Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[jlondon] 01/11/2020 21:27

"Ecuador to hire investment bank to VALUE Llurimagua."-BNAmericas,26.8.20
hxxps://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/ecuador-to-hire-investment-bank-to-value-llurimagua

"An INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT BANK will make an evaluation of the reference price-the finance minstry has a list of co*s registered to VALUE STATE ASSETS."

"Ecuador will prepare a VIRTUAL DATA ROOM with the geological and technical information of the project so that interested parties can present their offers."

"According to the source, Enami*s share in Llurimague would be of interest to "SEVERAL TOP TIER COMPANIES INCLUDING AUSTRALIA*S BHP."

"Would produce 210,000t/y per year for 27 years."

[Enami is the govt with 51% share & Codelco 49%]

My Comment:
This is the backdrop to the article I just posted that the price is "at least US$600m" for Enami [Ecuador govt] share of their 51%.

1]Posting this backdrop as proof that ALL ASSETS ARE V A L U E D and not buyers and sellers decide and that all are penny stocks. Valuation is done by international investment banks even in Ecuador.

2]It has taken from 26.8.20 to 30.10.20 to produce this VALUATION of "at least US$600m" per the 30.10.20 BNAmericas article just posted as above.

3]Given that the valuation has been done by an international investment bank, it sets a BENCH-MARK FOR SOLGOLD*S ALPALA which is nearby. As said, 100% of Llurimagua will be US$1.2 bn [simple school maths.]

4]It has been questioned whether BHP is interested. From the above, the Ecuador govt says that they are interested as well as other top tier co*s. They must know since these top-tier co*s have been applying for Ecuador exploration licences and have set up office in Ecuador but as yet, none of them have declared a big find.

All good and interesting.
=====
"Plans advance to form Llurimagua copper.."-BNAmericas,28 Sep 2020
hxxps://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/plans-advance-to-form-llurimagua-copper-although-with-setbacks

"The govt said that MAJOR CO*S INCLUDING BHP would be interested in acquiring the Llurimagua stake. The source said that the bank could be one of those who advised the country in the RECENT successful process of RE-NEGOTIATING ITS FOREIGN DEBT. President Lenin Moreno*s govt plans to hire an investment bank to assess the VALUE of the 51% stake."

My Comment:
The investment bank that assessed the value of Llurimagua on Fri, 30 Oct 2020 earlier said to be international investment bank would appear to have to be the top 1-2 in the world that handle top level finance debt negotiations. Wouldnt be surprised if it is Goldman or JP Morgan as they are Tier 1?

[jlondon] 01/11/2020 20:40

History records:

1] Sunday, 1 Nov 2020
Complete NEWS-BLACKOUT about Ecuador relating to critical news about Constitutional Law on 3 rd Dec 2020 to be voted on to close the said loopholes used by activists per former Deputy Minister of Ecuador via a BNAmericas interview. As posted, the former Deputy Minister of Ecuador in the interview said that the activists are funded and the more extreme ones get funding from abroad and love of nature is not the impetus?

2] News Blackout about Llurmigua[Junin near Alpala] sale by the govt [51% majority stake] for "at least US$600m" without PFS in the Intag Valley [disputed area]. Alpala is not in the Intag Valley. School maths means that 100% of Junin has a value of US$1.2bn and the govt is going to sell via an auction. This news means that M & A will show who is the buyer.

The activists is NOT a new event but from the days even when Solgold started first drilling in 2013. More importantly, THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURTS HAVE SAID THAT ALL MINING LICENCES ISSUED WILL BE OK so that means a sea-change to mining rights since 2013 which is crucial.

3] Mirador and Fruta del Norte, both are producing both gold and copper. Mirador is a Chinese project but nothing heard about any issues with tribal etc.

--
The news black-out is on the London South East Solgold forum and CEO.CA CGP re:above. Instead, talk is about filling gaps - I read that gaps is not necessary to be filled. With news flows expected on PFS/funding, Porvenir assays and other sites like La Blanca, La Hueca etc, it would not be the norm for any filling?

Posting to see what happens tomorrow.

However, one said that when bought backs are done, then talk-up will occur.

Let*s see if the red button [RNS] comes tomorrow [or this week] or intra-day as news is due and an INTERVIEW is also due but I do not know if the interview is from N.Mather?


One learns from observation and how the past pattern is repeating but this time round, Solgold is now aware of traders patterns and therefore gives very little away in terms of timelines.

Interesting about Kaz Minerals going private via a management buy-out at this time as they are essentially a copper player. So, copper M & A is starting.

