Smurfit Kappa Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2019 11:40

As with Mondi I keep a watch on SMDS, but only hold SKG.

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2019 11:19

Added those back again @ 21.04.

The 12 month low is under 19.50, so if a market sell off
really gets going, perhaps under 20 will be available?.

[ygor705] 04/3/2019 13:27

The market as a whole now seems to be prepared to ignore bad news. Looking bullish to me...at least for now!

[essentialinvestor] 04/3/2019 13:14

Sold some.

[essentialinvestor] 04/3/2019 09:25

Well if we get a pop on confirmation of a US China trade deal
then will sell a few. On any wider equity market weakness SKG tends to
whacked. Agree about the longer term secular drivers.

[ygor705] 03/3/2019 07:43

Venezuela has probably distracted people's attention from what was a very good trading story for SKG in 2018. Blame it on Maduro........ everybody else does! Concerns also continue about the cycle but imo other more fundamental changes are at work on the cycle ie. the inexorable trend towards internet shopping. If the U.K. High Street is under pressure from that trend (and it is) then some other form of delivery must be replacing it. To my mind it is the cardboard box and the bid last year from International Paper supports that view. On an adjusted earnings basis I make the the PE here 8.6 and DS Smith (one of SKF's major competitors) recently described his company as being 'bonkers busy'. Doesn't sound like a turn down to me and SKF look good value at this level.

[essentialinvestor] 28/2/2019 15:54

Added a small amount at 21.20. My strategy here as previously mentioned is
to sell some following a few strong days, and buy those back on weakness.
Very aware we may be at peak cycle, or arguably past it.

10 years in to an economic expansionary cycle, that must equate to about 100
in human years! ;.

[soundbuy] 28/2/2019 10:28

SKG the pick over MNDI judging by recent results from both.....still watching...

[essentialinvestor] 20/2/2019 10:24

Hp, from memory mentioned a share price of around £15 as a potential price target
when the current cycle rolls over, and would agree with that.

With cyclicals it's easy to underestimate the operational gearing which
acts to flatter the PE near cycle tops - cyclicals tend to look very cheap
near peak earnings, that can quickly reverse as recession hits.

Charlie Mungar has a saying along the lines of ...one of the most efficient ways to
destroy half your capital is to buy a cyclical stock near peak earnings.

That saying has stuck with me.

[essentialinvestor] 19/2/2019 08:46

In terms of volatility, it's been pretty much continuous.

SKG listed on the Irish stock market in 2007 at 16.50 EURO, the share price briefly
touched 21 EURO, before plunging at 2 EURO in 2009 (The original Jefferson Smurfit
delisted in 2002 following the PE takeover).

[essentialinvestor] 18/2/2019 15:32

Moorsie would remember what price the ROI listed shares got down to
during the financial crisis, from memory it was almost priced to go bust at one point.

You can buy atm for very approx 8/8.5X -so the market looks to be indicating peak
cycle earnings.

If this view is reconsiderd and the cycle longer than currently anticipated,
then we might yet see Moorsie's 30 level.

[dr_smith] 18/2/2019 14:30

EI. I don't know what didn't make sense.
You made comment that SKG suffers volatility.
I was merely asking an open question as to why you think that is.
I do know what the beta is.

[essentialinvestor] 18/2/2019 14:15

Your post makes little sense. A bit like investing in GFRD.

Packaging is a cyclical sector and SKG frequently
experience sharp % daily share price moves. You can look at the SKG beta which underscores the volatility. Longer term, substitution of some plastic packaging should be supportive.

I've not made any short term call on the SP, so issues such as BREXIT have little
relevance to an ROI domiciled company, unless you are referring to FX.

[dr_smith] 14/2/2019 16:30

Thank-you EI.
Does your gut tell you it is to do with:
1) fundamentals of SKG
2) fundamentals of packaging sector
3) The headline "unwanted exit from Venezuela" (maybe less volatile with Venezuela gone?)
4) The usual MM/Shorter games
5) Brexit
6) Other

I am also looking at SMDS, so your feel free to say if you think that suffers from like issues.

If you can answer that, maybe you can predict what I am having for tea.
(You caould be on to a winner with subliminal messages as I haven't decided yet. ;-) )

Dave

[essentialinvestor] 14/2/2019 15:32

The Q&A transcript is on SA for anyone interested.

If anyone is looking at buying here, this is not a stock for the faint hearted.
Rapid % moves are commonplace. If you can't live with volatility,
then perhaps think twice. Longer term the growth story, all be it in the context
of a cyclical stock, looks compelling.

[dr_smith] 14/2/2019 11:16

Thank-you Moorsie - I thought I was mssing something obvious.
From my reading, yes primary now London with Irish/Euro continued.

[moorsie2] 14/2/2019 10:42

yes bizarrely it is not listed on that website.

Primary listing I believe is on the London Stock Exchange with a euro secondary listing on the Irish stock exchange

[dr_smith] 14/2/2019 09:17

Thank-you Moorsie.
I have found a few of the sites with its Irish price listing, but I particularly want to see it via google finance ( I use google sheets with dynamic data feeds from google).

I have found this:

but it says FRA - I assume to be France, and shows little activity for last 5 days so can't be right.

[moorsie2] 14/2/2019 08:55

Here you go Dave



Just google Smurfit Kappa Euro share price

[essentialinvestor] 13/2/2019 13:01

Thought we would get a 4/5% move as mentioned, and that's where we are atm.
Very solid report imv.

[moorsie2] 13/2/2019 08:40

Market leading ROCE

Record ever profits

AND Crucially the comment that 2019 has started off well....

Can only see these appreciate back to around 30 from here

[capercaillie] 13/2/2019 08:22

ROCE 19.3% nice number

[soundbuy] 13/2/2019 08:02

Though what the mkt thinks..............

[soundbuy] 13/2/2019 08:01

Read very well...........