Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[dozyduck] 07/11/2020 20:28

JL. 'Brokers' are not the experts you seem to think they are. They are purveyors of shares, and puffers of their client companies' shares. I wish you wouldn't keep regurgitating their emanations. The real experts are hidden away in fund managers' back rooms and they never breath a word to anybody and certainly don't even want to know of the existence of these babbling boards.

[chavitravi2] 07/11/2020 19:17

Looks as if Joe is in, I just wonder who his puppet master will be pulling the strings. I bet Alexa will have a full time job just servicing him. That is if like me he can remember her name to give reminders.

[jlondon] 07/11/2020 15:47

MK
SOLGOLD NOV 2020 PRESENTATION
hxxps://www.solgold.com.au/investors-center/

R I O A M A R I L L O

Pg 25/36: "99m @0.35% CuEQ including 25m @0.58% CuEQ

59m @0.15% CuEq including 26m@ 0.26% CuEq [Left side map]

ROCK GEOCHEMISTRY PENDING [relates to another part beyond the data limit line."

Right Map:
"Alpala MRE#3 Footprint [0.21% CuEq CUT-OFF]."

====

F U N D I N G

Pg 5: "Draft conditional financing term sheets underway for $3bn conditional on feasiility permitting and fiscal terms."


My Comment:
As and when the Rio Amarillo drilling starts, the first assay results will be out. Again, just as Porvenir, it is best to manage expectations. From the map of Alpala re: Cut-Off, the grades are as said not usually high for the main ore body, hence the Rio rock chips illustrates this initial observation. Although Rio in total is 12km, I am not sure what is the length of the lithocap at the momo as I have not checked yet. It will take some time to locate the higher grade zone on the stretch.

As to 10-15 years to become a major, that is not something that is not norm. USA co*s take just as long and some longer re: tech giants. No one can tell if one will still be on the earth in 10-15 years time whether young or old as that is not in our hands to determine and control.

On the other forum, one is not sure what will happen as at one stage, users asked for a forum to be entirely closed down due to squabbles etc. I read on Twitter that many have now gone into a Twitter group [closed] and also this group is on Telegram. I am not in any [Solgold].

So, I leave a few notes for further data. On Twitter, someone tweeted about a GAP but to the upside in a big jump. However, as Twitter is widely read, he gave a link to Investopedia re:" gaps [common gaps, breakaway gaps, runaway gaps and exhausation gaps -each with its own signal TO TRADERS. Gaps are easy to spot but determining the type of gap is much harder to figure out." He also tweeted: "90% of gaps get filled." So, not 100% of gaps get filled.

I have seen 2 predictions on Porvenir grades not on target and hence why one needs to manage expectations. One was from a chap who attended geo uni. If people read the predictions and as soon as the grade came out for Hole 1, top part, they would have ...Hence, why I said to wait for the industry to comment - share price Angel and Red Cloud have now done so, the latter said "potentially or could be Alpala 2.0" [the note is not open to the public to view so this is what others have said of the note [2 persons ie pob and jerry spaniel].

With that, best wishes to all. J.L Sat 7 Nov 2020.

[dozyduck] 07/11/2020 14:36

I first noticed your contributions mkn as being somewhat illogical. I think its you needs to be in a home. if not already. I'm happy in my own. And so is my butler and french maid.

[mknight] 07/11/2020 13:44

Your in a home ?

[dozyduck] 07/11/2020 11:21

I'm as old as (various g'friends) feel

[mknight] 07/11/2020 10:41

He comes across as a young chap . You DD are probably mid 60,s .

[dozyduck] 07/11/2020 10:31

Did some clairvoyante tell you you'll still be here in 15 years time JL ?