Colonel Drake: "The MM*s acted around 34p, trying to buy stock into that gap fill will be NIGH IMPOSSIBLE....and remember the stock was bought hard into the 38*s and 39*s and so you know where the demand is..." 7:51pm on London South East Solgold forum.

@21.14" Col Drake: Not all gaps get filled. In fact, in most cases that involve transformational news [eg MAJOR NEWS CATALYSTS] the GAPS NEVER GET FILLED."
Sun, 1 Nov 2020 @8.40pm.

[jlondon] 01/11/2020 19:39

LoL

ZH has just tweeted:
"Variant Perception Research Macro Chief Discusses the Reiflation Trade and the LOOMING COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE."

7 mins ago, Sun 1 Nov 2020

[ZH has 818,600 followers]

===
My post as above was picked up elsewhere from a commodity fund manager relating to copper but from Variant Perception Research also as a sub-topic.

[jlondon] 01/11/2020 19:31

"The Age of Copper."-Variant Perception Research, 30.10.20

"Copper will play a pivotal role in the clean energy revolution sweeping across the world.

The Chinese COPPER WHALE - China consumes MORE THAN HALF of the WORLD*S COPPER b u t only owns 5 % of GLOBAL COPPER RESOURCES."


[Click for the report]
===

"3 gold experts - including one that studied its response to every election for nearly 50 yrs - share why its the real winner regardless of the election outcome."-Business Insider, 23 hrs ago.



====
Kitco:
"The election is just days away, is gold the biggest winner?"-23 hrs ago



My Comment:
As Count Monte Cristo said about China and copper.

[mknight] 01/11/2020 18:29

Mirabeau

Now you have had the weekend to think about things may i suggest buying back half . Seems best of both worlds to me .

If there is no news tomorrow am you might even get the chance to buy back at less than you sold which would be good for you .

[goodgrief] 01/11/2020 18:17

Good luck Mirabeau. Think I might shut my eyes (sit on my hands) for a month or two and hope precious metals and copper miners keep my wealth intact. Good luck to us all!!

[jlondon] 01/11/2020 17:47

P.S

In the US, some very big cities run out of money and they have what you call GOVT shutdown ie no rubbish collection and rats running all over the place, City Hall closed ie council workers all not paid, all Courts etc also not paid. In short, everything stops. As I said, if all of govt shuts down and they cant get any money without giving up assets, then in the finality, people will have to go back to square 1 and forage in the forests for food etc which is hard. In VenZ, this has happened and no meds etc unless one has foreign currency and it was said that other countries could follow. So, desperate situ calls for desperate measure now. Just logic as any govt would have approached all the agencies to ask if they can borrow more and perhaps the answer may have not been positive?

So, Ecuador must be close to the money running out at some time and the IMF may not give out more as they have so many countries to help. G7 is going to meet relating to this shortly.

Ecuador also knows that the COPPER supply crunch is coming and therefore Junin was put on sleep mode until such time ie moth-ball it. As its an asset that majors want [BHP is interested from what I just looked up], it means that the govt kept the 51% as majors do NOT want to be the minority partner but rather the operator at more than 50% for control.

Interestingly, Junin has NOT got even the PFS and yet it is going to govt open auction for AT LEAST US$600m. Its not going for a song as the govt knows China needs copper. So, it is very clever of Junin NOT to spend on PFS as this means that any major will have to spend on PFS & FS etc. This means a much higher price without wonga spent on PFS which can be expensive. JUNIN IS GOING TO BE SOLD WITHOUT PFS. Mather did a Q & A some time ago and he said there is no need for PFS for any deposit to be sold.

Solgold has already SPENT US$187 million on exploration of Alpala, MRE #3 and Franco*s $100m will help with PFS, FS and development decision with another $50m on offer on the same terms ie from 1%NSR to 1.5% NSR. So, TOTAL IS US$337 MILLION.

Porvenir is both a surface deposit and a underground deposit. Why? It starts from 15m and up to 400-500m is considered surface and open pit. Then, from 500m odd, it goes onto 1,500m like Alpala. So, cost of surface deposit can be mined first. I do not know whether it will be split in o/p and ug or done together. It will depend on the grades nearer surface and deeper.

"Prior consultation law may spur mining in Ecuador."-BNAmericas, 5 days ago.
"The law must be approved, by mandate of the Consitutional Court by Dec 13, 2020."
[I posted this earlier which is to close the loopholes used by activists].

