Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[gisjob2] 29/10/2020 06:33

Lowtrawler,
Agreed, I was thinking around 750m. No news in around a week will probably mean good news regarding additional depth.

[lowtrawler] 29/10/2020 05:24

Depends on the depth you mean. 750m is the minimum planned depth and that could be a week away, maybe. They hope it could go to 1500m and that would be a lot longer (pun intended).

[gisjob2] 28/10/2020 21:27

I reckon total depth at Porvenir could be a week away.

[lowtrawler] 28/10/2020 21:16

Mk, we need to get Porvenir and Rio proven up before inviting bids. At current levels of development, we could expect offers around 100p. In 5 months, 200p. Let's get the drills running faster.

[mknight] 28/10/2020 21:08

JL

Just a waiting game now . The bids will come in sooner or later .

[jlondon] 28/10/2020 20:18

So, from KAZ Minerals paying $900m real money for Baimskaya, remote Russia [smaller deposit & very much higher capex of $7bn], it means that Alpala, even at this same price
equates to £692 million [US$900m divided by 1.3 exchange rate]. Kaz therefore had to pay $900m just for the deposit & $7bn set aside to build the mine taking 7 years = US$7.9 billion!!! Mather has always said that just the infrastructure alone would save nearly $3b+ for Alpala.
====

Today, Solgold closed at 3 4 p with a market cap of £704m.
Hence, not surprised that Money Week quoted the BHP buying of Solgold shares at 45p.

==
IT MEANS THAT PORVENIR HAS NOT EVEN BEEN BUILT INTO THE SOLGOLD SHARE PRICE YET. As Mather said Alpala US$1bn Value Valley & Porvenir US$1bn Value Valley, smooth out per latest Red Cloud presentation of 22 Oct 2020. The $1bn rating has already happened for Alpala.

Wed, 28 Oct 2020.

[mknight] 28/10/2020 19:49

Only down 9 % at the end .Unbelievable when we have so much news coming . Lets get some assays from Povenir tomorrow .

[rougepierre] 28/10/2020 17:29

Copper the least bad performer of the day...

Still up 55% since 16 March and above the level on 31 August...

Performing better than gold and silver right now despite the economic jitters...

Augurs well...

[rougepierre] 28/10/2020 16:59

UT 159,876 at 34p...

[jlondon] 28/10/2020 16:26

Vladamir Kim per Wikipedia is a Kazah businessman and billionaire. Net Worth £579 million Sunday Times Rich List 2020. [Director of KAZ Minerals]

Oleg Novachuk, Chairman per Wikipedia is also a Kazah and previously Chairman of one of the largest private banks in Kazakhstan.

Kaz*s BAIMSKAYA has a JORC of 9.5Mt of copper at an average grade 0.43% cu copper and 16.5 MOZ gold at an average grade of 0.23% au gold.
hxxps://www.kazminerals.com/our-business/baimskaya/
vs Solgold Alpala MRE3: 9.9Mt Cu, 21.7Moz gold & 92.2 MOZ silver [7 Apr 2020 RNS].

My Comment:
So, comparing Solgold*s Alpala with Baimskaya, remote Russia shows that Alpala is bigger . Yet, in 2018, the valuation paid was $900m IN REAL MONEY.

I also read the Share Magazine version of the KAZ story of today and it also mentioned rising copper price and that this deal moves with the EV revolution and need for copper.

I note that this KAZ management buy-out is on a red day in the markets.
SO, WHAT MATHER SAID ABOUT $1BN for Alpala & $1BN for Provenir per Red Cloud Presentation on 22 Oct 2020 is accurate vs $900m for Baimskaya in 2018 in remote East Russia [REAL MONEY PAID].

Given Baimskaya has a CAPEX of $7bn vs much less for Solgold due to in-place infrastructure, HOW DOES THAT BECOME PROFITABLE? Answer: Probably given it will take 7 years to build, the price of copper will have to be much higher etc. And people talk of Solgold*s Alpala at $1bn as too much in 1 chat quarter and given the Baimskaya Capex is so much higher ie $900m cost to buy the undeveloped deposit+ $7bn to build= $7.9 billion.

[jlondon] 28/10/2020 16:09

"Top shareholders in Kaz Minerals launch a £3 billion buyout."-FT, 28 Oct 2020

The story goes like this: " Chairman [Novachuk] & director[Vladamir Kim] make an ALL-CASH OFFER to take the copper miner private.

They offered for 61% they did not own.

The two said that BAIMSKAYA copper mine which Kaz bought in 2018 for $900 million would be best undertaken away from public markets into a private co. The buying of Baimskaya, in a REMOTE PART OF EAST RUSSIA took shareholders by surprise and led to a SELL-OFF in the stock when announced.

Development of the mine is set to cost $7bn & take 7 yrs and one of the world*s largest undeveloped copper ASSETS.

My Comment:

Coming at this time is interesting as the copper price is beginning to rise etc from the improvement in China*s economy. However, given that even with an undeveloped asset in remote East Russia, it still fetched $900m, a bit short of the $1bn rating normally, Tier 1 jurisdiction and all that.

The cost of $7bn is also interesting - Nick Mather mentioned in his Red Cloud presentation that Alpala is near infrastructure, hence why the capex is so very much LOWER. As Mather said in his RedCloud presentation, Solgold has majors BHP, NCM & Franco Nevada on board.

In particular, one will realise that a COPPER ASSET is subject to a buy-out. Given that it is in a REMOTE PART of Russia, the Chairman & Director may be more versed with the authorities there given their names do suggest of that extraction?

Both Chairman & Director therefore had 39% and is in fact appears to be a management buy-out?