[jlondon] 07/11/2020 08:56

Chris Temple:
IMF DEBT-RESTRUCTURING & ARREARS --MINING
"Pg 6: Also a believer in Cascabel*s future is the govt of Ecuador: at right you see the Vice Minister of Mining Fernando Benalcazar [right] examining drill core with Solgold*s Jason Ward. Those of you who generally follow Ecuador generally know that the country has agreed to DEBT RE-STRUCTURING deal with the IMF; and a KEY PART of Ecuador*s case to be ABLE TO PAY ITS ARREARS in FUTURE YEARS is as the country expects it MINING-RELATED REVENUE - INCLUDING CASCABEL- to increase over time."

CASCABEL:
"Pg 6: AND, these resources are in JUST 1 AREA [ALPALA] AT CASCABEL , which still is believed to hold F A R MORE RESOURCES in other areas."

ENAMI:
"Pg 10: It is already fairly well known that the CASH-STRAPPED GOVT has a FOR SALE SIGN on Enami*s share of Llurimagua, which could bring in SEVERAL HUNDRED MILLION if a partner to everyone*s liking is found for Codelco."

Ref: Chris Temple, National Investor, Oct 2020 [Mr Temple has visited Ecuador in the past, talked to govt, biz and shown around by CGP etc]

hxxps://nationalinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/Cornerstone-Report-October-2020-1.pdf

[jlondon] 06/11/2020 21:38

Part 2.

Google Finance Fortescue share price.
Maximum chart shows that in 1999, the share price was A46c.
By Sep 2002, it was still 39c.

In Oct 2003, it was A$1.21.

Today, FMG is A$16.55 with a market cap of A$50.96 BILLION. 52 week high A$19.56 and low $16.63.


So, if one takes it from 2005 to 2020, then it is 15 years and so forth. I am not sure if they did any splits.

But suffice to say, the history shows that at one time FMG was some 14c [penny stock] and today, it is a major.

Rio Tinto is today a co with a mkt cap of A$34.67 billion @A$93.40. Newcrest*s share price is A$30.72 with a mkt cap of A$25 Billion.

So, Fortescue is larger than Rio Tinto or Newcrest.

N. Mather gave a interview to Mining Journal and said he wants to emulate Foretescue*s growth.

I wonder how many of the people who bought Fortescue shares are still with the co?

So, it does take time if it can be achieved or its not taken over ETC.

It will require FCF, EBITDA, divi*s ETC to achieve that kind of mkt cap akin to the majors.

That has been what I have been thinking out the last few days as to where I am going with this co and where I will be in 10-15 years time.

Just in case there is some confusion as to what I am saying, it means that if Solgold is not taken over successfully given there could be a proxy fiight, then it is a long haul to achieve the type of mkt cap of majors. It does not go in 1 go to X mkt cap but will achieve what the FCF etc is in the first step. Therefore, I can afford to wait it out to the end provided I am not over invested given the multiples increase and therefore investment is not necessarily needed to be so heavy weighted. This is just basic logic - no decisions made as how can one say with 100% certainty that yes, I will be here in 15 years time?

[jlondon] 06/11/2020 21:11

Schmiel,

Many moons ago, one could buy Solgold shares at 1.5p even though the placing was at 2p. It even fell to 1p but again for a few mins. The MM*s refused to sell many except to let out 100 or 200 shares. But at 1.5p, one could get quite a bit of shares if one bought slowly. The presentation was out so it was clear what was to come.

Many were nervous as kittens. It said the environmental licence was IMMINENTLY but people looked it up in the dictionary and thought it was going to be shortly. Till today, people are not aware that when reporting, imminently does not mean exactly that in practice.

Now, if one had invested £1,000 at 1.5p, it would mean that when BHP bought in at 45p it would net £30,000 or 30 bagger [1.5p to 45p]. If one could buy at 1p the 2nd time when Eric was busy scaring everyone, it would be £1,000 to £45,000 or 45 bagger.

Since you appear to have put so much in, no wonder you were nervous.

In the latest N.Mather interview with Business Focus of recent days, the last part was about the direction of the co. He says he wants to build a mining major and that it will take 10-15 years from recall.

