Smurfit Kappa Share Discussion Threads

[cfro] 12/9/2023 15:52

I don't suppose you have the link for that call? I've been searching and searching on their website but just can't find it..

[essentialinvestor] 12/9/2023 14:53

Call is worth a listen, some interesting questions on the Q&A.

[justiceforthemany] 12/9/2023 13:41

Overpaying by 10% or $1Bn is no great shakes.

[essentialinvestor] 12/9/2023 13:21

Yup as mentioned debt is part of what the market may be attempting to factor in.

It's all a bit messy ATM as so many moving parts, but that may lead to opportunities.

[elsa7878] 12/9/2023 13:12

Taking on $9 billion in debt and adding to their own debt (of euro 3.5 billion) by paying $1.3 billion in cash. Can see why some aren't keen.

[essentialinvestor] 12/9/2023 13:00

Pre deal I thought SKG at £33 was overbought (at least short term) and at £26,
a few weeks earlier, oversold (unless we are heading for a wider macro cliff).

[essentialinvestor] 12/9/2023 12:56

* based on hitting the planned integration synergies following year 1,
so deal completion say April(ish) 2024, you are looking well in 2025 to
hit those numbers and may be in to 2026.

There is no doubt SKG is the better business so the central question is can
the CEO and BOD work their magic on the business combination?..

[justiceforthemany] 12/9/2023 12:46

EPS will rise up to 20%.
The P/E will drop to a very low 5.5-6 at the current share price.

[essentialinvestor] 12/9/2023 11:15

Bought back what I sold last week.

Could be nearly 9 months to deal completion, so it's a bit messy in the meantime.

WestRock carries a significantly higher net debt burden than SKG,
so gearing for the newly merged business (on deal completion) also increases significantly v SKG.
Equity markets may also be attempting to factor this in.


Worth watching for a buying opportunity. SKG is given to fat % moves in either direction,
as we know.

[igoe104] 12/9/2023 11:07

Smurfit doing a press conference today, so could get a bounce over the next couple of days, as plans are being releaved.

Pleased to see a dual listing...

[cfro] 12/9/2023 08:58

Yes, that's much more interesting then, also Irial Finan as chair...


But hold on a minute whats this:


Smurfit Kappa's ordinary shares will be delisted from the premium
segment of the Official List of the UK Financial Conduct Authority (the
"FCA") and cancelled from admission to trading on the Main Market of the
London Stock Exchange (LSE), and Smurfit Westrock's ordinary shares will
be listed on the standard segment of the Official List of the FCA and
admitted to trading on the Main Market of the LSE;


So looks like they will have a dual listing after all. Gonna have to consider buying these back especially given the lower price..

[igoe104] 12/9/2023 08:37

Looks like Tony will be CEO of the new combined company, that's one positive at least.unfortunately more selling because some funds don't invest into US stocks...

[cfro] 11/9/2023 11:42

SKG is no. 8 in the worlds top ten packing companies with WestRock sitting at no. 2. This merger will create the largest, over-taking International paper at no. 1 spot (if competition rules allow it to go ahead).

Im sure SKG could have made it up the list on its own accord without a leg-up.

The main issue for me is whether Mr Smurfit will remain in charge and continue to call all the shots. If not there is no way i would invest, however, if he does then it might be a different story.

[essentialinvestor] 08/9/2023 14:03

9% off the market cap in 36 hrs, eh.

[cfro] 08/9/2023 13:34

Yep, agreed. Look at the price of Westrock. It floated in 2018 at $68 - it's less than half that now..

SKG on the other hand......Edit - (in same time-frame)

[pugugly] 08/9/2023 13:29

Stupid idea - Potentially a real value destroyer - Also possible regulatory problems.

[essentialinvestor] 08/9/2023 09:01

Near £29 on the UK price is my buy area, no guarantee that will be available.

[cfro] 08/9/2023 08:55

Interesting intel on Mark Atkinson igoe104....but clearly the market doesnt like this merger judging by the price reaction again this morning..

There is a few issues for me and one is losing the name "Smurfit Kappa". Of course "Smurfit" will be kept in the new name "Smurfit WestRock" but it seems a bit lost..

Also who will hold the power in the new merged company? Will Mr Smurfit have the ultimate say or will there be a conflict of interest in management decisions?

Another is the cancelation of the London listing. This is yet another great company leaving the LSE. They dont need to leave they can have a dual listing which would bring in a wider share base imo.

Not convinced this is the right strategy myself.

[essentialinvestor] 08/9/2023 06:55

A UKX exit IF the deal completes.

[yf23_1] 07/9/2023 22:56

Sorry, got a bit lazy there.

The premium listing segment imposes higher compliance and disclosure requirements than the EU-minimum standards necessary for a standard listed company.

[essentialinvestor] 07/9/2023 18:08

Found an article explaining the difference between a standard and premium LSE listing
but unable to post the link. A quick web search should bring it up.

[igoe104] 07/9/2023 18:07

I wouldn't mind international coming back with a bigger offer? I'm happy to stay aboard...

I spoke to Mark Atkinson about it, he knows the industry inside out, (on LinkedIn) as he's worked in it for many years, and he's got no issues with the merger...

If you sign up , to LinkedIn, and put Mark Atkinson in the the search you will be able to see the conversation...

[essentialinvestor] 07/9/2023 18:03

SKG is volatile at the best of times.

This may create an autumn buying opportunity,
need to see the deal terms and indeed if they can even reach agreement.

[yf23_1] 07/9/2023 16:08

and the Combined Group is
expected to list on the standard listing segment.
Anybody know what the difference is between Premium and this (I presume they're on about London listing).