Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[bogotatrader] 12/10/2020 14:50

Colombus Day today

[cbeadle] 12/10/2020 14:39

Could be repeating the pattern of afternoon rises, this pattern has been prevalent for quite a while

[mknight] 12/10/2020 14:35

Yes i think so but looks like Cornestone is a no go . So i expect that Newcrest or BHP will go for cornerstone.

[lowtrawler] 12/10/2020 14:12

Mk, the news is being released for maximum effect this week. Decision day for cornerstone on Wednesday and so expect a deluge tomorrow / Wednesday.

[mknight] 12/10/2020 13:44

The count of monte cristo .

Very true but hard to do .

Lets hope for another positive drilling report from Porvenir tomorrow . Thought we would have had it this morning if i am honest.

[the count of monte_cristo] 12/10/2020 13:30

As Jesse Livermore would have done, follow the trend and the line of least resistance and don't look for the small gains, look for the big gains...it's the waiting that makes the money.



“The good speculators always wait and have patience, waiting for the market to confirm their judgment.” -

"After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!"

[mknight] 12/10/2020 13:25

Maybe but for me it a guide that i can pay up to 55p and be safe even without The regionals .

Everybody has there own way of working what they can pay up to i guess .

[lowtrawler] 12/10/2020 13:07

MK, that's in a bid situation. Unless there is a bid, the share price will reflect lower pricing.It is my contention that SOLG was undervalued at 25p and should have been 40p prior to Porvenir. However, it wasn't and so the 18p increase in price probably reflects Porvenir and Rio with Alpala still built in at 25p. That's probably fair for Porvenir and Rio at this stage but continues to undervalue Alpala.

[jlondon] 12/10/2020 13:07

FROM GOLDMAN SACHS:

"Goldman Sachs: Next year, we expect the LARGEST refined copper market DEFICIT [412kt] in over 15 YEARS due to the current positive DEMAND TRENDS. As a result, we have recently RAISED out copper forecasts to $7,000/7,250/7,500/t on 3/6/12 basis."

Link: [9 Oct 2020]

--

GOLD:
Kitco Hourly Quote: Gold - US$1,924 per ounce and silver US$25.08 [4 mins ago, Mon 12 Oct 2020]

Link:


Solgold*s Alpala has gold , copper, silver etc.

I am sure our learned suitors, City and everyone else including Mather knows the gold and copper & silver forecasts that all of the mining industry is basing their projects current or future on.

Also, the learned people all know that in solar, you need silver and for the Electric Vehicle revolution, you need copper. And GOLD for Keynesian X*s.

BHP gave Solgold £45m and paid 45p for their shares on a VALUATION report in 2018 and since then price of gold has gone up more [NON-BID PRICE IE PREMIUM] So, 42.9p now, Mon 12 Oct 2020.

[mknight] 12/10/2020 12:59

It also gives us a base value for Aplala of 55p probably 65p with 20% more .

So at 43p we are short of 12p just for Alpala .zero for the rest ..

[mirabeau] 12/10/2020 12:53

JL

Cheers fella

Appreciate your considered opinion

[jlondon] 12/10/2020 12:40

Mirabeau

What Lefene said in essence is correct and I will elucidate it in very clear language. Moons ago, the Solgold share price was 26p. Provenir changed all that and it started rising from 1 Oct 2020 once the RNS came out.

The suitor therefore may have flown the kite that they were possibly thinking of 55p so that is 22% PREMIUM which is norm for the 1st time carrot. The board will say it under-values the business [Mather said that in his Orbis gold sale]. So, maybe, if norm, the suitor comes back with a bit more, say another 15-20% MORE.

If Mather doesnt agree still, then PROXY fight is on and may go to the wire with Mather saying it will be the institutions that decide.

ME:
Since you ask, I can afford to wait it out and see RNS*s as they roll in. Why? All the points and articles that I posted over this weekend. However, this is my own conviction and others will have their own choice to make - run with the money or sit and wait to see how things are going along. NO ONE can make that decision for others.

The crux of the game will be whether Mather will be able to come up with the funding package per the Solgold Presentation next year ie the balance and WHAT NPV will the off-takers OFFER and what will the financiers offer. There is an ARTICLE that I have not posted before nor anyone else seen it - its from Livermore, an institutional holder of Solgold shares and it was said that ASSETS ARE NEEDED. So, hence why Mather mentioned Blanca to piggy back etc. Mather will be drilling Rio and it is in the RNS. It may interest folks here that on Hotcopper DGR, they posted that Tribeica, the fund manager in Australia financed the co but took SHARES of Solgold & IRR as security. So, whatever Mather sells or how he is going to manage the financing is now half-way through the process.

[mknight] 12/10/2020 12:27

Lefrene

I agree with you .