If this can be achieved, it will take some time to achieve the type of MKT CAP*s that majors enjoy. It needs FCF, revenue, profit or EBITDA etc. It is about execution. It will not jump straight away because it will achieve the 1st rung that commensurate with the FCF or based on the P/E vs Sector P/E. It would help if there is a commodity boom for copper in the EV revolution.

So, funding will be the 1st step if the co is not taken over.

I have thought it out in the last few days and the interviews have given me a clearer picture.

Yes, Solgold is looking for 5 best assets which they need to become a major and even Mather knows people are having a laugh because not many co*s can find more than one Tier 1 - juniors that is.

In the meantime, the Value Valley will help as IC says that discoveries will help the share price So did John Meyer say so that the real value is in new discoveries or to that effect.

Hence, a production play [EXECUTION] and a DISCOVERIES PLAY - this is not the usual run of the mill.

Many have been here for some time. 10-15 years is a long time frame. So, one can adjust the expectation vs the investment accordingly.

So, I thought you may have to look into this more deeply and find out the playbook of Fortescue which Mather is trying to emulate ie growth of Fortescue.

I post this in case, people say, well you didnt say. Well, I am saying now. EXECUTION is a different play to exploration.

That*s why Andrew Forrest is no longer running Fortescue as he is running all over trying to look for resource rich countries but it makes some shareholders nervous. I read it on the Australian forum. He is going to Afgan - yeah it has rich resources but....can he get it out? So, execution is left to someone else. It needs a different skill set. OH, IN STOCKS, ALWAYS EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED - there can never be 100% guarantees & accordingly one has to adjust.

[mknight] 06/11/2020 20:51

I will try and find out whats happening as i have no doubt they have drilled atleast 4 of the 5 holes planned .

[jlondon] 06/11/2020 20:35

I checked the Solgold RNS of 13 Aug 2020.

It says they are using a 1 man portable driller.

I also read somewhere else that the driller took shares instead of being paid cash to drill La Hueca. It was commented that the driller will have the incentive to do well as he has shares.

In the 13 Aug 2020 RNS, it stated that drilling has commenced at La Hueca and is at 91m.

The latest Solgold presentation of 5 Nov 2020 for La Hueca says it is at 91m.

Put 2 + 2 = NOTHING HAS BEEN HAPPENING.

How can I come to any other conclusion except that Jason Ward & Whistler have been so busy, they cant be 24/7 at La Hueca and therefore, they dont have command and control there?

You know what happens when workmen turn up and then they go for tea and never come back?

What other conclusion can there be? Activities report would probably say drilling is at 91m?

I try not to draw a conclusion as that means I have to state it too clearly and plainly when I do not know. I dont want to say the driller has been X or Y but what else can it be?

Got to wait and see. Its not as important in the scheme of things at the momo.

[mknight] 06/11/2020 19:55

Yes . What are you saying in english please as you are not making any sense .

[jlondon] 06/11/2020 19:35

MK

Just looked at the RNS of 13 Aug 2020.

Using 1 man portable and depth at 91m.

Soooo, La Hueca has been left to drillers.

Need I say more?

[mknight] 06/11/2020 18:59

That cant be right JL they have been drilling since the 13th of August .

Maybe they ment 91km 😃

Must be a record breaking hole

[jlondon] 06/11/2020 18:43

MK

Latest Solgold presentation out:
Pg 28
LA HUECA
"DRILLING OPERATIONS CURRENTLY AT DEPTH OF 91M.
Testing depth extent.
Target 6 1.25km x 1km.

---
My Comment:
So, nothing to report yet to market as 91m as of 5 Nov 2020 is not sufficient to RNS yet. As they said they are going to test depth extent.

hxxps://www.solgold.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/SolGold_Corporate_Investor_NOV5.pdf dated 5 Nov 2020.

On Rio, they have one area that said rock geochemistry pending. [Pg25]

From the Goldman Sachs Conference, it does look like even in Feb 2020, they were going to concentrate on Porvenir.

