Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[anley] 30/7/2018 13:36

Good on you PPVN..........

[ppvn] 30/7/2018 13:28

Hi NMRN (and everyone else!)

I bought at a similar time to you though I started buying at 19p down through the drop (but from memory the lowest I got was around 17p - it's also why I own loads more of these than I otherwise would!). I'd have bought more sub 22p mid last year but I hadn't got any funds clear to make a difference to my holding so I didn't bother.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I don't see why they couldn't justify an share price of at least 70p if it's non dilutive or small element. That'd give a market cap of $5bn, which I don't think is necessarily unreasonable given the pessimistic forecast of $0.7bn/pa up to an optimistic ebitda of $3.4bn/pa.

If they continue to sign TorPs, if the price of fertilizer keeps climbing, if they build the mine without too serious an incident - well I'm retiring early.

[skinny] 30/7/2018 13:03

My lowest price paid 7.40p over 3 years ago - I can wait :-)

[81lucky] 30/7/2018 12:27

PPVN
Agree with your synopsis. 40-45 is indeed conservative as it reflects worst case dilution scenario.

[not my real name] 30/7/2018 12:15

PPVN,

Just checked and my first purchase was Nov 2016 at 23P. Very soon after they dropped to about 15p I think and I didn't buy. I made my big investment at the time of the open offer but even then paid over 20p for them. My timing was lousy but now have an average of 22.2P so more than happy.

Double from here would definitely see me reduce my holding to a more comfortable figure so I hope you are right.

NMRN

[not my real name] 30/7/2018 12:02

PPVN,

Morning fellow de-ramper!

NMRN

[ppvn] 30/7/2018 11:52

81lucky, thanks for the additional clarity, realised I didn't really answer the question!

I personally believe (and others are welcome to disagree) that 40-45p upon stg2 being agreed is very conservative.

If sirius are able to deliver on stg2 with little to no dilution my personal view is that the share price could comfortably double. With a finance package in place to take us through to revenue, the largest risk to equity holders (I.e. dilution) will be removed. Sure, building a mine is incredibly risky, but an overrun or problem, assuming they are not insurmountable, would in my opinion be less risky than a dilutive stg2.

[john henry] 30/7/2018 11:29

O/T as investors in SXX you may be interested in HMI

[lenses] 30/7/2018 11:21

Note the date from when this can occur:

"The Issuer will have the option to redeem all, but not some only, of the outstanding Bonds:

-- At any time on or after 19 December 2018 at par plus accrued interest if the Call Value of the Ordinary Shares underlying a Bond shall have been at least US$ 350,000;"

The window is closing.

I am now concluding Staley's: "This has enabled us to facilitate an orderly conversion for bondholders and optimise our capital structure ahead of stage two financing later this year." comment is an expectation that the 'Herd' will happily take up all the new issue from further conversion as the positive newsflow continues. They may waive, but they will drown............. in an orderly way of course!

L.

[eurofox] 30/7/2018 11:21

JW,

NMRN is simply telling it as it is but then i suppose that is not simple enough for you. he is certainly not de-ramping, and anything anyone says on these boards has no chance of having an impact on anything that "the big boys" do.

go back to your thread and talk to yourself.

[blindsquirrel] 30/7/2018 11:19

NMRN
Thanks

Johnwise
The posts of NMRN generally seem balanced and not a ramp or deramp . More worrying is your attacks on anybody that offers a different opinion than yours which seem to be just posting information that is old and publicly available.....and only positive, I guess you now think I'm a deramper as you put it lol. BTW I'm a long holder

[johnwise] 30/7/2018 11:09

Quarterly Review Flythrough June 2018

Video


Diaphragm Walling Process Animation

Video

[johnwise] 30/7/2018 11:08

Not My Real Name has been posting De Ramps for weeks, pure made up fantasy, no link available to confirm his ramblings ?

[not my real name] 30/7/2018 11:00

blindsquirrel,

At todays exchange rate that would be 41.08p. The second part of you question is the difficult one to answer. Is it good for the shareholders? 100% yes. The CBs being shorted is what is holding the price back.

Will the price go up? When the bonds are converted that will release 800m new shares on to the market. Any already shorted will be given back to the original lender so won't impact the price. If that leaves too many for the market to absorb that will result in the share price falling but if a large buyer was to make a move, and that would be an excellent time to buy, then the share price could stabilise or even rise.

Bear in mind 800m new shares at 41p is adding £328 million to the conpanies market capital so a drop in share price would be understandable if there was no news and no buyer.

NMRN

[81lucky] 30/7/2018 10:59

Just to complete your question, blindsquirrel, after PPVN,s informative answer, yes it is good for the share holders. When all the Calls are taken up the uncertainty should go and stabilise the share price in longer term.
The rise in share price now is in anticipation of what's to come. After 40-45p the ST2 news will have been built into the price. Any news after that will have limited impact.(Always in my own opinion, of course)

[johnwise] 30/7/2018 10:51

Quarterly Review Flythrough June 2018

Video

[y1phr1] 30/7/2018 10:44

Yes hopefully

[christopher logsdon] 30/7/2018 10:40

Speculative

[johnwise] 30/7/2018 10:38

Is the Sirius Minerals share price on track to hit 60p this year?

Video

[johnwise] 30/7/2018 10:37

Is the Sirius Minerals share price on track to hit 60p this year?


Video

[blindsquirrel] 30/7/2018 10:33

PPVN
Thanks