Once we know Porvenir is what we think it is i am sure he will let Alpala go .

[jlondon] 12/10/2020 12:26

"Gold at record prices while DISCOVERIES are mostly NON-EXISTENT in gold mining."
Mon, 12 Oct 2020 [Chart with screenshot: "Gold discoveries >2M ounces of gold [Millions of troy ounce].


[This chart has been posted all over Twitter in the last few days]
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DD
I got cut off wifi - other than NEVADA FRANCO paying NPV $3 billion [per smicker] on LSE Solgold forum = £2.3 billion [1.3 exchange rate]. Nevada gave Solgold $100 million in exchange for 1% NSR at NPV $3bn [£2.3 bn vs Solgold current mkt cap of £889 million]

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Ingo Hofmaier, Executive GM of Corporate Finance is working on development capital, off-takes etc ["Off-take expressions of interest received for copper-gold concentrate from Alpala." - 16.4.20

So, they ie traders for off-take etc, financiers will be working ON NPV - will it be better or just below Nevada Franco*s $3 billion NPV. So, if Nevada did not give a NPV implied of US$3 billion, then the NSR will have to be higher than 1%. So everything has been out there in the open. As such, Nevada*s NPV of $3billion which is HIGHER THAN SOLGOLD*S MKT CAP [see above] means that they have valued Alpala at that NPV.

"

[lefrene] 12/10/2020 12:21

If NM has ambitions to become a big miner, then he will need cash to get on and drill and prove up some of those other 75 locations. Thus one would expect he will need to sell something to get the cash to get drilling. Alpala would seem to be the thing to sell, but in order to get a fair price for it, he needs to demonstrate that he can borrow enough to get it up and running. The ball seems to have finally started rolling, no doubt because BHP is coming out of purdah in a few days.

[mknight] 12/10/2020 12:20

Mirabeau.

Solgold are drilling on all available sites with a liecence more than that they cannot do . If they were to sell Alpala and the government speed up the liecences then i am in no doubt Solgold would be as good or better for Ecuador than any majors out there .

[novicetrade68] 12/10/2020 12:15

hxxps://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_R5RSqBZUTbmH4jDKigqVMg

[mirabeau] 12/10/2020 12:12

JLondon

What do you believe will be the outcome here?:

An offer for SOLG?

Or SOLG to prove up each asset and then flog it with proceeds returned through a special divident

The production option is a non-starter imho

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Low

The Ecuadorian government want to see furious drilling and the majors producing. I don't believe it can afford SOLG raising capital every time it wants to expand its drilling campaign.

The majors can deliver on all fronts,

[lowtrawler] 12/10/2020 12:05

LF, 6 drills at Porvenir is going to blow our exploration budget. If another 6 are needed at Rio, we will need a capital raise early next year just to keep working those sites. It's unlikely we will drill anywhere else in the near future.As I said, a track record of 5 from 5 may increase the value of unexplored sites from 3p to 10p but the bulk of the share price will come from our visible finds.We know that Alpala supported a 25p share price before Porvenir (ignoring it should be 40p) and so 3 equally attractive sites at the point of publishing a PFS, would support a share price of 75p. In reality, multiple sites will be worth more than the sum of their parts and so 120p would not be unreasonable (no bid required). Any bid would need to exceed 150p. The elephant in the room is "do we have another 2 equally attractive sites?"Personally, I believe both sites are actually more attractive than Alpala but most people would likely consider that an unreasonable expectation at this stage.

[jlondon] 12/10/2020 11:53

DD
That*s exactly what John Cronford of Master Investors in his article - NPV must be cut to accomodate the price of buying Alpala, cost of building etc = 50p take-out. Liberum *s thoughts are that the suitor is giving a 55p carrot.

BHP themselves via their own internal valuation offered £45m to Solgold at 45p [15.10.18 RNS.

Currently, Solgold*s share price is 42.94p and mkt cap £889million.
---
DE GREY on ASX: The share price is A$1.38 with a market cap of A$1.77 BILLION = £983 MILLION.

From "Degrey has an aspirational goal of delineating 5MOZ at HEMI."
Link: hxxps://degreymining.com.au
---

So, Solgold has MRE 3 at 23 MOZ+ and Mather in his Mining Journal article @2018 stated that boil that down to gold EQUIVALENT, Solgold has 8 5 MOZ of gold.

I showed that Barrick Gold, No 1 in gold mining has some 200 MOZ approximately and Barrick*s market cap is US$49 billion @ US$28.05 on the American NYSE.

----

So, in conclusion, De Grey on the ASX must be selling at the right or wrong price is up to the investors &the market in Australia given they are ONLY aiming for an aspirational 5 MOZ of gold but with a market cap of £983 million!!

