Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[dozyduck] 14/10/2020 09:05

Note the vast disparity between Liberum's and Hannam's ex-Porvenir 'targets'. Hannam, like all bucket shops, uses the spurious NPV based 'targets', along with 'sum of parts' guesses for other bits - neither of which are ever reached in practice and are the mark of the inexperienced analysts who are really puffing salesmen.
No one either, has mentioned the heavy chart resistance areas between 38 and 40p going back to 2017 which are all that is needed o explain the current pullback.

PS - Key piece from Liberum's note. This explains why speculation on here re any take-over price is misplaced
"Our 55p price target for SolGold is based on what we believe BHP or any other acquirer should be willing to bid, based on generating a required rate of return on certain long-run copper and gold price assumptions. None of these assumptions tend to be made public by mining companies."

[mknight] 14/10/2020 09:01

Some heavy buying without an increase in share price

[mam fach] 14/10/2020 08:57

Another don't kick yourself - for not buying in the first place.

[mknight] 14/10/2020 07:42

Lowtrawler if we are raising money then forget the Rns,s until after .all these broker notes at once .hmm

[pob69] 14/10/2020 07:38

new Hannan note on the Porvenir new SOLG $SOLG $SOLG.L #porvenir #cascabel #ecuador $CGP

"...Our published target price remains the same at 128p, more than 3x the current share price, despite a ~350% rally from a low of 11p in mid-March. Our recently upgraded DCF for SOLG’s attributable share of its flagship Alpala project remains ~US$4.3bn (8% WACC), to which we apply a target P/NAV of 0.8x.
For SOLG’s wider Ecuadorean exploration portfolio, we continue to assign a
conservative valuation of US$75m. However, on the basis of highly encouraging initial commentary, we acknowledge increasing upside risk to this estimate if Porvenir lives up to its early promise.

[lowtrawler] 14/10/2020 07:35

I know our news onslaught is targeting Canada but I thought we'd at least have 1 RNS for UK time.

[mknight] 14/10/2020 07:34

Lowtrawler

They would not go below 10 percent .

The ideal time to raise funds is now When you can get the money .

Anything can happen later as NM found out last time and ended up raising money at 21p when he could have done it at 38p.

Remember better to kick yourself for taking profits rather than kicking yourself for not .

[lowtrawler] 14/10/2020 07:29

MK, both Newcrest and BHP have anti dilution clauses which prevent them going below 10%. The corporate governance storm that would kick off if he attempted to do anything along the lines you suggest would be like nothing you have ever seen. It is a complete non starter. The time to raise funds will be once Porvenir and Rio have had a dozen holes drilled. If they are as good as we think, the share price will be closer to 100p than 40p and so an equity raise will be cheaper.

[mirabeau] 14/10/2020 07:24

thanks P69. Just reposted your post on LSE. Hope that's ok. You've been referenced

[mknight] 14/10/2020 07:11

Thanks pob69

JL made the case for Alpala at 55p

Lowtrawler sleeps at night with his shed load of solgold shares because he knows at worst his shares are worth 55p.

I am prepared to pay up to 55p for more shares . So everybody happy .

[mknight] 14/10/2020 07:03

Swanvesta. I am looking for answers to my questions having seen some very large offers at 39p all of which and more have been snapped up .. So i ask myself why ?

One of my assumptions is the need to protect NM from Cornerstone BHP and Newcrest. IF NM could just dilute them 10% then he may Remain on the throne . Where money is involved this is a nasty game and we are talking billions .

Extra drilling is needed so he has a perfect excuse, as we dont want to be short of money . So my conclusión this morning is after the last raise at 21p which was very profitable the institutions are crazy to be involved at around 38p .There is one more point NM made a very poor judgement last time and left himself short of money i dont think he will do it again .The last last point is of course DGR news that they would be raising money .

[pob69] 14/10/2020 07:02

Mew Liberum note on the Porvenir new SOLG $SOLG $SOLG.L #porvenir #cascabel #ecuador $CGP

"Our current valuation of 55p only accounts for the Alpala discovery, but if
something of similar size is found at Porvenir, we would likely raise our price
target closer to a £1."

[lowtrawler] 13/10/2020 22:56

swanvesta, the $50m from FNV can only be used for Alpala. If they have a 2nd big find at Rio or La Hueca, they will need to raise funds for development. They will have sufficient funds for a few months and so it's unlikely they will do a fund raise this year but it will happen. Pointless doing it just to dilute BHP et al. They have anti dilution clauses which would kick in before it was effective.

[swanvesta] 13/10/2020 22:28

Why would NM dilute shareholders when he's been making a lot of noise about not doing that? And he still has $50m from FNV if he wants it.

[mknight] 13/10/2020 20:42

Greenelf .

Yes we can dream , the question is why no news . Why Has NM held this one back ?

Logically no news because they have not found anything of interest but you never know . Eliza answered my email but just said they would inform the market when there is something to report .

[greenelf] 13/10/2020 20:25

La Hueca success with completed assays...dare we dream of it?

[mknight] 13/10/2020 19:08

Many thanks.

Huge volume today , Cornerstone tomorrow rejecting our offer . Will BHP buy them on Thursday ? Along with Newcrest shares then make a hostile bid for Solgold ? Or will a deal be done for just for Alpala ? Will NM raise monies to dilute cornerstone . BHP and Newcrest .

What about the large late trades and the 1.3 million UT . I saw 4 lots of 250k at 39p which were taken out by a 700k buy and then after hours we had more massive trades .at or around 39p .. who was selling and why ? They all got snapped up .

Loads going on behind the scenes just wish i knew what .

[mirabeau] 13/10/2020 18:57

mkn

8.50am-9.05am

and again at

5.30pm-5.45pm

[mknight] 13/10/2020 18:51

What times he speaking Mirabeau?

[mirabeau] 13/10/2020 18:40

What a pity I'm not a geologist. I know this news is favourable but how favourable is the question. I know Porvenir is a massive system and with 6 rigs targeting future exploration we can be sure of some uplifting news

Tomorrow, Ward should hopefully flesh out and expand on today's news

[mknight] 13/10/2020 18:25

NM might just surprise the market with LaHueca drilling results tomorrow .What a move that could be when most have written it off .

[goldrush] 13/10/2020 17:04

Lowtrawler

Re La Hueca....As it is more gold focussed my thoughts were that we have been awaiting assays....But with Porvenir coming up trumps he went that route first.....Let's see what transpires....

[lowtrawler] 13/10/2020 17:00

CAD is to thinly traded to give any price guide. UK is the main market by far.

[diversification] 13/10/2020 16:48

What is the correlation like between CAD and U.K., does the U.K. lead the stock?

[lefrene] 13/10/2020 16:47

LT, hopefully saving the best until last? NM has indeed been lining up his ducks before BHP come out of purdah, so perhaps there's a golden goose to crown the table?

One wonders just how many potential predators are watching this unfold? If there are predators that want to take it from BHP, they will need deep pockets, very deep pockets.

I hope this turns into a banquet, and so far we are just watching the cutlery beginning to be laid out.