That is where the man-power is concentrated on. On one of the targets, he said COMPLEX GEOLOGY at the Goldman Sachs said Conference. I know its not the big targets so I am not sure if it is La Blanca or La Hueca?

I think they are looking frantically for Tier 1. From my own observation, it may be possible that whilst useful, La Hueca or La Blanca may not be Tier 1? Mather said La Blanca may provide $1-2b NPV which is not large enough. It is more gold from what I gather from the past. So, they are aware that the PFS must be produced pretty soon. That means they have to strategize to hit the real big potential Tier 1 first so to buy time.

Also, Jason Ward or Whistler cant be at so many places.

[mam fach] 06/11/2020 18:07

Biden win -stolen from Trump you mean ?
True Trump Theatre.
Kept us amused while we wait for news from SOLG.

[rougepierre] 06/11/2020 17:34

UT 204,625 at 32.6...down 0.6%...nuts!

Lets hope for a mega week next week as markets settle down to a Biden win...

Much more stimulus and no tax rises

Limitless QE, AVERAGE 2% inflation target, based on last night's Minutes...

Excellent for Gold and Copper...

AIMO as usual...

Have a good one!

[jlondon] 06/11/2020 17:31

MK
To RNS, it must be "material" news as the employee said to the poster.
I find that DGR*s Quarterlies are insightful so they may have an update but not material enough to RNS in London yet.

I have listened to another interview which I have never seen posted. It has even more details eg:

-Province-rich gold belt.
-Like walking into Chile in 1600*s.
-US$100bn value in the ground.
-75licences-opportunity to deliver Tier 1*s.

-"SPECTACULAR PAYBACK, HIGH IRR. $2.8bn needed - good TRACTION with WORLD FINANCIERS.
-Different financing strategies
-Own outright, dont want to farm out.
-1st mover advantage
-Water, power, road, no need for de-salination plant, port.
-Alpala 55 yrs.
-SOCIAL UNREST-all over S.America period of social unrest. SOCIAL LICENCE-UNREST, SOLGOLD NOT TOUCHED.
-RIO AMARILLO, PORVENIR, LA BLANCA high grade gold 600g/t -working up, complex geo,
Chical, La Hueca [running through quickly]. Cant catch which one Mather means when he said significant etc. So kindly listen.

-RE: MAJORS or means majors: DONT WANT DEVELOPMENT TOO FAR WITHOUT INVOLVEMENT FROM THEM.

-TOUCHES ON THE ISSUE OF LOCALS: "WHAT IT CAN DO FOR ECUADOR" [it as Solgold]
-working with govt - regulatory
-Alpala 55 years - REPLICATE
-THINK HE MENTIONED 5 or maybe it needs 5 deposits?
-Alpala high grade zone - pays for ....

-BIG CALL.
-Spending more than BHP on exploration. More geo*s than BHP.

-Most important copper co in the world.
-think he says that people will laugh.

This presentation by N.Mather is to a GOLD & ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT CROWD. He mentioned GOLDMAN. This was in Australia I think on 12.2.20


This is the most definitive of all the interviews I have heard so far. I cant put down everything as its too long and my notes have not taken in everything so best to hear.

In this presentation, he elucidates about:
FINANCING AND HOW IT IS BEING LOOKED AT OR PROGRESSING.
SOCIAL ASPECT
HOW MANY MORE PROSPECTS [5 SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT]
MAJORS
& SHARE PRICE D I S P A R I T Y.

He leaves no stone unturned as this is an investment crowd who are aware what they are looking for and the Q*s that need to be answered. So, the most definitive of the game plan.
Link:

Yes, it is a Goldman Investment Conference.
So, at the end of the day, it will come down to what Solgold can do for Ecuador in terms of their deposits as a coming mining jurisdiction? This Goldman Sachs Investment Conference ANSWERS everything.

I am not aware that Goldman Sachs Investment Conferences are open to the public. I believe they are for the investment industry ie fund managers, hedge funds. So, everything is now known of Solgold*s strategy. Not surprised that Solgold is now in gold, silver, copper and junior miners EFT*s.

