went badly wrong after that .

You still dont get it do you . As long as Solgold keep finding tier 1 projects the value will rise and rise . The assets in the ground and are proven .it makes funding alot easier and cheaper .

[dozyduck] 08/11/2020 16:26

Sorry mk "If Solgold was just one project it would be easier to forcast its value but its not . DD has never understood this simple concept" Not quite sure what you mean by that. Seems your usual muddle. Are you saying I shouldn't be arguing with your 'valuations' for Alpala. Because I can tell you (and JL) that the sums fund managers and potential bidders will be doing on Solg complete , or just Alpala, will be totally different to those you are doing. For a start they will be discounting for the 6-8 years before anything happens at either, including Porvenir, and taking note of the dilution Solg will incur to prove them up, plus exploration. They, unlike you, will note that even if Alpala is funded by debt (or 70% of it as the most project funders would offer) the first significant cash flow after debt repayments won't occur before 12 years from now, and at Porvenir not much sooner. Where do you suppose Solg will get its exploration funding meanwhile ? With NM pursuing a whole series of 'finds' and 'development' I suspect that not even he can forecast his future cash needs, let alone outsiders. Its that which frightens investors. And JL you continue to spout ignorant nonsense about the financial services market and the equity research industry. I told you the best analysts are out of sight in the fund managers, and not part of those in the limited no of brokers who go public with 'targets'. And they don't 'need' FCA 'licences'. only a lot more experience than most brokers' analysts.

[jlondon] 08/11/2020 14:49

Hear Hear MK,

We are here for the same reason. On Fri, 6 Nov 2020, Solgold closed at 32.30p/32.70p, Mkt Cap of £676m. Shares in issue 2b. BHP*s investment in Solgold @45p [$45m invested the last tranch]. Prior to Porvenir, share price wa 27p*ish and on 8 Oct 2020, Porvenior RNS relating to 900m of visible mineralisation at Hole 1 saw the price rising to a high of 43.9p.

So, in a spirit of goodwill, let*s look forward to Solgold*s future [caveated for risk vs reward & no guarantees when it comes to all shares] We can now move on.

J.L. Sun 8 Nov 2020.

[mknight] 08/11/2020 13:27

Good post JL and true .

If Solgold was just one project it would be easier to forcast its value but its not . DD has never understood this simple concept .

When you have Alpala which you can give a fair value of atleast 40p you have a base which values the company at approx 800 million pounds .

As we move on it becomes more complicated . At the moment i would give to be on the safe side no value for la Hueca , Blanca and Rio Amarillo Until we have somerhing positive . Porvenir is now a discovery and looking very very good so a fair value at the moment i think would be 15/20p but ever changing as the results come in .

The other 70 projects again recieve no value as they are just projects .

So based on my super conservative estimates you could value the company at around 55p a share and be pretty confident that buying at any price lower you would in the future be making money .

[jlondon] 08/11/2020 12:32

DD
I thought I would have a look at your posts quickly to see what you are on about.
Apparently, you are an "engineer" [#25388 dated 3.10.20 "I*m an engineer, not a geo. But I can read geo reports."

You only started posting on ADVFN Solg on 14 Sep 2020 otherwise, you are on KIBO, Ncondezi Energy, Oracle Coal, POW re: Haneti etc.

In the main, you appear to "pick" on posters ie comment on their posts or teach them tis and dat.

This is what you posted on Asiamet:
"BKM of course wont o/s profitable [alto large] and a recent copper price only marginal. So it would be no surprise if Aeturnum drives a HARD BARGAIN." #23963 dated 5 Sep 2020.

On 9 Oct 2020, AsiaMet Resources struck a deal with Aeturnum wherein the deal was worth US$163 million consisting of US$10m in cash & $40m in two tranches, latter on milestone. Further, Asiamet will get a 22.2% share in a Indonesian IPO which Aeturnum has obtained an INDEPENDENT V A L U A T I O N of US$ 5 0 0 Million. This is only for the BKM deposit [Beutong NOT included]. Aeturnum will also include their commodity trading biz into the IPO so Liberum says there may be more upside once listed.

Liberum*s broker note by the household name Richard Knights gave a benchmark M & A deal when valuing Asiamet*s BKM and it was from a deal struck with an Australian co who owned a deposit in Indonesia. It WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE AETURNUM DEAL although Aeturnum*s deal is slightly more given this is 2020 and the other M & A some time ago. So, COME & GO, the valuation was fair value as it needs transparency as norm as in these public listed co*s --a valuation report IS PAR for the course and there is NO BUYING ASSETS FOR A SONG as that wont pass scrutiny.

VALUATION:
I therefore note that you will NOT commit to any VALUATION ie post your valuation if you think its wrong or if in real life you are called to do valuations and can sign in your own name with the required number needed.

Hence, you would NOT commit to any VALUATION NO*S FOR SOLGOLD although N.Mather has said that Solgold has ACHIEVED US$1bn value and BHP*s last buy-in @45p does come to roughly that. 44.57p =US$1bn. Llurimagua - Ecuador*s govt hired an international investment bank that did their debt re-negotiation and they have put "AT LEAST US$600M FOR LLURIMAGUA" when it goes on auction for Enami*s 51% share [govt]. So, GROSS 100% value is US$1.2bn.

