Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[jlondon] 29/10/2020 12:24

LT,

Alpala & Porvenir could be making $500m PBT each yr. From the conceptual figures, it was much higher just for Alpala alone but due to Canadian laws, those figures had to be removed due to TSX listing. They were in a previous presentation but removed and wiped out.

Any reference to look at? Thanks. Trying to get the PBT forward guidance.
==
Money Mail wrote an article about Yamana which is now also London-listed. It was started by an investment banker. He bought a mine in S.America that no one wanted. From there, he got 3 other mines going. Yamana*s mkt cap is around £4.2 billion.

So, its not that difficult to become a miner if one can get the initial capex for the 1st mine. Mentioning this in relation to Solgold as they might become a miner if X or Y happens.

Of course, its better to become a miner as No 10 ie Anto has a mkt cap of £9.9billion and Solgold is less than £1bn currently.

Are old-timers here in favour of going it alone or want to be taken out? That has been the discussion on the London South East since time began there.

Hence, we need to zero-in now on what is the potential profit of Alpala and Provenir per Solgold*s conceptual studies. They could not do any modelling on Provenir also due to TSX rules I suppose but one can say from N.Mather*s presentation, it could be bigger or the same as Alpala?
==
Just checked to try to find some figures. Hannan & Partners broker note of 19 Aug 2019: "Our model suggest a payback period of less than 4 yrs from 1ST PROD^, with FCF in the 1ST 10 YEARS averaging $1BN A YEAR & last 35 yrs at $120m as mine plan moved to lower grade zones."["TP £1.07"]

So, that was what I remembered ie its higher but the PBT was NOT given.

[lowtrawler] 29/10/2020 12:16

JL, at the end of the day, money talks.Under current tax laws, 3% PBT is distributed to workers. If another 3% PBT now goes to the local community.....Alpala and Porvenir could be making $500m PBT each year. Imagine what $30m would do to those local communities, on top of the better employment, infrastructure and opportunities.

[jlondon] 29/10/2020 12:08

LT
OK, so it is the tribal people.

I read that ActVis are scaring the tribal people with what, it was not spelled out. However, even in the USA in the past, they frightened people by saying that fracking will mean that their taps would explode.

So, lets assume that if all the forests are kept without any bit mined or having oil exploration, then, if the IMF can no longer extend bottomless money, will it not mean that recent reports suggest it could turn into VenZ?

If that be the case, then even the Ecuadorians of the town types will also suffer?

Will it not mean that in desperation, they will all have to return to the forests to live off foraging? I also read that it is hard to survive just on foraging alone? This is always bar the elite.

[lowtrawler] 29/10/2020 12:05

JL, we are talking about the small groups of indigenous people. Under the Constitution, each local indigenous population controls some aspects required for mining and central government cannot overrule them. They distrust central government and large miners.SOLG have been working in their target areas with the local population and earning their trust. If the local population can now get a share of the mining royalties, on top of the existing 3% profit share, it is likely to make the difference.

[alwaysevolving] 29/10/2020 12:04

Great post RP.

[lefrene] 29/10/2020 11:57

LT, I suspect that once some tribal areas start to see the economic benefits of mining, then other tribal areas will want some of that too. Cars and washing machines and indoor plumbing will likely trump losing 2 or 3% of your local forest.

[jlondon] 29/10/2020 11:55

LT
I have checked further about the indigenous people. Recently, some of them got killed in their ...against the govt as they did not want austerity ie fuel subsidies taken off etc per IMF stipulation for the loan of a few billions.

And they also dont want this and that ie austerity and they dont want oil or mining either.

So, are we talking about Ecuadorians in town TYPES or are we talking of the small groups of indigenous people?

--
RS
I do not have the breakdown of small pi*s but it is always assumed that they are not sufficient in size to make a big difference in any proxy fight. However, one will have to check the register in Brisbane to know who exactly is who or other checks but they may be behind time or not as accurate.

[lowtrawler] 29/10/2020 11:50

Arcadian, Ecuador central government is 100% behind mining. The Ecuador prime minister does not need any encouragement. The Ecuador Constitution places local communities as superior to central government on a number of items relating to mining. There are powerful environmental lobby groups in Ecuador who encourage local opposition to mining. The political fight in Ecuador has miners and central government on one side with environmental campaigners on the other. Both sides need to convince local communities to support them.The proposal for mining royalties to be spent locally is highly significant when it comes to winning local support and may prove to be the turning point in this war.