[mknight] 06/11/2020 16:43

JL

Why would they choose to update on DGR and not RNS it ?

La hueca must have 2 or 3 drills done and dusted by now so we can asume they have found nothing of interest up to now . Blanca they probably are still awaiting asseys imo

[jlondon] 06/11/2020 16:32

N.Mather interview at Diggers & Dealers, 2019.

Mr Mather was interviewed on the sidelines by Market Herald and one can see the emblem on the right side of Mather as he is interviewed.

The style is very different to the way UK does it. Australian*s want to know point blank without asking as to what is holding up the SHARE PRICE and if Mather*s co is going to be one of the successful Australian co*s. Australians appear to be aware that Cascabel is a success. They also want to know about the community etc.

From my notes:
Mather talks about FUNDING. He cited that the PAYBACK is 4 years with IRR 27%. They need to raise $2.5bn. Mather gives the idea that such figures are attractive to lenders ie "short" payback 4yrs and IRR of 27% is pretty good. He talks of 10-15 years and Hannan talks of 10 years. I can reconcile the figures because whilst it may be 15 years, they have to pay back the lender so that means Solgold would have 10 yrs from the high grade zone alone.

He talks of PROJECT ECONOMICS that should turn things around ie share price. He also talked about VALUE VALLEY but at that time, I dont think he wanted to mention specifics but we all know now that "value comes from new discoveries" as per share price Angel*s John Meyer.

Mather also mentioned that they have good relations with the community and they are supportive of Solgold. I think I heard community? Please check and see what you get from the interview.

The link: [8.8.19] "Live at Diggers & Dealers-Nicholas Mather, CEO of Solgold. - 8.8.19 [Hotcopper Corporate Highlight]

My Comment:
What Mather said about project economics suggest funder*s expectations. This is where the majors at waiting for which is norm?

So, this is where everything will be revealed shortly. If Solgold can get through this, then they could go on with Mather*s vision for the co. If he cant, then of course, he could have no choice but to accede to a take-over. That is also norm.

Someone on the lse contacted solgold to ask about La Hueca & La Blanca and they said that where there is material news they will report but watch for upcoming Activities Report - they mean DGR wherein all the projects will be updated with info.

[jlondon] 06/11/2020 15:41

Thanks all.

As you know, I have been looking high and low for No4. We know:

1] Tier 1 Alpala

2] Porvenir- RedCloud got over-excited and told us potential for "Alpala 2."
I was quite taken aback that they gave the game away by even marking it Alpala 2 & didnt go round the houses to allude to but miss just short of saying 2.

3] R I O A M A R I L L O
N.Mather [Ref: 8 Oct 2020 RNS] said to the effect that with Tier 1 Apala, we believe Rio will follow. So, No 3.

4]As far as I can ascertain, it needs to be another porphyry and large too to move the needle. Pob on CEO.CA CGP today posted: "We need to know what is throughout the entire concessions as we DONT want to build a PLANT on ANOTHER PRORPHYRY. Aguinaga has NO DEEP HOLES yet. At Chinambito we need to DRILL MORE & Tandayama needs to be STERILISED." [Jason Ward]

This is in relation to the Mining Online[Mining Journal] article out today relating to an interview with Jason Ward as to accelerating the exploration - more "behemoths" to be uncovered in Ecuador, Jason believes.

So, could this be the NO4? If it is, then, it does make sense as it is near enough to Alpala and they can all be processed at Alpala. Angry Geo talked of Aguinaga and no one knew what was the latest. Now, we know that they want to drill deeper.

STRATEGY:
This is new so they must think that by re-inforcing more satellite discoveries in the Cascabel tenement, it will make it much harder to pick Alpala off. LoL, it might make it too expensive to pick off. This is just an obscure point but the critical point is to SAVE COSTS. Eg Rockfire is not going to set up plant which can c]ost $92m. Instead, they would truck the ore to Mt Wright which is being under-utilised. Same with Havieron in that ore will be trucked to Telfer, some 45km away. Telder plant is now on its last legs as there is not enough higher grade ore to process.

