Smurfit Kappa Share Discussion Threads

[moorsie2] 06/8/2018 15:11

Strong performance since results last week.

Market likes the fundamentals and opportunities here.

Fair play to the board for rejecting the IP offer earlier this year as the value now looks to be more than they were prepared to offer.

Mgt has 9 more months to do a transformative deal and put the company out of reach of any more take over offers.

[ygor705] 03/8/2018 10:42

Appalling artIcle by Tempus in the Times yesterday. Said that SK was in a sweet spot but then expressed a preference for DS Smith and Mondi because they had greater diversification! Financial journalists are getting to be as bad as analysts.

[soundbuy] 02/8/2018 09:28

Numis Add Old PT: 3,300.00 New PT:3,600.00 Reiterates

[ygor705] 01/8/2018 14:55

Excellent results from a company operating in a very strong sector. Onwards and upwards I think.

[soundbuy] 01/8/2018 12:09

H/T FT AV


Goodbody

Smurfit Kappa has reported H118 EBITDA of €724m (+27% yoy) which is in line with our forecasts of and compares to our forecast of €722m and consensus €707m. There was some variance in the mix with a slightly weaker than expected outcome in Europe offset by a stronger result in the Americas. This implies that growth accelerated from +22% in Q118 to +32% in Q218. Of note to us is how this is translating into the eps growth of almost 70%, reflecting the benefit of lower finance charge. Overall this is a solid set of numbers from Smurfit Kappa we are likely to upgrade our forecast for the contribution from Reparenco in due course with our underlying assumptions remaining unchanged. We believe these results are going to be well received with upgrades to follow.



In Europe, EBITDA has grown by 34% yoy to €587m which compares to our forecast of €595m. Corrugated volumes increased by 3% (lfl 2%) during the period while box pricing is up 7% (with a further c.2% to go) as management continue to recover the well documented increase in containerboard prices. Latin America also produced a strong set of results with EBITDA up 8% demonstrating a good recovery of input cost inflation. This reflects a 150bps increase in Americas margins which are expected to accelerate in H2.

[swedeee] 01/8/2018 10:49

was that ATH :—) best performer in my portfolio this year

[soundbuy] 01/8/2018 09:44

Market seems to agree..........

[moorsie2] 01/8/2018 07:55

very strong results

[soundbuy] 01/8/2018 07:52

Firing on all cylinders at present ...... some what flagged after IP walked but still let's leave it to the market ....

[ygor705] 24/7/2018 08:42

Agree again Moorsie but I think you have missed the point on Macfarlanes. I'm not expecting them to be a long term survivor but they operate, in their own way, in a vibrant and growing sector. That said, they are well down the food chain and a bigger shark is bound to catch up with them at some point!

[moorsie2] 24/7/2018 07:45

I do not understand the long term business model of MacFarlanes. They only find value by buying cheap from distressed manufacturers.. This was easy when there was over capacity but now that the markets are consolidating I do not see how they create enough customer value.

A corrugated packaging growth of 3% per year is actually huge. This compounded year on year is very difficult to match with incremental mill additions.

The long term value here is very interesting. The 3 main drivers of corrugated packaging demand seem to be population growth; greater urbanisation; and general investment in manufacturing industries including FMCG. All three things are and will continue to occur. Add to that that their product is the most environmentally friendly and economic of all packaging materials and you can see sector that has strong long term value opportunities

[ygor705] 23/7/2018 17:41

Agree Moorsie. I've been doing some background sector research which suggests that Ecommerce for the global packaging industry is likely to grow at 14.3% pa between now and 2022 against a wider packaging figure of just 3% pa. Big manufacturers want big packaging suppliers and the boxmaking industry is historically very fragmented. Bulk and innovation are going to be the name of the game and Smurfit has both. Am expecting further consolidation in the sector and opened a position in Macfarlanes Packaging earlier today. DS Smith also looks interesting.

[moorsie2] 23/7/2018 10:28

Half year results out within 2 weeks. I would expect to see some buying ahead of these results. The industry dynamics can only be very good

[soundbuy] 22/6/2018 07:47

Downside is the raft of RNSs.......zzzzzzzz........management overly keen to please.........

[farraige] 20/6/2018 15:38

With Jefferies rating and others, also the share price since the 6th June,it clearly
shows Smurfit management were right to reject the offer. International Paper made
a poor offer.

[soundbuy] 19/6/2018 16:08

Jefferies International today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Smurfit Kappa Group PLC (LON:SKG) and raised its price target to 3460p (from 2930p).

[soundbuy] 14/6/2018 10:53

Support from the open.........

[hermana3] 08/6/2018 08:36

Looking after no.1 them lot are

[montyhedge] 08/6/2018 08:14

This company been in the family three generations, I don't think ever be taken over. Would you want to be the one to sell the company.

[ygor705] 06/6/2018 23:31

My personal view is that consolidation is on the cards for the cardboard packaging sector in Europe. SKI may well weaken in the short term but with plastic facing environmental hurdles, cardboard looks set for even more growth than is coming from a buoyant internet delivery market. This company is well managed and I am anticipating further growth and perhaps interest from other interested players.

[montyhedge] 06/6/2018 13:55

This shareprice surely must fall, even with the best will in the world by connections to put a good spin on things, Bid talks off, thats it.