So, this govt selling of Junin [Llurimagua] on Fri, 30 Oct 2020 does suggest that the govt is moving on. Codelco, the 49% partner in Junin is one of the world*s largest copper producers but it too needs new projects. Interesting that the news about Junin came out on Fri, 30 Oct 2020 even before the Dec 13, 2020 date.

[mknight] 01/11/2020 16:27

Jl

Well done great news . It makes it easy
For some of us to work out .. For every tier 1 project its a billion .

Lets hope we will have at least 3 soon.

School maths says 3 billion or 1.50 a share .

[the count of monte_cristo] 01/11/2020 08:01

The Chinese have no problem funding the project to the tune of $1.4 billion USD. The world needs long life, high production copper mines and there are becoming fewer and fewer of them. The new tech that is being deployed is a game changer because, like a magic eye, it is revealing all these vast, untapped deposits, hidden beneath the ground in Ecuador. Twenty odd years ago or even ten years ago, these deposits would have been very difficult to find, or just pot luck. The advancement in the technology is great, but the problem is that due to the depressed prices the mining industry hasn't been actively and aggressively searching as it should have been these last 10 years, instead the majors have been more interested in cannibalising existing deposits and projects. This lack of supply will have the following consequences;

1. Higher prices for copper
2. Increased takeover activity
3. A scramble for projects and assets
4. Eventually a mania in copper exploration stocks and mining companies
5. Countries adding the metal as a strategic asset and buying up projects globally through ever larger and more powerful state owned entities, China and India in particular.
6. Continuing massive investments in poorer nations by the Chinese who have these strategic assets
7. Environmental conflicts and unsettlement of indigenous people and instability in some countries who have greedy political systems in place.
etc...

[mknight] 01/11/2020 07:44

Thanks the count of monte cristo.

It would seem there are some simularities between Mirador and Porvenir .

I note mineralisation started at 22m in
Mirador and 15m at Porvenir.Both seem to contain Gold..Silver and Copper and looking on the map it would seem they are pretty close .

[mknight] 31/10/2020 13:40

Thanks JL

Lets hope lurker 5 is happier

JL you seemed to missed out the value of Copper based on your numbers is also free .And the silver i hear someone cry .

Lets see what NM is going to give us next week . I have a sneaky feeling for Blanca .Pure Gold

NM said along time back that Blanca my fund Alpala . And why the about turn on Blanca what did they find amongst the rubble to do an about turn and decide to drill after all . .

[jlondon] 31/10/2020 13:23

#26871 "Ceo said Franco deal value $3bn." [Thanks to FSAwatcher]
#26870 "Franco did not pay Solgold $35 gold in the ground" [Lurker5]

Just simple maths: Mather said in a Mining Journal interview [posted much earlier] that Alpala has 8 5 MOZ gold EQUIVALENT.

So, $3bn divided by 85MOZ = $35 per ounce as in the ground. Just a perspective to test the historical.

How would Solgold or us investors know how much is the current going price if we do not view it from either M & A or deals? I have posted the link before of M & A for the last 15 years and gold in the ground is around that figure range or more. Rockfire*s broker report quoted $35 in the ground. Where did the broker get that from? It would be from recent deals and this broker quoted the Franco deal. Just a rough guide and just one metric.

N.Mather said in his Red Cloud presentation a few days ago that Alpala Value Valley is $1 billion and Porvenir $1bn. Even Asiamet*s CEO says co*s with Tier 1 get $1bn re-rating & NM showed in the price charts before in previous presentation. Solgold has a mkt cap of £709million @34.25p.

So, £709m = $921 million [1.3 FX] HENCE WHY THE RE-RATING HAS HAPPENED just for Alpala & nothing priced in yet for Porvenir.

=========

"Solgold gets $100m injection from Franco Nevada."-Mining.com 14 Sep 2020


From the article, it says Solgold gets $100m injection to fund "FINAL FEASIBILITY & DEVELOPMENT DECISION."

For the $100m, Solgold has to give Franco "guaranteed perpectual 1% NSR."
A further $50m can be given at Solgold*s discretion and that means that Solgold has to give Franco 1.5% NSR [net smelter royalty].

My Comment:
So, Solgold has $50m more if they want it at their discretion.

It is interesting that Franco has GIVEN Solgold $100MILLION UPFRONT IN SEP 2020 when the mine will only be up in 2025 per the article.

Did Franco consider:
Mine will only be up in 2025, 5 yrs from now. We are told here that nothing happens until the mine is up but Franco has already paid upfront for tomorrow ie 2025 today. Market is forward looking.

Risk-activists [mining in Ecuador] and all that-naysayers.

Risk- No funding and all that -naysayers.