[jlondon] 29/10/2020 11:49

LT
Yes, your % is correct. The reason for my post is that I was always aware that institutions held the cards in a proxy vote if there is a tender offer.

It is in answer to an earlier post that was brought up. As said, I was talking about small term investor sentiment over the weekend and nothing to do with who will decide Solgold*s fate.

BHP per most commentators is the most likely to offer a buy-out, in which case, even if all agreed vs Mather/DGR/Tenstar*s 20%, it will be down to the 5%+ holder ie Blackrock.

Any successful bid must be have 75% votes to clinch a buy-out.

[rougepierre] 29/10/2020 11:42

Hi JL...part of your answer may be in this...

"% of float held by institutions: 18.3%"

Surely that will include holdings like mine, held in Nominees by II and other Brokers...?

[lowtrawler] 29/10/2020 11:38

JL, the big unknown is where BHP sit. If they are with Nick, he controls 33%. If they are with CGP and Newcrest, they control 33%. I think Nick is a shrewd enough operator to keep them onside. If so, it means nothing will happen until BHP want it to happen.

[jlondon] 29/10/2020 11:25

Who will decide the fate of Solgold?

1] Financiers: $3bn funding for Alpala which Ingo is undertaking per N.Mather.
If that comes through, then, Solgold could be independent. As the German article said, Solgold would be one of the top 10 raw material producers in the next 10 years.

2] Proxy fight:
Cornerstone has said N.Mather, DGR and Tenstar own 20% of Solgold shares.
BHP & NCM approximately 13% each = 26%.
Cornerstone around the 8% if they havent sold some.
Total: 54%

From Yahoo:
% held by insiders: 55.32%
% held by institutions: 8.17%
% of float held by institutions: 18.3%
No of institutions holding stock: 30

Top Mutual Fund holders:
Franklin Gold & Precious Metals 1.28%
Invesco Openheimer Gold & Special Minerals Fund1.14%
IShares MSCI Global SILVER MINERS ETF
IShares EAFE Small Cap ETF
Global X COPPER MINERS ETF
College Retirement Fund
iShares Total International stock ETF
Sprott Junior Miners ETF
Global X GOLD EXPLORERS ETF
SPDR International Small Cap



One of the biggest holders is Blackrock at approx 5%+ the last time I looked but they are not listed under mutual funds.

So, where do shareholders come in - they never have as they are not the big holders and never have been.
=
N.M, DGR & Tenstar at 20% holding per Cornerstone*s data will not be sufficient to withstand a takeover, hence the institutions with a major 5%+ holder could become the tie-breaker or more accurately king-maker to secure any potential buy-out or not vs the majority vote?

[arcadian] 29/10/2020 11:24

I do hope that LT has sent a copy to Ecuador`s Prime Minister.

Rouge

You make a powerful investment case but I think we are all waiting for the quantum leap of POR and RIO to take us to the next level of irrefutable value.

[rougepierre] 29/10/2020 10:47

From my post 'elsewhere'...

Nick has never ruled out a takeover bid, otherwise why did he appoint Citi, specifically for 'bid defense' (US spelling...)

He has, however, in various ways, said or implied that it would take a high price for it to happen...

That can't be bad for any of us...

Look at the growing serious discussion among authoritative commentators about, inter alia:

Massive prospective copper shortages in the future with the EV boom (not to mention a raft of green infrastructure projects soon to come down the pipe from Western Governments to rebuild economies post COVID...)

No new Tier 1 copper finds outside Alpala (so far)

Major miners' depleting resources, not only in copper but especially in gold...9 years total life left in existing mines...

Growing assumptions of increased M&A activity in the mining space, together with 'buybacks' e.g. HGM and KAZ

Major miners' declared strategies to replenish declining resources, primarily through exploration or acquisition

Rationalisation of existing portfolios to move away from 'dirty' commodities, especially coal and oil, with an increasing focus on copper, nickel, lithium, rare minerals, together with gold and silver...