One will note that NO MAJOR has expressed interest for copper projects in remote parts of Russia etc?

So, that suggests that the Chairman & Director may have $7bn lined up or else rather risky buying without finance arrangements etc? That would be on top of the cash offer for Kaz at £3bn.

==
As for my BHP post relating to their investment proposal, I posted as I read comments that BHP may not be interested in Solgold or that they may want more proving etc. Well, BHP*s investment proposal was to take 75% of Solgold*s 85% of ENSA, leaving Solgold with 10%, even less than CGP*s stake of 15% in ENSA.

Also, the timing showed that BHP came in when ALPALA did NOT even have a Resource Statement at around Hole 17 of Alpala. [Dr Rohlach said to do 18-23 holes for resource statement].

[rougepierre] 28/10/2020 16:07

Don't worry mk...I've used it loads of times before...I can cover it easily, but with all the news flow before 25 November, why should I tie up cash I may want to use elsewhere (just look at the rest of the market...) or that I may be able to cash in for a handsome profit before settlement...

Why not use the MMs cash anyhow...they take enough of mine...

[wapping67] 28/10/2020 16:07

Agreed.....invest don’t speculate, asides they charged 0.13p on top which must be a decent APR for the MM

[mknight] 28/10/2020 15:56

Never buy on the never never imho

Maybe what caused some of the drop . Investors gambling mo ey they dont have .have to sell to pay back .. not good .

[lefrene] 28/10/2020 15:49

You'd think that with money being created on an industrial scale that gold would be going up. Is there an end of month thing going on, or are some players in need of ready cash?

[rougepierre] 28/10/2020 15:45

Bought another 39,000 on a T20 at 34p...

[jlondon] 28/10/2020 15:27

BHP Investment Proposal, 10 Oct 2016
In fact, the story was that after NCM had picked up shares twice, BHP on the weekend contacted Nick Mather that resulted in the proposal as above.

Of interest is that the proposal was that BHP take 75% of the 85% ENSA share, leaving Solgold with a 10% share & CGP 15%.

I checked at the time and it was at the stage of Hole 17*ish at Alpala.

Dr Rohlach, Chief Geo said 18-23 holes would suffice for an Resource Statement.

So, looking at the past, it may not occur to most people now that in fact, history tells us that BHP had literally offered for the co.

BHP would have been the operator with 75% share of ENSA with Solgold & CGP being the minority holders. The operator is usually one with 51% stake.
==
Very recently, Luminar had projects to the South West of Porvenir, S.Ecuador and one ,North of Porvenir. Today OROX is also now in South Ecuador. So...interest.

[lowtrawler] 28/10/2020 15:17

Lots of interesting snippets in the presentation. I think most people have already picked up on the bullish language, comments and pictures towards Porvenir and the finalisation for the $3bn Alpala provisional financing. I believe this confirms a positive outcome for 2 of our 3 expected blockbuster announcements over the next few weeks.

Pob had previously mentioned the yellow highlighted priority exploration sites. This starts to give us an idea where the drills will head next (once licenses are granted). It is notable that neither La Hueca or Blanca are yellow highlighted.

I found it interesting that they only stopped drill hole 1 at Porvenir because they wanted to commence hole 2 - they hadn't reached the end of mineralisation.

I found the hockey stick projected share price movement quite amusing - hopefully predicting our real path!

A few things to note about the importance of mining to Ecuador, brought out in the presentation and also reinforced by todays royalty proposal. It's also worth noting that employers pay a workers compensation tax of 15% on profits with 3% going to workers and 12% going to Central Government. It is a strong incentive for local communities to get behind the projects.

These comments reconfirm we will get positive news and positive price movement over the next few weeks. The only blockbuster announcement for which we are still awaiting evidence is Rio Amarillo.

[dozyduck] 28/10/2020 15:00

Maybe NM will take the hint. The market certainly will
From the KAZ offer "The Consortium also believes that KAZ Minerals' decision to dedicate efforts to a capital intensive strategy focused on long term growth remains the optimal long term st rategic path for KAZ Minerals. The Consortium recognises this may be misaligned with the preference of many investors in the mining sector.

-- Consequently, the members of the Consortium have concluded that KAZ Minerals' long term development of Baimskaya would be best undertaken away from public markets as a private company."

[rougepierre] 28/10/2020 14:40

From 13.03 to 13.10 it was only sells...264k...

[mknight] 28/10/2020 14:28

Rougepierre.

I am not panicking infact i have bought more but its fair to say we are 7.8% down as i type so someone is .

Lets see if you are right and its all mm,s that have pulled the price down to get some stock . It would be nice to close up today ......

[jlondon] 28/10/2020 14:05

M
The Nick Mather Red Cloud Presentation was conducted around 22 Oct 2020 from recall but only available to listen to, today, 28 Oct 2020.

It was interesting that at this point, I think the 2nd hole at Porvenir had started so in a sense the cores would have been available.

Therefore, N.Mather*s statements "Could be a Major Discovery", "Yielding Results" "Better than Alpala", Value Valley Alpala $1bn re-rated, Porvenir $1bn - Value Valley ..smooth out etc does appear to suggest that it is on objective ..rather than subjective? As I said, Alpala*s modelling was done before they had even drilled and it came out as 1-2 Billion Tonnes at 1.4cuEq. Indeed, it is now >2Bt and the high grade core is 1.4%cuEq from recall of the MRE.

The rest of the presentation had lots of details about Rio Amarillo etc. The funding part was also interesting.

So, just have to wait for the official RNS now as by today, Porvenir is now PAST 500m or should have past 500m.

JL Wed, 28 Oct 2020.