Solgold with an MRE 3 has a market cap of £889 million for 23 MOZ of gold [MRE 3] or 85 MOZ of gold EQUIVALENT [Mather*s].

So, Solgold is selling FOR LESS than DeGrey: MKT CAP TO MKT CAP for 23MOZ/85 MOZ EQUIV GOLD VS ASPIRATIONAL 5 MOZ OF GOLD [aspirational is hoping]

---

Barrick Gold has some 200 MOZ of gold all in the kitty [see my post yesterday] and Solgold just on MRE 3 has 23 MOZ gold or 85 MOZ EQUIVALENT gold. Is Mather dreaming
of becoming the "NEXT EMERGING MAJOR IN ECUADOR" per the title of All Solgold Presentations?

I have seen FRANCO NEVADA*S valuation they paid to Solgold get the 1% NSR [RNS 14.9.20] - Franco gave Solgold $1 0 0 million based on NPV. I am not sure I can post it but on LSE Solgold forum, I saw smicker give the figure out at US$3 billion [£2.3 billion at 1.3 exchange rates]. I saw the figure in a BROKER note which mention the deal NPV paid.

It is NOT US$3 billion, let*s put it that way NOR BELOW.

So, is Franco WRONG given that Solgold*s mkt cap is only £889 million @42.9p vs US$3 billion or £2.3 billion implied?

---
So, all food for thought - so if not BAREBONE 50p from Cronford, or Liberum*s 55p from the city or even BHP*s valuation dept of £45 million giveen to Solgold at 45p, what is the price DD?

--
I have now seen on Twitter that the NEW chart is out - DISCOVERIES OF 2MOZ OF GOLD ARE NOW PRACTICALLY ALMOST NONE. I will fetch the link after this.

I am afraid that if the market has gone short on Solgold shares,they might be on the wrong foot?

[lefrene] 12/10/2020 11:44

LT, there's also NM's track record, and the more finds get drilled and proved. so thus value will be added to those sites as yet undrilled. Whichever way one looks at it, the resources of Solg are immense, and the current valuation does not imv reflect anywhere near the value here.

[mknight] 12/10/2020 11:40

I think many are forgetting the price is only 43p .Alpala on its own is worth probably 60p .

Porvenir could be worth 4 times Alpala we just dont know yet . The other sites could be worth nothing or 500 billion .

So we are at a stage where no one can really predict the end value all we do know is it is along way north of 43p .

So for the moment its a strong buy , when we get more information we can look at the shareprice at that time and buy hold or sell depending on the share price at that time .

[greenelf] 12/10/2020 11:29

So the fund managers are the only people who value correctly? LolOh, please.THERE IS NO CORRECT VALUATION. ALL is in the eye of the beholder.There is a range of value based on methodology, risk perception and risk taking psychology.NPV is fine as a general measure. Yes, it is not the be and end all.

[lowtrawler] 12/10/2020 11:28

LF, as you have seen in recent years with SOLG, nobody assigns any significant value to unproven sites. If we end up being 5 for 5 with our current exploration, value may jump from 3p per share to 10p but probably no more.Getting to MRE for Porvenir and Rio Amarillo will allow a better assessment of value but with less than one completed drill hole between them, the true value of those locations has yet to be reflected. We are speculating on whether the sites can be open pit, what the mineral content might be, that the utilities and infrastructure can be put in place etc etc. A lot of the questions will receive answers over the next few weeks and so value will be added along the way. Until then, we are trading on trust and gut feel.

[dozyduck] 12/10/2020 11:13

jL - important to bear in mind that NPV's are extremely elastic and not a sensible price for anyone to pay to buy. They are used as spurious 'targets' by brokers puffing a share ! 1) Who on earth would pay 'up front' for 55 years of profit - which is what an NPV is 2) What discount rate (ie his cost of capital) will a buyer use to decide what he can afford. 3) Even if there were a solid 'target - ie a solid value that can be crystallised at some date - why on earth would any one pay it ? (if he wants to make a profit) - ie a 'target' will never be reached in any sensible market 4) as explained on here - an NPV is only worth what it is to someone who owns it already. If he has to pay to buy it, his effective capital cost is the build cost PLUS what he pays to buy - so reducing his own NPV. None of these basic pieces of maths are ever taken account of by brokers (or eg NM) whose sole aim is to puff a share as much as possible. The fact is I believe that any deal to buy a mine is usually priced merely to suit the buyers's particular need at that time - whether above 'market price' or below it. Is why such prices are never a guide to any other. They are used by brokers who are too lazy (or inexperienced) to know how to properly value anything. In my days in fund management, fund manages knew never to take any notice of brokers's analysts' prices or forecasts. They kept the analysts at their desks merely to act as advisers on the details of companies and markets - never as any sort of expert on value.