A raft of private and corporate monies stimulated by global Quantitative Easing, looking for a long term home, at historically low interest rates (indeed penal rates, with negative real and actual rates penalising the holding of cash and bonds)

And a concerted need by the developed economies to resolve the massive debt problems caused by post 2008 QE and COVID financing, i.e. 'fiat money' which either needs to be reset (quasi gold standard) or inflated away. Either of these WILL precipitate a gold/silver boom...

So...there is an undoubted need for much more copper that isn't going away...the US equity and debt markets are 'bubbles' waiting to explode, just like the tech bubble in 2000 and sub prime in 2006...gold (and inevitably silver) will boom (otherwise why have JPM ($900m fine) and several leading banks (see today's news), spent so much money, time and energy manipulating the precious metals markets for so many years...

And there is one company perfectly placed for this perfect storm...even in Alpala alone, we have prospectively among the world's biggest silver, gold and copper mines...

And Porvenir and Rio may be even bigger...!!!

Keep the faith...its only a matter of time...

AIMO as usual...

[rougepierre] 29/10/2020 10:47

Sound post LT

[lowtrawler] 29/10/2020 10:27

The share price is disappointing for anyone who believes in Ecuador as a supportive mining jurisdiction. If SOLG were based in Australia with the same finds and resources, we would be well over 200p.

SOLG are at the forefront of explaining how Ecuador are changing to embrace mining and become a good economic partner to miners. The recent Board appointments are significant with this. The Community engagement that SOLG places front and foremost is significant.

Chile, Venezuela and Ecuador are all struggling to demonstrate the stability and mining friendliness required to convince investors. This is why we sit at a huge discount to the price we should be at.

If Ecuador are genuinely ready to embrace mining, and demonstrate their commitment over the coming years, the jurisdiction discount will reduce. The SOLG share price will potentially benefit as much from this as from new discoveries. It will likely provide a second wave for share price increases once Alpala, Porvenir and Rio are in production demonstrating their importance to the Ecuador economy.

[arcadian] 29/10/2020 10:24

DD et al

Looking at recent trading and the deals struck at ARS and KAZ it is
easy to appreciate that Dozy is right in that insiders are in the driving seat. They are beginning to take stances re the next few years of gold and copper investments and are lining up their interests accordingly. SOLG`s fate will be decided not by the myriad of small investors longed for by MIRA above but by bigger interests which are better financed and have more at stake than anyone on this thread. We must await their pleasure although NM will do his best to allure and provoke them, teasing as his drill bit becomes the envy of the world.

Pipsqueak? but definitely amateur

[mirabeau] 29/10/2020 09:25

The flow of monies coming into SOLG compared to Greatland is beyond pitiful. In fact it's pathetic . No matter how many presentations SOLG transact there is at present zero investor excitement regarding what we have

I'm not sure what type of news event will trigger a change in how SOLG is perceived by the market

Frustrating and indeed frustrated

[wapping67] 29/10/2020 09:18

The appointment of the three new directors to improve corporate governance etc etc appears to have coincided with a period of no news. I wonder if this is just a coincidence or a new approach to controlling news flow ?

[lowtrawler] 29/10/2020 08:51

gisjob2, I believe SOLG intend to do regular updates as the drill holes progress at Porvenir and so won't be surprised if we get an update this afternoon.

[jlondon] 29/10/2020 08:36

#26720

The top 10 copper producers:
Codelco
Freeport McMoran
Glencore
BHP
Southern Copper
Rio Tinto
Polska Miedz
Anglo-American
First Quantum
Antofagasta [Production 370,000 tonnes]
Source: Copper Investing News 2017 [latest I could find currently]

Currently, Antofagasta*s mkt cap is £9.99 BILLION.
Newmont has just increased their dividend.
So, from the German article on Solgold: "What more do you want", if Solgold remains independent and is potentially a top 10 producer of raw materials in the next 10 years, it could join the copper group as above and IF as norm will have to pay a dividend?

[cbeadle] 29/10/2020 08:18

Encouraging bounce back this morning

[gisjob2] 29/10/2020 06:33

Lowtrawler,
Agreed, I was thinking around 750m. No news in around a week will probably mean good news regarding additional depth.

[lowtrawler] 29/10/2020 05:24

Depends on the depth you mean. 750m is the minimum planned depth and that could be a week away, maybe. They hope it could go to 1500m and that would be a lot longer (pun intended).