So, looks like they are THINKING AHEAD NOW. I am not sure about LA BLANCA & LA HUECA at this point as we [shareholders] need a drilling update.

LOOKS LIKE THEY WANT A DISTRICT-SCALE AT CASCABEL NOW?


MAJORS
From Liberum per the Times, the major wants to make an offer next year in Q2, 2021. There is a reason for this. I looked at the Solgold presentation and it shows the chart of what they will do when. Q2, 2021 is the time Alpala will be applying for the PERMIT. By Q2, 2020, conditional funding must ALSO be made clearer via preliminary agreements or such like as time is running on.

This may be kite-flying but nevertheless, it shows that majors want things PURFECT ie you apply and get the permit, you get the funding and let*s see what you can do and whether you can or cant get through like Twiggy at Fortescue or else there would be no Fortescue today ie no wonga, no vision of being a major.

We all know that Mather said the Solgold has achieved the $1bn re-rating [Business Focus interview yesterday] and that will around the 44.5p or 45p mark. If the BHP were to offer for Solgold, they would have to provide a premium as norm and they could start at their usual 22% say and if no, then raise it a bit more?

So, if anyone here is waiting for the take-over, then one can see how much roughly any major will be prepared to offer if there is NO COMPETITIVE BIDDING.

So, what are we here for? I am now quite certain that we are reaching the point wherein PSF & Conditional Update is due shortly - we will get a clearer picture then. I will post an interview of Mather from Australia and he had interesting things to say about this.

To me, if one has a lot of money in Solgold shares, they will be nervous as if everything is in 1 basket, the weighting is rather heavy.

Hence, why for me I am looking at how this plays out. If we are heading for 4 ALPALAS, then the FCF is going to be $1b each, aaah then we are talking FCF of majors like what Newmont and Barrick reported of $4bn guidance for the year for FCF with $1bn last qtr due to rising gold prices.

That means one does not need to throw $1m to make $100k. One can use X amount if the multiples are to the Y side.

LoL, if we look back, everyone should have piled in at 1.5p in those 1st days. But then, all we had was a presentation and modelling of which no one took any notice of but that has come in ie tonnage of 1-2bt with high grade zone and median main zone.

This is the crux if one wants to go all the way or part of the way etc. No wonder Mather said there are many exit points - qualified by IF the major does not take Solgold out early cheapish. Sorry not editing.

So, Mather was not having dreams but no figures when he told Mining Journal of his vision to emulate the growth of Fortescue. He mentioned Fortescue because that is about the one Australian co to become a major in its own right starting with just 1 project but adding more.

So, 4 TIER 1*s like APALA = 4 TIMES FCF of $4bn {Hannan said Alpala could produce $1bn FCF for 10 yrs and then $120m thereafter]. $4bn FCF would be what Newmont and Barrick just announced due to a big jump in FCF due to rising prices. So, yeah , NEEDS 4 TIER 1*s in theory.

Are we running ahead of ourselves? I dont think so as we or rather I am now thinking it out as to the rush now to get the BEST 5 as per Mather in his latest Business Focus interview yesterday?

Today*s Mining Journal interview with Jason Ward confirms that they are now moving firmly on to their MBO quickly and this thing about Aguinaga, Tanda & Chin means plans to expand Alpala for the years ahead and to PROVIDE MORE FEED TO THE O N E PLANT. All the drilling [test] is to achieve this aim of 4-5 DEPOSITS - Jason Ward said "BEHEMOTH" deposits in Ecuador. Would have loved to have read the whole article to pick out where exactly.

[lefrene] 06/11/2020 15:06

Perhaps Friday has a small tick up because it would take strong nerves to hold a short position on Solg over a weekend, you never know what rns might appear first thing on the Monday.