Risk-What if an asteroid hits Alpala & it disappears etc. There are many what ifs and despite all the what if*s, Franco has GIVEN Solgold $100m and said if you want another $50m, you can have it and NSR goes from 1% to1.5%.

Risk-all other scare views as opposed to $100m in REAL MONEY GIVEN. Surely, Franco, with a market cap of $34.6billion @C$181.59 has management accountants, tier1 investment bankers etc working on these deals? They need to document all the figures and the deal would have to be "fair value" as norm.

Franco is a publicly listed co and they have to do due-diligence and they have gone to Ecuador to do so.
=A PERSPECTIVE & COUNTER-CHECK:

BHP paid 45p for Solgold shares which again is worked by finance experts for fair value.
NCM paid 41p for Solgold shares earlier to BHP - again worked by finance experts.

School maths: Solgold at 34.25p = £709m mkt cap or US$921 million.
So, how much is 45p? Answer: $1.21bn.

SO, COME & GO, NO MATTER HOW ONE WORKS THE FIGURES, IT IS INDUSTY NORM THAT A TIER 1 DEPOSIT GET A $1BN RATING per norm.

BHP*s 45p buy-in for Solgold shares equates to $1.21bn [see above cals] divide by 85 MOZ GOLD EQUIV = US$14.23 an ounce gold IN-THE-GROUND as a quick check or perspective [GOLD-IN-GROUND PAID BY BHP]
Nothing wrong in perspective. Otherwise, how does one know how much it represents or whether it is value? All commodities are priced in US$.

Dyor. IMHO. Please check.
Ref: "NICK MATHER: WE*VE GOT 11 MORE WHERE THAT CAME FROM.."-Mining Journal, 22 Nov 2018 Put this title into the search engine to check wherein Mather said Alpala has 8 5 MOZ gold EQUIV. [all in]

[pob69] 31/10/2020 12:13

Articles profiling presidential candidates of interest to all extractive companies in country SOLG $SOLG $SOLG.L #porvenir #cascabel #ecuador $CGP

[pob69] 31/10/2020 12:11

Advertorial article but nevertheless interesting SOLG $SOLG $SOLG.L #porvenir #cascabel #ecuador $CGP

"Caring for the Environment, one of the pillars of SolGold"

[mknight] 31/10/2020 11:50

Lurker5

I never said they did .i said the average price for gold in the ground was 40 Dollars per oz .

I think you will find JL said they did .

If you reread the posts then you can apoligise

I am not Mckn either

Interesting you tell people to get their facts right and then post something getting your facts completly wrong in that you are talking on a different subject .

[fsawatcher] 31/10/2020 11:05

ceo said franco deal value alapala at $3bln

so that under £2bln for solg

a bout 80p for alapala is wot he sayin on 85%

porvinor gonna be nuther 80p innit

150p and it bhp's

180p and it barracks

[lurker5] 31/10/2020 09:56

McKn FNV did NOT pay Solg $35/oz for 'gold in the ground'. It paid Solg $100 for 1% of its total gold a copper production (at whatever price it commands at the time) spread over 55 years of an 'estimated' total of 'about' 7-8 Mt of copper and 'about' 12Moz of gold. (exact figure buried somewhere in 435 pages of PEA) There is no way that can be related to a value anyone (or even FNV) would pay for Solg's approx 20Moz of gold 'in the ground' and approx 11Mt of copper. Yet another display of completely muddled thinking this board could do without.

[mknight] 31/10/2020 08:54

FUNDING JUST GOT SO MUCH EASIER.

once Porvenir is proved as a discovery then any Funding needed for Apala just got so much easier .

[mknight] 31/10/2020 08:19

Assay results Porvenir .

The reason NM is going to realise all of hole 1 is because this way he can give the market the exact results rather than taking a small portion eg. 100 meters at x y or z . This is SUPER positive and will allow for some number crunching by those who are able .

[mknight] 31/10/2020 05:25

Thanks the count of monte cristo.

China construction straight from the horses mouth .

[the count of monte_cristo] 31/10/2020 05:14

Need the assay results to confirm the grades at Porvenir.

I live in Changsha, China...where? Exactly, it is an 8m population city, and rapidly growing, when I drive out to the train station it's a 30-minute ride from my apartment. For that 30 minute ride it's just construction, after construction. Same story in Foshan, Guangdong province where I moved from in August. More copper will be used in the next 30 years than in the last 300 years combined, where will it all come from?

What I like about SOLG is the technology they have deployed to find these new copper-gold resources. The other area of the world I like for copper exploration is the Kalahari, some micro-cap stocks on AIM worth researching, IMHO.