So, you AVOID VALUATION cals. As an engineer, you did not say you took further academic study for Finance. On CEO.CA, one poster is doing his Business Finance degree and one of the areas is valuation.

The other day, I asked you to PROVIDE A VALUATION and YOU DISAPPEARED but before then you skirted around as its kinda complex etc.

I am satisfied that you are on ADVFN to show your skills at bish boshing posters, co*s, CEO*s etc. I think you post on LSE as well and there you dare not do the same thing because you might be aware very few people would survive bish boshing etc.

If one were to have taken your EXPERT VIEW ON ASIAMET AND SOLD, THEN SAVINGS IS AT RISK.

I didnt go through a lot of your posts but it was important to see what you said & whether you can in fact do valuations as I dont see ANY VALUATIONS DONE BY YOUR GOOD SELF.

In the USA, ANALYSTS ARE NAMED AND THEY HAVE A SHORT C.V WITH A RATING ie No 1/15,000 kinda thing. Most important is WHAT IS THE RATE OF SUCCESS. In America, NO ONE IS INTERESTED in anyone saying they are X or Y but on their PUBLIC RANKING PROFILE. So, no matter what you say here, you have not shown to have done any or if any [as it appears].

As for broker reports, that is the way it goes in the UK as specified by the FCA to protect people. Those who write these analysts reports need to be qualified & experienced and they put their names down. Many are written by senior Heads of Research of Tier 1 Investment Banks.

So, with due respect, I have to answer this once and for all. Brokers have put a range of share prices and whilst stocks do NOT trade at their full target price [exception GGP which is close or even exceeded as I have not checked lately], nevertheless, they are there. So, for Solgold LIBERUM STARTS AT 50P and HANNAN at £1.28 at the other end whilst the rest are IN-BETWEEN.
These were done PRE-PROVENIR. Since then share price Angel*s VoxPodcast said that Value is from new discoveries and so did Investor*s Chronicle say so ie something like share price up will be from new discoveries. Logical isnt it?

Should a bid come from say BHP, given they wanted 70% of 85% OF ENSA from Solgold, then they have to come close to the latest M & A and from their last price buy-in of @45p = US$1bn for a Tier 1.

So, if they offer 22-25% and if rejected they take it up to another 10-15%, that means 40% which is within the range seen in recent times give or take. Then again, they might NOT take it to a further 10-15%. Per the Times of London, they quoted Liberum*s TAKE-OUT PRICE @55p as a view and this has been posted. So, pretty reasonable given all the cals? No one is privy to any BIDDER*s price, so have to wait to see if any.

So, this ends our conversation once and for all. As for production, Solgold said 2025 and funding per Ingo is awaiting the PSF etc in tandem. Dont tell me that once this schedule is agreed to, there is a change given LIVERMORE said, it has to be completed by 2 years ie FS due to CONCESSIONARY PERIOD and all that.

You just want to throw 2028 and if you are right, N.Mather told you? I am sure he would NOT.

So, unfortunately, you are here to bish-bosh posters but one has to undertake that what you said should be taken with a cautionary note. For this reason, my posts are long as I quote from sources etc and I DO NOT PUT MY OWN DATA OUT.

I can make my post short like this:
Solgold: EXAMPLE ONLY : NM 5 Tier 1*s. Where did this come from? What were the exact wording and not para phrased or intepreted? What was the CONTEXT? Any counter-check with another interview? Etc.

I had to take a look at some of your posts quickly over a few pages only. Apparently, all the ones that you posted on are NOT Tier 1*s?

THIS IS NORM if you say as are appearing to say you are BETTER THAN all the experts including PARTERS of London*s investment banks etc. WE NEED TO KNOW - in the papers, they also say people follow those who have a PUBLISHED RECORD not those who say they are the best in the world kinda thing but HAVE NO PUBLIC C.V OF SUCCESS/success rate in % terms. So, NO OFFENCE - we do need to know as money is at RISK?

Good day. Hope you dont take offence- money/people*s savings are involved and one should know the RECORD.

Sun, 8 Nov 2020 at 12.30 noon. No one about so posting. Tomorrow, I wont post any further relating to answering your posts as it is of no point going to and fro. As for Van Eck, I posted it was a new inclusion. On lse, you posted to bish bosh Van Eck?

I have up to now, NOT posted about need to see PUBLIC RECORDS but since you will not stop bish boshing, there was no choice. I can type up an analyst name in America and I can see his public RANKING & SUCCESS RATE. Even for doctors, surgeons etc, its the same in America. They are NOT INTERESTED IN TALK.

P.S. Just in case you want to look at my posts, there is nothing to pick on as I post on some of the juniors that I am interested in or may be interested in as part of processing the news to see if there is merit etc. I do not MAKE myself out to be an expert or such like. Hence, I post to also benefit from other people*s researched articles etc. Those who dont want to read this post need not read. As for Solgold, I have posted all the data as far as it will go, so not much more I need to post as its a matter of waiting for the Solgold RNS etc. Mather will speak at the 121 Mining Investors Conf. so I will hear what he has to say with interest as usual.

[mknight] 07/11/2020 20:33

DD let the young lad carry on his already had you beat 3 or 4 times this week !!